2004 Indiana gubernatorial election

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2004 Indiana gubernatorial election

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
 
Nominee Mitch Daniels Joe Kernan
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Becky Skillman Kathy Davis
Popular vote 1,302,912 1,113,900
Percentage 53.2% 45.5%

County results
Daniels:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Kernan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Tie:      40–50%

Governor before election

Joe Kernan
Democratic

Elected Governor

Mitch Daniels
Republican

The 2004 Indiana gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2004, to elect the governor of Indiana.

Incumbent Democratic governor Joe Kernan was defeated by Republican Mitch Daniels. Daniels' victory was the first time the Republican Party had been elected governor since 1984, and gave the party control of all the important statewide offices.[1] It was also the first time an incumbent governor had been defeated since the Constitution of Indiana was amended in 1972 to permit governors to serve two consecutive terms.[2]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Withdrew

Campaign

Frank O'Bannon had been re-elected governor of Indiana in 2000 and was prevented from running for governor again by term limits. His lieutenant governor, Joe Kernan, on December 15, 2002, said that he would not be a candidate for governor.[3] State Senator Vi Simpson and Joe Andrew then vied for nomination for the next ten months. However, on September 13, 2003, O'Bannon had a stroke and died, resulting in Kernan taking over as governor. Kernan decided two months later, on November 4, 2003, that he would run for governor in 2004 and was unopposed in the Democratic primary after both Simpson and Andrew dropped out.[2]

Results

Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Kernan (incumbent) 283,924 100.00
Total votes 283,924 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Withdrew

Campaign

Former White House Director of the Office of Management and Budget Mitch Daniels easily defeated conservative activist Eric Miller in the Republican primary on May 4, 2004.[5] The Republican candidate for governor in 2000, David M. McIntosh, had earlier dropped out of the race after President George W. Bush gave his support to Daniels. Daniels had quit as White House budget director in 2003 so he could return to Indiana and run for governor. President Bush came to South Bend, Indiana before the primary to support Daniels, and the President's nickname for Daniels, "My Man Mitch", became his campaign slogan.[6]

Results

Daniels
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Miller
  •   50-60%
Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mitch Daniels 335,828 66.40
Republican Eric Miller 169,930 33.60
Total votes 505,758 100.00

General election

Campaign

Daniels campaigned by traveling throughout Indiana in his RV visiting all 92 Indiana counties at least three times.[2] Kernan fell behind in the polls in May 2004 and never caught up, despite closing the gap in September after attacking Daniels' plan to sell an Indiana utility to an out of state firm.[2] The economy of Indiana was a major issue in the campaign with Kernan, as incumbent, facing pressure over the state's budget troubles.[7]

In addition to the two major party tickets, there was the Libertarian ticket of Kenn Gividen and Elaine Badnarik.[8][9]

All three candidates took part in two debates during the campaign. The first was held on September 28, 2004, at Franklin College with the candidates clashing over the state's economy, prescription drugs and the extension of Interstate 69 from Indianapolis to Evansville.[10] The second debate was held on October 17, 2004, in New Albany, Indiana. Negative campaigning was the major issue.[11]

Between Daniels and Kernan the two candidates raised over 28 million dollars, easily surpassing the previous record set in 2000 of 19.2 million dollars.[12]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Likely R (flip) November 1, 2004

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mitch
Daniels (R)
Joe
Kernan (D)
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA[14] October 27–29, 2004 587 (LV) ± 4.1% 52% 44% 4%

Statewide Results

Indiana gubernatorial election, 2004[8]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mitch Daniels/Becky Skillman 1,302,912 53.21% +11.54%
Democratic Joe Kernan/Kathy Davis (incumbents) 1,113,900 45.49% −11.06%
Libertarian Kenn Gividen/Elaine Badnarik 31,664 1.29% −0.48%
Write-ins 22 0.00%
Majority 189,012 7.72% −7.16%
Turnout 2,448,498 57%
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

County Results

Kernan won 17 of Indiana's counties compared to 73 for Daniels. The candidates finish tied in 2 counties.[15]

County Daniels Votes Kernan Votes Gividen Votes Total
Adams 62.9% 8,350 36.3% 4,816 0.7% 99 13,265
Allen 57.2% 73,689 41.9% 53,899 0.9% 1,183 128,771
Bartholomew 59.4% 16,858 38.8% 11,008 1.8% 519 28,385
Benton 60.8% 2,432 37.2% 1,498 1.7% 69 3,999
Blackford 51.2% 2,741 47.9% 2,567 0.9% 46 5,354
Boone 70.9% 16,189 27.3% 6,326 1.3% 305 22,820
Brown 55.0% 4,010 42.8% 3,118 2.2% 164 7,292
Carroll 59.2% 5,090 39.4% 3,387 1.3% 115 8,592
Cass 56.9% 7,946 41.6% 5,808 1.6% 221 13,975
Clark 49.0% 20,471 50.2% 20,964 0.9% 360 41,795
Clay 54.3% 5,724 44.3% 4,677 1.4% 148 10,549
Clinton 63.8% 7,537 35.0% 4,129 1.3% 148 11,814
Crawford 49.3% 2,231 49.3% 2,231 1.4% 60 4,522
Daviess 59.5% 6,223 38.7% 4,049 1.8% 183 10,455
Dearborn 61.3% 12,514 37.2% 7,573 1.5% 297 20,384
Decatur 63.4% 6,355 35.2% 3,524 1.4% 140 10,019
DeKalb 59.8% 9,242 39.0% 6,012 1.2% 181 15,435
Delaware 48.0% 22,917 50.6% 24,132 1.4% 663 47,712
Dubois 57.1% 9,385 41.9% 6,871 1.0% 169 16,425
Elkhart 62.7% 38,430 36.5% 22,406 0.8% 503 61,339
Fayette 53.4% 4,981 45.3% 4,224 1.3% 121 9,326
Floyd 50.1% 16,869 49.1% 16,503 0.8% 279 33,651
Fountain 61.6% 4,786 37.1% 2,878 1.3% 101 7,765
Franklin 59.4% 5,822 39.4% 3,862 1.2% 114 9,798
Fulton 58.4% 5,103 40.3% 3,513 1.3% 110 8,726
Gibson 50.1% 7,289 48.1% 7,101 1.1% 166 14,556
Grant 57.2% 15,543 41.8% 11,376 1.0% 275 27,194
Greene 51.7% 6,791 46.7% 6,123 1.6% 213 13,127
Hamilton 73.0% 76,433 26.1% 27,316 0.9% 920 104,669
Hancock 67.4% 18,825 31.3% 8,746 1.3% 359 27,930
Harrison 53.7% 9,242 45.3% 7,809 1.0% 171 17,222
Hendricks 68.6% 35,761 30.2% 15,691 1.2% 641 52,093
Henry 56.0% 11,408 42.6% 8,674 1.4% 289 20,371
Howard 53.7% 19,885 45.2% 16,742 1.1% 415 37,042
Huntington 67.1% 10,484 31.7% 4,953 1.2% 183 15,620
Jackson 58.8% 9,587 40.0% 6,527 1.2% 191 16,305
Jasper 58.2% 6,781 40.4% 4,701 1.4% 167 11,649
Jay 56.2% 4,537 42.8% 3,453 1.0% 80 8,070
Jefferson 51.1% 6,542 47.7% 6,109 1.2% 150 12,801
Jennings 55.4% 5,806 42.8% 4,482 1.8% 190 10,478
Johnson 66.9% 34,269 31.7% 16,253 1.4% 701 51,223
Knox 48.5% 7,569 50.0% 7,797 1.5% 228 15,594
Kosciusko 71.0% 20,047 27.9% 7,885 1.1% 316 28,248
LaGrange 63.2% 5,748 35.2% 3,171 1.1% 97 9,016
Lake 33.7% 61,720 64.9% 118,697 1.4% 2,617 183,034
LaPorte 38.5% 16,234 59.4% 25,049 2.1% 881 42,164
Lawrence 65.0% 11,480 33.5% 5,904 1.5% 257 17,641
Madison 51.4% 28,142 47.5% 25,972 1.1% 623 54,737
Marion 46.5% 148,825 52.3% 167,097 1.2% 3,895 319,817
Marshall 60.6% 10,745 38.2% 6,756 1.2% 204 17,705
Martin 53.7% 2,664 44.4% 2,205 1.9% 94 4,963
Miami 60.9% 8,155 37.8% 5,062 1.3% 179 13,396
Monroe 44.5% 22,031 53.1% 26,317 2.4% 1,192 49,540
Montgomery 66.2% 9,639 32.4% 4,711 1.4% 199 14,549
Morgan 64.6% 16,716 33.8% 8,740 1.6% 424 25,880
Newton 54.5% 3,164 43.6% 2,531 1.9% 111 5,806
Noble 61.3% 9,570 37.6% 5,863 1.1% 176 15,609
Ohio 52.5% 1,512 46.1% 1,328 1.4% 41 2,881
Orange 56.4% 4,818 42.4% 3,621 1.3% 109 8,548
Owen 55.0% 4,179 42.7% 3,249 2.3% 176 7,604
Parke 53.8% 3,745 44.6% 3,101 1.6% 108 6,954
Perry 43.0% 3,559 56.2% 4,640 0.8% 64 8,263
Pike 41.1% 2,517 57.3% 3,510 1.6% 99 6,126
Porter 43.2% 27,565 55.1% 35,206 1.7% 1,108 63,879
Posey 52.6% 6,252 46.5% 5,525 0.9% 109 11,886
Pulaski 57.8% 3,185 41.1% 2,267 1.1% 61 5,513
Putnam 60.8% 8,002 37.8% 4,984 1.4% 185 13,171
Randolph 56.8% 6,274 41.9% 4,628 1.3% 146 11,048
Ripley 59.1% 6,925 39.6% 4,635 1.3% 151 11,711
Rush 61.9% 4,529 36.6% 2,676 1.6% 116 7,321
Saint Joseph 45.3% 49,198 53.8% 58,327 0.9% 1,000 108,525
Scott 44.7% 3,862 54.3% 4,681 1.0% 90 8,633
Shelby 61.9% 9,862 36.9% 5,885 1.2% 194 15,941
Spencer 52.3% 5,183 46.5% 4,612 1.2% 114 9,909
Starke 46.6% 4,024 52.2% 4,539 1.5% 131 8,694
Steuben 60.2% 7,684 38.5% 4,915 1.3% 165 12,764
Sullivan 44.2% 3,687 54.4% 4,530 1.4% 116 8,333
Switzerland 49.3% 1,780 49.3% 1,780 1.4% 48 3,608
Tippecanoe 54.9% 28,458 43.4% 22,504 1.7% 865 51,827
Tipton 60.5% 4,729 38.1% 2,973 1.4% 108 7,810
Union 61.5% 2,040 36.7% 1,217 1.8% 59 3,316
Vanderburgh 48.9% 34,129 49.9% 34,819 1.2% 863 69,811
Vermillion 39.5% 2,769 58.8% 4,121 1.7% 118 7,008
Vigo 42.4% 16,804 55.6% 22,054 2.0% 806 39,664
Wabash 64.9% 8,691 34.1% 4,569 1.0% 134 13,394
Warren 56.0% 2,214 42.5% 1,679 1.5% 58 3,951
Warrick 53.8% 13,877 45.2% 11,678 1.0% 262 25,817
Washington 59.2% 6,419 39.6% 4,297 1.2% 134 10,850
Wayne 52.5% 14,530 45.4% 12,565 2.1% 595 27,690
Wells 66.4% 8,071 32.7% 3,979 0.9% 113 12,163
White 57.5% 5,980 40.9% 4,260 1.6% 167 10,407
Whitley 62.9% 8,332 36.0% 4,758 1.1% 149 13,239

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. ^ "Republicans to stand alone at state's helm". The Indianapolis Star. November 7, 2004. Archived from the original on November 10, 2007. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
  2. ^ a b c d "Daniels vows changes to government, economy after ending Democratic rule". The Indianapolis Star. November 3, 2004. Archived from the original on June 5, 2011. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
  3. ^ "Indiana election results 2004". The Washington Post. November 24, 2004. Retrieved February 20, 2008.
  4. ^ a b "2004 Official Primary Election Totals" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State.
  5. ^ "The Race for Indiana Governor Is Now Set". NFIB.com. May 5, 2004. Archived from the original on November 12, 2008. Retrieved February 19, 2008.
  6. ^ "Daniels wins Ind. GOP nomination for governor". USA Today. May 4, 2004. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
  7. ^ "GOP, Daniels see breakthrough to governor's office". CNN. November 1, 2004. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
  8. ^ a b "Indiana General Election November 2, 2004, Statewide". Indiana Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved April 21, 2011.
  9. ^ DeAgostino, Martin (June 30, 2004). "Libertarians vow to end property tax". Newspapers.com. The South Bend Tribune. Retrieved March 7, 2021.
  10. ^ "Indiana gubernatorial candidates outline differences in debate". Online NewsHour. September 29, 2004. Retrieved February 20, 2008.
  11. ^ "Indiana gubernatorial candidates spar over negative campaigning". Online NewsHour. October 18, 2004. Retrieved February 20, 2008.
  12. ^ "Spending Soars in 11 Gubernatorial Races". Fox News Channel. November 1, 2004. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
  13. ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  14. ^ SurveyUSA
  15. ^ "Indiana General Election November 2, 2004, by County". Indiana Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved November 9, 2008.

See also