Prelude to the Russo-Georgian War

Prelude to the Russo-Georgian War
Part of 2006-2008 Georgia-Russia diplomatic crisis Georgian-Abkhaz conflict Georgian-Ossetian conflict
Map of Georgia and its conflict zones prior to the Russo-Georgian war
Date 6 March 2008 (2008-03-06) - 7 August 2008 (2008-08-07) Location Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) Result Russian invasion of Georgia
Belligerents
Georgia	Russia  Abkhazia  South Ossetia
Commanders and leaders
Mikheil Saakashvili Vano Merabishvili Davit Kezerashvili Davit Bakradze Eka Tkeshelashvili	Vladimir Putin Dmitry Medvedev Sergey Lavrov Anatoly Serdyukov Sergey Bagapsh Mirab Kishmaria Eduard Kokoity Vasily Lunev

The prelude to the Russo-Georgian War is the series of events, including diplomatic tensions, clashes, and skirmishes, that directly preceded the August 2008 war between Georgia and the Russian Federation. Though tensions had existed between the two countries for years and more intensively since the Rose Revolution, the diplomatic crisis increased significantly in the spring of 2008, namely after Western powers recognized the independence of Kosovo in February and following Georgian attempts to gain a NATO Membership Action Plan at the 2008 Bucharest Summit; and while the eventual war saw a full-scale invasion of Georgia by Russia, the clashes that led up to it were concentrated in the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two separatist Georgian regions that received considerable Russian support over the years.

In the first months of 2008, Moscow took a series of steps that solidified its presence in Abkhazia by lifting its embargo on the region on 6 March and establishing official ties with both it and South Ossetia on 16 April. During this time, Georgia reported an increase in military buildup in the secessionist republic, in response to which it launched a drone reconnaissance program over Abkhazia to document what it alleged were Russian troop movements. The downing of a Georgian drone by a Russian military jet on 20 April was followed by a unilateral decision by Russia to increase the size of its peacekeeping force in the region and the deployment of Railway Troops at the end of May to repair parts of a strategic railroad in Abkhazia. The arrival of railway troops was followed by a series of explosions throughout Abkhazia that Tbilisi claimed to have been part of a campaign to justify the presence of Russian peacekeepers. These explosions included a deadly blast targeting separatist officials and civilians on 6 July.

Until the end of June, much of the conflict between Russia and Georgia was concentrated in Abkhazia, as were international efforts to negotiate a peace settlement. Among the latter were the Hadley-Bryza Plan which saw the Bush administration attempt to negotiate an end to the conflict between Tbilisi and Sokhumi and the Steinmeier Plan, designed by Germany to postpone debates on the political status of Abkhazia while encouraging economic partnership and trust-building measures between the two. In both cases, as well as in other, less important efforts by the European Union and the OSCE, the potential deals failed as Russian-backed Abkhaz separatists refused to reach a compromise before a complete Georgian withdrawal from the Kodori Valley, the last Georgian-held stronghold in Abkhazia and location of several clashes in previous years, including the Achamkhara incident in July 2008.

In early July, the theater had moved to South Ossetia, where skirmishes between Ossetian militias and Georgian troops turned deadly on 3 July following the attempted assassination of pro-Georgian South Ossetian leader Dmitry Sanakoyev. The International Independent Fact-Checking Mission on the Conflict in Georgia has described the events of July and early August as "low-intensity warfare". International concerns for an impending war increased as Russia held the Kavkaz-2008 military exercises in the North Caucasus, involving tens of thousands of troops training for an intervention in what some described as being Georgia. By the end of July, clashes between Georgian and South Ossetian positions in Tskhinvali and neighboring villages became daily by the end of July, only to become increasingly violent in August. On 7 August, the day when Georgia accuses Russia of having brought into South Ossetia several troops outside of its peacekeeping capacity, a series of clashes killed both Georgian and South Ossetian troops, peacekeepers, and civilians. Despite a number of unilateral ceasefires declared that day by Georgia, violence continued and culminated with the launch of a Georgian operation into Tskhinvali, usually seen as the start of the war.

Experts and governments have come at odds over which side to blame for the escalation of tensions during the months that led to the war. Tbilisi and many of its partners have accused Russia of purposely preventing conflict resolution and organizing provocations to destabilize an already fragile situation on the ground, while Moscow and the separatist governments have claimed that the Georgian government organized a series of false-flag operations to justify a military solution to the frozen conflicts.

Relations between Georgia and the Russian Federation developed in a difficult context of conflicts and civil strife throughout the former Soviet Union when the latter dissolved in 1991. In the early days of the independent Georgian Republic, its president Zviad Gamsakhurdia maintained a staunchly anti-Russian stance, accusing Moscow of seeking to destabilize Georgia and supporting separatists in South Ossetia. In turn, the Kremlin backed a coup against Gamsakhurdia in the winter of 1991-1992, bringing to power former Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze. Shevardnadze found himself at odds with Russia as the latter backed Abkhaz separatists in a deadly war in 1992-1993 that led to the ethnic cleansing of Georgians in Abkhazia and the displacement of close to 250,000 Georgians. Georgia nonetheless joined the Moscow-led Commonwealth of Independent States in 1993 in exchange for Russia's assistance in helping the Shevardnadze government put an end to the civil war pitting him against Gamsakhurdia.

Under the respective presidencies of Shevardnadze and Boris Yeltsin, Georgia and Russia sought to build friendly relations. The two countries signed a free trade agreement in 1994 and Russia supported a global trade embargo against separatist-held Abkhazia in 1996. At the 1999 Istanbul OSCE Summit, Moscow agreed to withdraw its military bases from Georgia by 2001. This trend was however strained as Georgia showed signs of seeking to align with the United States. The rise to power in Russia of Vladimir Putin brought a more assertive Russian position towards its neighborhood,^[1] with the new Russian leader postponing the withdrawal of bases from Georgia and unilaterally engaging in a bombing campaign in Georgia's Pankisi Valley in search of hidden Chechen terrorists.

The Rose Revolution of November 2003 that brought to power in Georgia the pro-Western government of Mikheil Saakashvili further complicated ties with Russia, despite attempts by both sides to normalize relations in the immediate aftermath of the revolution,^[1] as seen with Russia's assistance in the Palm Revolution of Adjara, the participation of Russian corporations in the major privatization drive at the center of Georgia's economic reforms, and the final withdrawal of Russian bases from Akhalkalaki and Batumi in 2007. Georgia's Rose Revolution was soon followed by Ukraine's Orange Revolution and similar movements across the post-Soviet space, while Saakashvili sought to form alliances with liberal and democratic groups throughout Eastern Europe,^[2] seeking to replace the CIS with the pro-Western GUAM[3] and openly declaring Georgia's desire to join NATO. Tbilisi found a close ally in the United States, leading to what US diplomat Ronald Asmus would describe as a "de facto cold war between Moscow and Tbilisi,"^[4] while the International Independent Fact-Checking Mission on the Conflict in Georgia (IIFFMCG) would later describe bilateral ties as "the most precarious ever between the Russian Federation and a neighboring state formerly belonging to the USSR."^[5] By the time the war began in 2008, there were reportedly 100 permanent American military advisers in the Georgian Armed Forces and more in the power structures and administrative organs of the country.^[2] Under Saakashvili, Georgia also sought to integrate into the European Union, with the country being included in the European Neighborhood Policy in 2004.^[6]

This foreign policy orientation went against^[2] Russia's imposed conditions for a normalization of bilateral ties, which were the renunciation of Georgia's NATO orientation, the recognition of Russia's special interests in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the authorization of a Russian military intervention in the Pankisi Valley.^[7] Meanwhile, Tbilisi sought a rapid settlement of the separatist conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia that would result in their reintegration into Georgia, a position that made improvements with Russia, according to the IIFFMCG's analysis, "almost impossible."^[8]

Russia considerably increased pressure on Georgia as soon as January 2006, when the explosion of a gas pipeline in North Ossetia caused Georgia to be left without most of its energy resources in the middle of winter. Tbilisi responded by cutting its dependence on Russian gas and developing a strategy to transform the South Caucasus into an independent energy corridor bringing Azerbaijani and Central Asian energy resources to Europe while bypassing Russia.^[9] In June 2008, American political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski theorized that the Kremlin was seeking to gain control of the strategic Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline by causing conflict in Georgia. In the spring of 2006, Russia imposed a trade embargo on Georgia, banning the imports of mineral waters and wine in an attempt to apply economic pressure on the country, while hostile rhetoric increased on both sides, with President Saakashvili accusing domestic opposition forces of collaborating with Russia^[10] and comparing Russia to the "barbarous tribe of Huns".

In September 2006, Georgian law enforcement detained 10 Georgian citizens and four Russian GRU officers in Tbilisi over espionage charges, causing a diplomatic crisis and Russia recalling its ambassador from Georgia.^[11] Days later, the Georgian police besieged the Russian military headquarters in Tbilisi in search of alleged suspects involved in a 2005 terrorist attack in Gori. In response, Abkhaz and South Ossetian separatist leaders Sergei Baghapsh and Eduard Kokoity were invited to meet with Putin in Russia, while the latter imposed a travel ban to and from Georgia. The 2006 espionage controversy led to an anti-Georgian campaign in Moscow, with local police launching raids on Georgian-owned businesses, the withdrawal of Georgian-origin students from public schools, and the mass deportation of Georgian migrants from Russia, leading to three deaths in the process.^[12] British expert Mark Galeotti believes that Russia drew up plans to remove Saakashvili from power in 2006, when the North Caucasus Military District began staging increasingly elaborate and large military exercises,^[13] while Putin later admitted he had ordered the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to draw up plans for an invasion of Georgia following the espionage scandal.^[14]

Military tensions began in March 2007, when Russian helicopters shelled Georgian positions in the Kodori Valley, a high-mountain region within Abkhazia under Georgian control.^[15] On August 7, 2007, an unexploded Russian air-to-surface missile was found in the village of Tsitelubani, near the South Ossetian conflict zone, though various theories have surfaced about this latter incident, from that of a false-flag operation by Georgia to a special operation by Russian military hardliners without the direct knowledge of the Kremlin. Two weeks later, Georgian forces allegedly downed a Russian military aircraft over the Kodori Valley.

Despite these tensions, Mikheil Saakashvili used his second inauguration speech in January 2008 to speak at length about the normalization of ties with Russia. He called "spoiled relations with Russia" the biggest regret of his first term and invited Putin to visit Georgia, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended the inauguration.^[16] On February 21, Saakashvili met with Putin at the latter's residence in Novo-Ogaryovo, agreed on a lifting of the travel ban, and launched negotiations to establish joint border controls at the Roki Tunnel and Psou river,^[16] two contentious points with the separatist regions. These negotiations would prove to be fruitless as Russia unilaterally lifted the trade embargo on Abkhazia in March, starting a series of events that eventually led to the war in August. The failure to open joint border checkpoints also resulted in Georgia's refusal to lift its veto on Russia's admission into the World Trade Organization, with Tbilisi suspending talks on the matter on April 29.^[17]

In 2008, tensions had reached a low point. One senior Russian official later listed Russia's reasons for engaging in a war against Georgia, including establishing full control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia by removing Georgian-held enclaves, pushing the conflict line deeper into Georgian territory, forcing Georgia to sign a non-use-of-force treaty with the separatist republics, weakening Saakashvili's power and strengthening his domestic opposition by putting him under constant internal pressure, and putting an end to Georgia's NATO integration attempts.^[18] Meanwhile, historian Ucha Bluashvili analyzed that Saakashvili's will to launch a direct operation to bring the separatist territories back under control was inspired by his original success in Adjara, a belief that the international community would pay closer attention to the South Caucasus in case of military conflict, a conviction within his administration that Russia would not directly intervene and that the next US presidential administration following George W. Bush would not be as supportive of Georgia, and similarities with the 1999 Croatian Operation Whirlwind.^{[19] [20]} However, most experts believed that Georgia would seek to avoid confrontation with Russia as Saakashvili's bid for NATO integration required domestic stability, the Georgian economy would not be able to sustain a protracted military operation, and any military conflict would risk losing the support of the Western bloc.^[21]

Since the last years of the Soviet Union, Georgia has been rocked by separatist conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two autonomous regions backed by Russia. Open warfare began in South Ossetia in January 1991 when Georgian president Zviad Gamsakhurdia launched the National Guard on its capital Tskhinvali to confront armed separatist groups. The war ended with the overthrow of Gamsakhurdia a year later, resulting in the displacement of 60,000 Ossetians and 10,000 Georgians,^[22] while ceasefire terms were negotiated under the Sochi Agreement of June 1992, dividing South Ossetia into Ossetian-controlled and Georgian-controlled enclaves, creating a Joint Peacekeeping Force with Georgian, Russian, and North Ossetian battalions (known as the JPKF), and creating a tripartite Joint Control Commission (JCC) to regulate the situation in the conflict zone.^[1] In December 1993, an OSCE mission was established to assist with the political settlement of the conflict.^[1]

In Abkhazia, years of ethnic tensions between the Abkhaz minority in the autonomous republic and its Georgian majority culminated in an open war when Georgian central troops launched a military operation there in August 1992, under the guise of protecting the Transcaucasian Railway. The war lasted for more than a year and resulted in one of the bloodiest conflicts in the post-Soviet space, with nearly 30,000 deaths and 200,000 Georgian IDPs following the Fall of Sokhumi in September 1993. The Moscow Ceasefire Agreement of May 1994, later endorsed by the United Nations Security Council, created a peacekeeping force of up to 3,000 men supplied by the CIS, although Russia was its sole provider.^[1] It also established both demilitarized Security Zones and Restricted Weapons Zones on both sides of the ceasefire line, which was set as the Enguri River.^[23] In addition, the United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) was created in August 1993^[1] and strengthened in July 1994^[24] to supervise the implementation of the ceasefire. In December 1993, the UN Secretary General's Group of Friends of Georgia was created by the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany for international cooperation to mediate the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict^[25] and in 1997, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan appointed a Special Representative on Abkhazia.^[26]

Though the South Ossetian conflict remained mostly frozen throughout the 1990s with no progress in bilateral talks but several high-level meetings between both sides,^[27] the Abkhaz conflict remained a high-tense situation over the refusal by Abkhaz separatists to allow the return of Georgian internally-displaced persons. In January 1996, the CIS imposed a trade embargo on Abkhazia to pressure it into compromising with the central Georgian government over the IDP issue,^[28] but the lack of political will prevented any settlement^[29] and a brief armed confrontation in 1998 forced another 30,000-40,000 Georgians out of Abkhazia.^[30] UN Special Representative Dieter Boden proposed in 2001 a conflict settlement solution, known as the Boden Plan and later endorsed by the UN Security Council, that would have granted Abkhazia the status of a sovereign entity within Georgia while rejecting its secession claims and ruling out any unilateral changes to the confederate system, but Sokhumi rejected it and tensions continued to increase until another armed clash in 2001 in the Kodori Valley, a high-mountainous region in northern Abkhazia under Georgian control since the end of the 1992-1993 war, a clash that killed nine UNOMIG officers.^[31] By 2003, there were signs of progress in conflict settlement, with the Geneva Process established as a platform for regular direct negotiations between Abkhazia and Georgia under the mediation of the Group of Friends in February^[32] and the Sochi Process launched by Eduard Shevardnadze and Vladimir Putin in March to discuss the rehabilitation of the Transcaucasian Railway in Abkhazia.^[33]

Though Russia was formally a mediator and peacekeeper in both the Georgian-Ossetian and Georgian-Abkhaz conflicts, it continued to support indirectly the separatists in both conflicts. By 2000, Russia had imposed a visa regime on Georgia but not on Abkhazia and South Ossetia^[34] and around the same time, Moscow launched a "passportization" program to distribute Russian passports to locals in both breakaway republics.^[35] In 2007, Russia paid 600 million rubles in direct pensions to Abkhaz residents and 100 million to South Ossetians, while Georgia accused Russia of engaging in a "progressive annexation" of the two regions by integrating them into its economic, legal, and security space.^[36] The domestic government structures in Tskhinvali and Sokhumi were overwhelmingly run by the Kremlin, with key power positions handed over to Russian nationals.^[35] The IIFFMCG later described the situation in the early 2000s as both regions being "largely under the influence of Russia, if not more directly, then at least by means of a vetoing position."^[1] Both the UN and the OSCE agreed to let Russia be the sole peacekeeping force in the conflict zones, something that analysts have argued was done out of a lack of attention in the South Caucasus by Western powers.^[37] In 2003, the European Union appointed a Special Representative for the South Caucasus to help mediate conflicts in Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, but with little effect.^[6] The International Crisis Group later described the European involvement in the region prior to 2008 as "working around the conflict instead of on the conflict."^[38] Under the Saakashvili administration, Tbilisi described Russian troops stationed in both regions "not as peacekeeping, but as keeping in pieces," referring to Moscow's alleged blocking of conflict settlement solutions.^[8] In July 2006, the Parliament of Georgia adopted a non-binding resolution rejecting Russia's role as a mediator and peacekeeper.^[39]

In South Ossetia, Eduard Kokoity, a strongman described as "fiercely anti-Georgian",^[13] came to power in 2001 and soon came at odds^[40] with the new Georgian government following the Rose Revolution. By that time, the region had become a haven for contraband and local markets became a major point of the drug trade between Russia and the Caucasus,^[41] causing Tbilisi to increase pressure on separatist authorities in the summer of 2004.^[42] An armed clash in August resulted in a failure by Tbilisi to establish control over Tskhinvali and permanently damaged the conflict resolution process in the region.^[13] In September 2004, the Saakashvili administration proposed a three-stage conflict settlement plan involving confidence-building measures, the return of IDPs, full demilitarization, and a broad constitutional autonomy for South Ossetia within a federal Georgian state, negotiations on which plan stalled rapidly.^[43] In January 2005, Saakashvili announced in Strasbourg another peace plan that involved constitutional guarantees for an elected autonomous government, an autonomous legislature with discretion on social, economic, education, cultural, law enforcement, and environmental affairs, and automatic representation in all branches of the central government. The plan also envisioned the establishment of free economic zones and the creation of a special commission to investigate war crimes committed in the 1990s.^[44] Though Tskhinvali originally rejected the peace plan, it was later endorsed in October by both Russia and South Ossetia when Georgia started an international campaign against Russia's peacekeeping status^[45] and in December, South Ossetia stalled the plan by making a counter-proposal that would have essentially implemented the same measures but over several decades.^[46]

Tbilisi engaged in a double-sided approach towards South Ossetia after the failure of the 2005 peace plan. It increased pressure and isolation of the Kokoity government while engaging in a soft power campaign to win the favor of the civilian population through subsidy programs, pensions, health care, and television campaigns.^[47] In July 2005, Georgia organized a donors' conference in Batumi for South Ossetia without the participation of Kokoity.^[48] In November 2006, while Kokoity was reelected, Georgia held a parallel election in the territories under its control in South Ossetia, which resulted in the election of Dmitry Sanakoyev as an "Alternative President", with jurisdiction over Georgian villages in the conflict zone.^[49] Months later, Tbilisi legitimized Sanakoyev as Head of a Provisional Administration of South Ossetia based in the village of Kurta and sought to change the JCC negotiating format into a 2+2+2 format (Georgia and Russia, the European Union and the OSCE, and the Kokoity and Sanakoyev administrations).^[50]

Russia increased its grip over the two regions during the Saakashvili years. In 2006, it built a 2,500-man-strong military base near Tskhinvali^[51] and renovated the Soviet-era Ugardanta Base in Java, staffing it with troops independent from the JPKF,^[52] while shootings between South Ossetian militias and Georgian police became increasingly frequent.^[53] In June 2007, Russia and South Ossetia vetoed a third peace proposal that would have made Moscow a guarantor of peace, abandoned Georgia's efforts to change the peacekeeping format, created a special travel regime for South and North Ossetians, and launched major economic programs, with doors left open for a rejection of future NATO integration, an agreement compared to the 1921 Treaty of Kars with Turkey.^[54] It was only in 2008 that the OSCE recognized that the "existing negotiating format on South Ossetia was not conducive to conflict resolution."^[55] In Abkhazia, tensions increased after a special police operation in the Kodori Valley in 2006 expelled local warlords and allowed Tbilisi to establish full control of the valley,^[56] leading Sokhumi to demand the withdrawal of Georgian troops from the region. In March 2007, Russian helicopters fired at Georgian public infrastructure in the Kodori town of Chkhalta, while in September, a skirmish between Georgian special forces and a group of Abkhaz and Russian mercenaries led to the killing of several Russian GRU officers. In November 2007, a Russian peacekeeping unit tried to forcefully take control of a government-sponsored youth camp in the conflict zone village of Ganmukhuri, leading to Georgia launching a campaign to internationalize the peacekeeping force in Abkhazia.^[57]

On the other hand, Georgia was accused of engaging in hostile and militaristic rhetoric,^[58] especially related to Abkhazia, with Saakashvili promising IDPs a return to the region before "the next winter" during his 2008 presidential campaign.^[59] A January 2008 report by the UN Secretary-General talked of "a widespread sense of uncertainty and alarm was fueled by an almost daily flow of inaccurate reports originating in the Georgian media and the Georgian authorities themselves."^[60] Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili, before his 2006 resignation, talked publicly of military intervention against Tskhinvali and hinted at plans that would happen "whether the West agreed or not."^[61] And yet, that rhetoric came in sharp contrast with the several peace plans made by the Saakashvili administration over the years, Tbilisi's efforts to increase both UN and EU presence in the regions, and Western powers' lack of responsiveness to these initiatives.^[62]

Tensions between Georgia and Russia also increased in the context of Kosovo's declaration of independence and its Western backing.^[63][64] Vladimir Putin had drawn comparisons between Kosovo on the one hand and Abkhazia and South Ossetia on the other already in 2006 following the independence of Montenegro, when the Kremlin affirmed "respect toward the principle of territorial integrity", while "pointing out that South Ossetia's right to self-determination is an equally respected principle in the world community.".^[65] Speaking shortly thereafter, Putin questioned, "if someone takes the view that Kosovo should be granted state independence, then why should we withhold the same from Abkhazia and South Ossetia?" At the 2006 Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Russia and China declared separatism as one of the "evil forces challenging global security.".^[66]

Western powers rejected the notion that a recognition of Kosovo could create an international precedent legitimizing separatist movements, despite warnings, among others by EU Common Foreign Policy High Representative Javier Solana who predicted "unintended consequences for Georgia" in case of a Western recognition of Kosovo.^[67] Proponents of Kosovo's independence issued verbal reassurances over the years to the Saakashvili administration that there would be no Kosovo-Abkhazia-South Ossetia parallel, despite warnings by Russia that there would be an "asymmetric response".^[68] At the 2007 Munich Security Conference, Putin warned Western powers that he would "not allow Russia to lose any more of its periphery."^[68] Days before Kosovo's independence declaration in February 2008, Putin announced that Russia had "homework" prepared in response to an incoming declaration.

In the months leading up to Kosovo's independence declaration, Mikheil Saakashvili sought to warn his allies about potential risks for Georgia. In official letters to U.S. President George W. Bush and other Western leaders, he called on them to "keep Georgia and its vulnerabilities in mind" when working on a solution for Kosovo. Tbilisi saw a forced unilateral declaration as the worst possible outcome for its interests,^[69] which made Saakashvili push for a final settlement of the Kosovo crisis with a mutual agreement of partition with Serbia,^[70] which would in turn have created a precedent for a peaceful settlement of the Abkhaz conflict. Ronald Asmus criticized the lack of any preventive strategy to "shield Tbilisi or to mitigate such consequences - except for weak diplomatic talking points" and argued that in preparation for a Russian retaliation, the United States and the European Union should have pushed for an expansion of UNOMIG and the OSCE mission in South Ossetia to help control dynamics on the ground.^{[71] [72]}

On February 17, 2008, Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence and was immediately recognized by the United States and a majority of Western European powers. That same day, an informal gathering of CIS leaders in Moscow allowed Putin to call the development a "terrible precedent":^[73]

Essentially, [the Kosovo declaration of independence] is blowing up the whole system of international relations which evolved not only over the past decades but over the past centuries. Undoubtedly, it might provoke a whole chain of unpredictable consequences. Those who are doing this, relying exclusively on force and having their satellites submit to their will, are not calculating the results of what they are doing. Ultimately, this is a stick with two ends and one day the other end of this stick will hit them on their heads.

In private conversations with Saakashvili, Putin detailed his plan to eventually lift the Abkhazia trade embargo and establish relations with both the latter and South Ossetia,^[74] moves that precipitated the prelude to the August war and even threatened to "transform Abkhazia into Northern Cyprus" by establishing a direct military occupation of the province.^[75] On February 18, the Russian Federal Assembly passed a joint declaration calling on the Russian Government to change its policy towards frozen conflicts in the near-abroad^[76] and on March 13, the State Duma called a special session to discuss the recognition of separatist republics in the post-Soviet space. Boris Gryzlov, Chairman of the State Duma, held a meeting with separatist leaders Sergei Baghapsh and Eduard Kokoity and pledged that Russia would "reshape its relations" with self-proclaimed republics, while both used the Kosovo declaration as an opportunity to forge closer alliances with Russian hardliners.^[73] But within days, Putin dismissed allegations he would outright recognize Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Moldova's Transnistria, stating that Russia "would not behave like a monkey."^[77]

• 
  International recognition of Kosovo
• 
  International recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Putin told Saakashvili on February 17, "You understand, I cannot leave the West without a response after Kosovo, and I'm sorry but you are understood as part of this response,"^[67] to which the Georgian leader responded with reciprocal threats hinting at supporting independence movements in the North Caucasus.^[78] Russian legal experts developed a rhetoric claiming that Abkhazia's case for independence had "more moral, historic, and legal grounds" than that of Kosovo's^[79] and rejected the latter's "special case" claim. These arguments were vehemently rejected by Western powers, who themselves called Kosovo's independence casus sui generis.^[80] In a memo, The Heritage Foundation pointed at key differences between Kosovo and Georgia's breakaway republics:^[81] Kosovo spent seven years under direct UN administration before declaring independence, its recognition by the UN Security Council was only prevented by a Russian veto, independence for Kosovo was endorsed by UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari and was backed by the European Union, NATO, most members of the Kosovo Contact Group, and official UN bodies, and while Kosovo was itself a victim of ethnic cleansing, the same could not be said about Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Dutch academic Jelger Groeneveld underlined that Kosovo had to negotiate "standards before status", fulfilling over 100 conditions in good governance and securing the right to return to Serb IDPs before declaring its independence.^[82] Georgian Professor Levan Alexidze rejected the notion that a "generally recognized precedent undermining the inalienability of the territorial integrity of states" had been created by Kosovo, because of the latter's unique international and humanitarian factors.^[83] Marco Siddi of the University of Edinburgh argued that the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was a violation of international law just as much as that of Kosovo, as secession is only recognized under the principles of decolonization or deoccupation.^[84] Gearóid Ó Tuathail of Virginia Tech described Russia's claims of "humanitarian action" in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which it compared to Western support for Kosovo, as "cynical",^[73] while author Christopher Hitchens called the comparison "moral sloth".^[85] Vladimir ðorñević of Masaryk University rejected considering Kosovo's independence recognition as a precedent as that principle was not applied by Russia towards any other separatist debates in the world, despite existing conflicts in Northern Cyprus, Artsakh, Somaliland, and others,^[86] while a logical continuation of the Kremlin's arguments would have led to Russia recognizing Kosovo, which it has not to this day.^[87] Professor William Slomanson of the Thomas Jefferson School of Law has called for the establishment of an international legal definition of legitimate separatism to avoid drawing similar parallels.^[88]

In the wake of the Kosovo declaration of independence, Russia actively changed its policy towards Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but not towards Artsakh and Transnistria, indicated the precedent was used to apply pressure on Georgia,.^[66] while avoiding similar conflicts with Azerbaijan and Moldova.^[80] European Parliament Member Laima Andrikienė called on Russia to withdraw from the breakaway republics, abandon management of the frozen conflicts to the international community, and seek a "real chance to reach a long-awaited solution in everyone's interest" if it wanted to use Kosovo as an actual precedent.^[89] At an UN Security Council session in August 2008, Costa Rica rejected similarities between the cases of Serbia and Georgia because of the use of force by Russia.^[90] Russian allies mostly rejected the precedent as well, with Armenia, Kazakhstan,^[91] and Tajikistan admitting they could not recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia without doing the same for Kosovo, though some aligned with Moscow's position: when recognizing the independence of Georgia's separatist republics, Nicaragua argued that "Kosovo should have remained part of Yugoslavia but South Ossetia and Abkhazia were different for ethnic, historical, and geographic reasons."^[92]

Georgia met Kosovo's declaration of independence by entirely withdrawing from NATO's KFOR mission,^[93] while Saakashvili held a meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to discuss the implications of Kosovo's independence on Georgia.^[94]

The declaration of independence of Kosovo remains recognized as one of the causes that precipitated Russia's invasion of Georgia in August 2008^{[95] [96] [97]} and its eventual recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, with Putin announcing a series of "pre-designed plans".^[98] Russian leaders later compared Russia's invasion of Georgia with NATO's 1999 Operation Allied Force.^[73] Saakashvili, however, rejected the notion that tensions were launched by the Kosovo development: at a meeting with EU Foreign Ministers in May 2008, he pointed out to Russian advertisement campaigns pointing out to Abkhazia as a destination in the framework of the 2014 planned Sochi Winter Olympics, allegedly indicating already-existing plans to annex Abkhazia "much earlier than Kosovo's independence was recognized."^[99]

Russia would use the case of Kosovo again as international precedent to justify its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in 2022.^[100]

Georgia had considerably increased its military resources in the years leading up to the war, especially since the Rose Revolution and Georgia's announced desire to join NATO. From 2004 to 2007, military spending went from 1% of the national GDP to 8%, with a historical record being reached in 2007 with 1.5 billion GEL, or 9.2% of Georgia's national GDP, and an 840% increase from 2004.^[101] The number of active troops went from 20,000 in 2004^[102] to 33,000 on the eve of the war, while the Saakashvili administration introduced a reservist training program in 2005 that trained 100,000 reservists by 2008. In December 2006, the Georgian Parliament adopted a law requiring all men from 27 to 40 years old to undergo 18 days of compulsory military training once every two years. Tbilisi justified its military buildup with a general militarization of the South Caucasus, both Armenia and Azerbaijan experiencing higher military expenditures in the same years, and with an attempt to rapidly modernize the Georgian Armed Forces to meet NATO standards. Critics of the latter have argued that official US recommendations at the time pointed out to defense spending increases as being "over target".^[103]

In September 2007, a fifth brigade of 2,500 regular troops was added to the Georgian Armed Forces, bringing up the total of active servicemen to 32,000. Around the same time, the Georgian Ministry of Defense started the construction of a new military base in Khoni, near the Abkhaz conflict zone, the rehabilitation of the Kopitnari Military Airfield in Kutaisi, and the reconstruction of outdated military infrastructures in Vaziani, Vashlijvari, and Kobuleti.^[104] Describing the overall trend in Georgia's military buildup, the IIFFMCG stated that "few did not see this as a message,"^[105] while rhetoric from high-ranking hardliners close to the Saakashvili administration did little to quell those concerns. In March 2008, MP Givi Targamadze, the highly influential chairman of Parliament's Defense and Security Committee, stated his support for the reintegration of Abkhazia and South Ossetia "with the help of our armed forces."^[106] During a high-stakes and confidential meeting between Abkhaz and Georgian officials in Sweden in June 2008, MP Nika Rurua added that restoring Georgia's territorial integrity "would be achieved through war or peace."^[107]

Much of Georgia's military buildup happened with the direct assistance of the United States and other Western powers, notably Turkey, Germany, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic, as well as allies like Ukraine and Israel.^[108] According to Russian intelligence reports, before Russia's invasion of Georgia, Georgia was awaiting the delivery of high-technology weapons from France (including Mirage 2000 fighter jets and Mistral missile systems) and several Black Hawk helicopters from the United States.^[109] The Saakashvili administration justified the upgrading of Georgia's weaponry with its increased involvement in international security missions, with Tbilisi recommitting its participation in the Iraq war in March 2008 for another six months^[110] and announcing at the same time the deployment of 350 soldiers to Afghanistan by September.^[111] In turn, Russia criticized the close military ties between Georgia and NATO states, notably the presence of Western military advisers in the country and the holding of international military exercises on Georgian territory.^[60] In the months preceding the war, Russian and Abkhaz intelligence accused Georgia of amassing troops in the Kodori Valley and of holding regular military exercises near the Abkhaz conflict line,^[112] though these allegations were not confirmed by UNOMIG.

In response to international concerns, Georgia took a series of steps to reform its military. In 2004, Mikheil Saakashvili appointed the first-ever civilian to the post of Minister of Defense, while the latter's staff soon moved to a mostly civilian make-up, though critics argued that spending lacked transparency nonetheless.^[113] In May 2008, the Government of Georgia published a five-year budgetary plan that showed a progressive decrease in military expenditures to reach 2.3% of the national GDP by 2012.^[114] In preparation for the incoming clash, the Government walked back its plan and increased defense spending in June by an additional 300 million laris.

Within days of Kosovo's declaration of independence, a series of events took place in Abkhazia that led to a rise in tensions between Georgia and Russia. On February 28, Russia announced the creation of voting precincts throughout Abkhazia and South Ossetia for the 2008 Russian presidential election, a move criticized by Tbilisi. Georgian MP Shota Malashkhia claimed that ethnic Georgians in Abkhazia's Gali district were coerced to vote in the elections, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs delivered a formal protest to Russian Ambassador Vyacheslav Kovalenko. On February 29, Abkhaz separatists launched large-scale military exercises in the Ochamchire district, close to the ceasefire line,^[115] exercises that would be repeated in late March.^[116] On March 5, the People's Assembly of the Republic of Abkhazia held an emergency session to discuss "attacks against residents of Gali, including kidnappings, pogroms, activities of Georgian terrorist and raiding groups, and more," at the end of which it issued a call for the withdrawal of all Georgian presence from the Kodori Valley and for Russia, the United Nations, the OSCE, and "other international organizations" to "influence the Georgian government" against the use of military force and to force them to "put an end to their terrorist activities."^[60]

On March 6, in parallel with a NATO informal meeting in Brussels to discuss granting Georgia a Membership Action Plan,^[117] the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia announced Moscow's departure from the 1996 Decision of the Council of the Heads of State of the CIS On Measures to Regulate the Conflict in Abkhazia, also known as the Abkhazia Sanctions Treaty, a trade embargo on Abkhaz separatists first implemented to pressure them into allowing the return of Georgian IDPs. Though Russia had long been accused of regularly violating the treaty over the years^[118] and increasingly since the Rose Revolution, notably in private banking, energy, real estate, and transportation^{[119] [120] [a]}, Moscow justified its departure, citing a "change in the circumstances" on the ground and claiming that Sokhumi had been "fulfilling its obligations" in IDP resettlement, assessing that "most Georgian IDPs" had been returned to Gali,^[121] a claim vehemently denied by Tbilisi. In its explanatory note, the Russian MFA also justified its departure from the sanctions treaty with Georgia's "installation of a subordinate administration" in the Kodori Valley, referring to the Government-in-exile of the pro-Georgian Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia.^[122]

In withdrawing from the sanctions treaty, Russia called on other CIS member states to follow suit, although none would do so.^[b] Alexey Ostrovsky, chairman of the State Duma's Committee on CIS Affairs, argued that other states rejected Russia's call because of fears for their own domestic separatist issue, such as Moldova's Transnistria and Azerbaijan's Karabakh.^[123] Benita Ferrero-Waldner, European Commissioner for External Relations, accused Russia of "paving the way for recognition of Abkhazia",^[124] a view disagreed by US Assistant State Secretary Dan Fried at the time, calling the idea of recognition "too extreme".^[125] US officials, including UN Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, believed at the time that the withdrawal from sanctions were meant to facilitate the transfer of weapons to Abkhaz separatists.

Russian media reported that Vladimir Putin had warned Saakashvili about this decision already two weeks before during a meeting in Moscow.^[126] Georgia nonetheless condemned Russia's move. The Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called it "immoral and dangerous" as, it argued, it legitimized the ethnic cleansing of Georgians in Abkhazia and declared that a "new phase" was starting in the regional conflict.^[127] Parliament Chair Nino Burjanadze accused Russia of being involved in a "formal annexation" of Abkhazia, a comment shared by Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt. Georgia's UN Ambassador Irakli Alasania called the decision a "serious threat of destabilization" and criticized the United Nations for having "failed to resolve the conflict".^[128] Georgian MPs floated the idea of demanding 20 billion dollars from Russia for compensation for losses in Abkhazia and a resolution was drafted condemning Russia's lifting of sanctions and scrapping the CIS peacekeeping format,^[129] a resolution eventually dropped in hopes for Russia to walk back its decision.^[130]

Russia's withdrawal from the embargo was praised by the Abkhaz separatist authorities, who called on other states to follow Moscow's call.^[131] Ambassador Kovalenko called on Tbilisi to also lift its sanctions on Abkhazia, calling it "a way out of the deadlock",^[132] though officials in Moscow stated that the decision did not reject Russia's recognition of Georgia's territorial integrity.^[123] Leonid Slutsky, Chairman of the Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee, blamed the sanctions for the economic collapse and isolation of Abkhazia^[133] and stated that the withdrawal was a form of "encouragement" to promote conflict resolution.

Though many observers believed that the decision in itself did not change the situation on the ground as the sanctions had become inoperative for years,^[123] Georgia views the March 6 withdrawal as the first of a series of events that severely increased tensions between Tbilisi and its breakaway regions, eventually leading up to the war in August.^[134] This development was also a turning point for many of Georgia's international supporters to adopt a more open stance on Russia's role in the conflict, with the United States starting to back Tbilisi's calls for an internationalization of the peacekeeping force in Abkhazia after March 6.^[113] A September 2008 report by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe stated:^[135]

It will be difficult to pinpoint an exact date when the tensions started to escalate and develop to a point that military conflict became the option for both parties in the conflict. However, a key date is 6 March 2008, when Russia unilaterally withdrew from the 1996 CIS treaty on the imposition of economic sanctions on Abkhazia.

Despite Russian denials,^[136] Tbilisi claimed that the withdrawal of sanctions opened the doors for the large-scale sale of weapons to Abkhazia and at a meeting of the National Security Council on March 7, Mikheil Saakashvili declared a "policy of zero tolerance" towards the militarization of Abkhazia.^[137] And though sanctions on Abkhazia were lifted, Russia continued to enforce its 2006 embargo on the rest of Georgia.^[123]

On March 7, the People's Assembly of Abkhazia adopted a resolution calling on the international community, and specifically Russia, to recognize Abkhazia's independence.^[138] On March 15, during a speech to soldiers at the Gori military base, President Saakashvili rejected the signing of a non-use-of-force treaty with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, one of Russia's demands, as long as "existing agreements are being broken",^[139] a statement criticized by South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity, who accused Tbilisi of being "incapable" of having a constructive dialogue with the separatists.^[140]

Georgia had indicated a desire to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization since the 1990s when it joined the Partnership for Peace in 1994, contributed troops to the Kosovo Force in 1999, and declared its intent to integrate the Alliance during the 2002 Prague Summit. Relations between Tbilisi and NATO increased following the Rose Revolution, with a NATO office opening in Georgia and a special representative of the NATO Secretary General appointed in 2004 and Georgia being granted Intensified Dialogue in 2006. At a January 5, 2008 nationwide referendum, 77% of Georgians voted in favor of NATO membership, which led to Georgia making a formal request for a Membership Action Plan (MAP) on February 14, a step it saw as a guarantee for stability. The Saakashvili administration's eagerness to join NATO was not, however, shared by many Western powers, with German leaders underlining their "skepticism" throughout the process. Regardless, the two sides took several steps to deepen ties in the months preceding the war: on March 12, Georgia joined NATO's Cooperative Airspace Initiative (an airspace control database exchange program)^[141] and on March 26, the NATO-Georgia Council met for the first time in Brussels, bringing together ambassadors from each NATO member state and Georgia.

Russia was staunchly opposed to Georgia's integration into NATO, with Foreign Minister Lavrov declaring that Moscow would "spare no efforts to prevent" Georgia's membership.^[142] On the one hand, the Kremlin emboldened separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to apply pressure against Tbilisi, Russian NATO Ambassador Dmitry Rogozin warning that the "real secession of Abkhazia and South Ossetia" would begin as soon as NATO indicates that Georgia could join the Alliance^[143] and arguing that their independence would be legitimized as both territories rejected NATO integration. Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin stated that Georgia would lose the regions "forever" by joining the Alliance.^[144] The State Duma held discussions on a resolution calling on Vladimir Putin to recognize the independence of the breakaway republics were Georgia to join the Alliance.^[145] On the eve of the Summit, Abkhaz leader Sergei Baghapsh called on NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer to take into consideration Sokhumi's concerns before the Alliance made a decision,^[146] while Putin addressed both Baghapsh and his South Ossetian counterpart Eduard Kokoity in a letter, pledging "practical, not declaratory" assistance from Russia and calling both leaders "presidents". Moscow also issued indirect threats of conflict in case of the MAP being granted to Georgia and Ukraine: on March 25, Russian President-elect Dmitry Medvedev warned that a decision in favor of Tbilisi and Kyiv would "threaten European security",^[147] while Russian diplomats underlined the "risk of war" if NATO were to expand to the South Caucasus.^[148]

Tbilisi sought to appease Russian concerns by stating openly that NATO integration was not meant as a threat to Russian interests. Parliament chairwoman Nino Burjanadze recognized that Georgia's NATO aspirations aggravated ties with Russia but expressed hope for an "eventual" improvement in bilateral relations.^[149] These comments were in contrast with those of hardliners in the Georgian government, such as Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili, who stated openly that NATO membership would allow Georgia to open new energy routes to Europe bypassing Russia. Russian media engaged in a large-scale campaign against Georgia's NATO integration, described by Tajik journalist Oleg Panfilov as "information warfare", claiming that the "political elites" of Georgia were at odds with the views of "the people" and alleging that a new wave of NATO enlargement was part of a plan to launch a direct attack on Russia.^[150] In its campaign, Moscow sought to build on open divisions with NATO. On March 15, President Saakashvili stated that "huge pressure is being exerted on some European countries" to reject Georgia's MAP.^[139]

Georgia's NATO integration was most backed by the United States, although high-level officials in the Bush administration, namely Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates were at odds with the White House's most ardent neoconservatives, including Vice-President Dick Cheney,^[151] over when to grant the country the MAP.^[c] On February 14, the United States Senate passed Senate Resolution 439 urging the North Atlantic Alliance to grant both Georgia and Ukraine the MAP and President Bush gave his "unwavering support" on March 19 at a meeting with Saakashvili in the White House.^[152] Shortly before the April Summit, the Bush administration issued a formal list of its positions, underling that "NATO must make clear that it welcomes the aspirations of Georgia and Ukraine for membership in NATO and offers them a clear path forward toward that goal."^[153] During a visit to Kyiv on April 1, Bush once again reiterated his backing for the two countries' NATO integration, believing that granting the MAP would protect them from a growing Russian threat, would encourage them to pursue democratic reforms, and would be a reward for their "courage in being able to confront Russia to join the Western bloc."^[154] The United States was joined by a coalition of Central and Eastern European states in supporting granting Georgia the MAP, namely Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, and the Czech Republic, who lobbied the Bush administration for more active backing of Tbilisi and Kyiv,^[155] as well as Denmark and Canada.^[156]

Ahead of the Bucharest Summit, the Alliance was evenly divided.^[155] Germany, whose relations with Washington had been strained since its opposition to the Iraq war,^[157] led the anti-MAP coalition, arguing that Georgia had failed democratic standards in its latest presidential election^[79] and fearing a souring of its relations with Moscow.^{[d] [158]} On March 10, at a meeting with the Bundeswehr command in Berlin, Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected the notion that "states involved in domestic and regional conflicts" should apply for NATO membership^[79] and directly stated her opposition to Ukraine's and Georgia's integrations during a press conference with Vladimir Putin in Moscow.^[159] Germany was joined in its opposition with France,^[160] with Prime Minister François Fillon stating in an interview on French television that Paris would reject Georgia's request.^[161] In an attempt to reach a compromise, President Bush opened a back channel for negotiations with Berlin and Paris through his National Security Council[159] and though the sides sought a compromise through a proposal for a "Less than Membership Plan", talks failed when Saakashvili rejected it as "rubbish"^[162] and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier forced Merkel to back out of any deal.^[159] On April 4, Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy held a press conference ahead of the Bucharest Summit and formally opposed the integration of Georgia and Ukraine into the Alliance.^[158] In that, they were joined by Italy, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Greece, Luxembourg, Turkey, and Norway.^{[163] [164] [165]} Some states argued for the Alliance to review the question after the May Georgian parliamentary elections, while the strongest opponents wanted to see a resolution of the separatist conflicts before any decision could be made. Former Estonian Prime Minister Mart Laar criticized opponents of Georgia's NATO bid as "discouraging not only Tbilisi but other countries trying to embrace democracy."

The Bucharest NATO Summit took place on April 2-4, 2008 and was described as "the most contentious and dramatic NATO meeting ever."^[151] Discussions on Georgia within the North Atlantic Council spanned for more than 36 hours^[166] but the sides failed to reach an agreement on granting Georgia a MAP. An original compromise between Bush and Merkel saw the Alliance declare granting Georgia and Ukraine the MAP an "ultimate goal", a draft that was vetoed by Lithuania, Romania, and Poland,^[167] who forced the NAC to pledge future membership to the two countries. American foreign policy expert Angela Stent has called this compromise "the worst of both worlds"^[151] as it failed to provide a clear timetable,^[168] even though the Allies agreed to review the situation at the next summit in December,^[169] while sending Russia a signal that it could use existing conflicts to veto Georgia's NATO integration. Asmus criticized the Bush administration for never engaging in an all-out campaign to support Georgia's bid,^[164] while some have called the Bucharest Summit the first case of open divisions within the Alliance.

Russia extensively lobbied the Summit against Tbilisi's bid, first through Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko^[170] and then by Putin himself, who arrived in Bucharest after the Alliance's final decision^{[158] [171]} and congratulated Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer for "standing up to the Americans",^[172] while criticizing promises of future membership for Georgia and Ukraine and calling it a "direct threat" to Russia. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Merkel, and Sarkozy convinced Bush to sit down with Putin during the summit, a meeting during which the Russian leader spoke extensively against NATO enlargement and called Ukraine a "Soviet invention".^[173]

The December deadline set by NATO has been described as an incentive for Russia^[174] to "do everything" to prevent the integration of Georgia. Days after the summit, Russian Armed Forces Chief of Joint Staff Yuri Baluyevsky announced "steps of a different nature" to block Georgia's path, a statement described as a direct military threat by Georgian officials. Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov discussed publicly the need to refocus Russian manufacture on the "needs for war", while Nikolay Bordyuzha, Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, pledged to "respond to NATO's enlargement". The Saakashvili administration, influenced by the Bush White House,^[175] sought to put a positive spin to the Bucharest Summit decision, arguing that the promise for future membership was "even better" than the MAP,^[158] though privately, Georgian officials saw it as a "window of opportunity" for Russia to "blow up Georgia" before December to make the MAP unattainable. Analysts have argued that the Kremlin was emboldened to intervene in Georgia before the end of 2008 because of the Bucharest Summit. In a speech during the August war, Saakashvili blamed the conflict on NATO's failure to provide Georgia a clear path of integration in Bucharest, comparing the summit to the Munich Agreement:

When in April, in Bucharest, Georgia was denied the Membership Action Plan by some members of NATO, I warned the Western media at that stage that it was asking for trouble. Not only did they deny us the MAP, but they specifically told the world that they were doing so because of existing territorial conflicts in Georgia, basically inviting trouble. And I told the world, this is the worst thing one could say to the Russians, that there will be no NATO as long as there are conflicts, and the more there are of conflicts, less there will be NATO. And immediately after April, immediately after Bucharest – and I can tell you now that Russians perceived Bucharest, and I mentioned it and then some of the Western commentators made fun of me, saying that, oh, it – this hot-headed Saakashvili says this rubbish again. I told them Russia perceives this as a new Munich. Bucharest was perceived by them as a new Munich.

According to Asmus, Russia was emboldened not by the MAP decision, but rather by obvious signs of division within NATO, interpreting it as a sign of weakness in the West.^[176] Much like Kosovo's declaration of independence, the Bucharest Summit helped trigger a series of events that eventually led to the war in August,^{[158] [174]} and so despite attempts by Bush to appease Putin at a meeting in Sochi days after the summit.^[177] Polish President Lech Kaczyński threatened to veto all future EU-Russia negotiations before Georgia was granted the MAP.^[178] On the sidelines of the 34th G8 Summit in Japan, President Medvedev declared NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine a "red line" for Russia^[179] and on July 12, a new foreign policy concept paper approved by the Russian government formally pitted Moscow's against Georgia's Euro-Atlantic integration.^[180] Rogozin warned on July 8, a month before the Russian invasion, that Moscow "would not allow" NATO expansion in its "zone of interest". U.S. Senators Joe Biden and Richard Lugar later criticized NATO's "attempt to appease Russia by denying the MAP to Georgia and Ukraine" as Moscow soon began operations to "sabotage the peace process".

Though Russia formally played the role of mediator in the conflicts between Georgia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, it enjoyed a strong influence in the separatist governments years before 2008 and exerted control via key security officials and financial assistance to what Tbilisi called "Russian proxy regimes".^[181] In Abkhazia, these officials included, before 2008, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Pavlyushko (previously head of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in the region), Chief of General Staff Anatoly Zaitsev (also a high-ranking official in the Russian Ministry of Defense), and Deputy Security Council Secretary Alexander Voinsky (also a Commander in the Russian Navy).^[182] In South Ossetia, the power elite was described by Russian journalist Julia Latynina as a "joint business venture between KGB generals and Ossetian entrepreneurs using money allocated by Moscow",^[183] while the Kremlin was thought to hold a "direct line" with the office of local leader Eduard Kokoity, though questions remain as to who exerted influence on the latter from the Russian side, and all security-related decisions were made by Russian officers.^[184] In early 2008, the key South Ossetian leaders thought to be appointed by Moscow included Interior Minister Mikhail Mindzaev (a Colonel of the Russian Militsiya), Security Council Chairman Anatoly Barankevich (a Russian Army Colonel), State Security Committee Chairman Boris Atoev (a Russian citizen and former Soviet-era intelligence official), and Border Security Head Valery Chugunov (also a Lieutenant General of the FSB).^[185] Kokoity's cabinet staff included high-ranking GRU officials, such as former Russian Deputy Interior Minister Sergey Shadrin, who worked as a law enforcement adviser to Kokoity.^[186] On March 1, 2008, Russian Major General Vasily Lunev transitioned from Deputy Commander of the Siberian Military District to Minister of Defense of South Ossetia, a position he later admitted having taken as an "order from his superior".

On March 7, Sokhumi and Tskhinvali both made formal requests for Russia to recognize their independence, a day after Moscow's lifting of the Abkhazia trade embargo. In response, the State Duma held public hearings on the question on March 13, featuring the testimonies of officials from Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria^[187] in a closed session.^[18] In a report following the hearings, the Duma's CIS Affairs Committee issued a series of controversial recommendations, including a deepening of relations between Russia and the three breakaway republics, the establishment of diplomatic missions, the waiving of all trade tariffs on goods made by Russian-owned businesses in those republics, and increasing economic assistance to Russian citizens living there, although Duma Vice-Chairman Leonid Slutsky emphasized that "no decision was formally taken" against Georgia's territorial integrity. The Nezavisimaya Gazeta described the hearings as the "launch of recognition procedures". On March 21, the Duma adopted a non-binding resolution calling on the Putin administration to consider the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia^[18] and to actively defend the rights of Russian citizens in those regions by increasing the size of the Russian peacekeeping forces there.^[188] In response to the resolution, Georgia affirmed that Russia had "deprived itself of any political, legal or moral right to claim the role of a neutral and unbiased mediator in the conflict resolution process,"^[189] though Saakashvili originally sought to downplay the move as a "simple tactic" to pressure Tbilisi^[190] and claimed Putin had promised never to recognize the breakaway republics, a claim quickly denied by Lavrov.^[191] Shortly after voting in favor of the resolution, MP Konstantin Zatulin handed that any recognition should be postponed to the end of the year to avoid an escalation of tensions in the early months of the Medvedev presidency.

On April 3, just as the North Atlantic Council was rejecting Georgia's MAP bid in Bucharest, Abkhaz leader Sergei Baghapsh visited Moscow and met with high-level diplomats.^[192] According to Russian media, his visit included the launch of talks with Russia's Security Council on boosting bilateral ties, including through the provision of low-interest loans by the Russian Central Bank, a double taxation agreement, Abkhazia's integration into the Russian customs system, opening of maritime links, and reopening the Sokhumi International Airport.^[193] On April 8, the Russian Ministry of Justice communicated to its Georgian counterpart its intention to launch direct ties with the Abkhaz authorities over the extradition of Russian citizens held in Abkhaz prisons,^[194] a move condemned by Tbilisi and met with concern by the Council of Europe.^[195] By April 14, Russian media had leaked information that the Kremlin was preparing an executive decree establishing diplomatic relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, though Russian commentators feared that such a step would have a "negative impact" on the anti-Saakashvili opposition in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

On April 16, Vladimir Putin signed a decree establishing formal relations between the Russian government and local authorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia for a "comprehensive defense of the rights, freedoms, and lawful interests of Russian citizens".^[133] The decree instructed Russian federal and regional agencies to cooperate with their counterparts in the breakaway states in economic, social, scientific, and cultural fields, recognized official documents issued by authorities in Sokhumi and Tskhinvali, as well as companies registered in the two regions, authorized direct assistance in law enforcement and judicial matters, and deputized the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry's offices in Krasnodar and North Ossetia as consular offices with jurisdiction over Abkhazia and South Ossetia respectively.^{[196] [197]} Citing Tbilisi's refusal to sign a non-use of force agreement and to withdraw from its positions in the Kodori Valley, the decree also provided for "additional future steps", including military agreements, the deployment of Russian forces in the Gudauta military base of Abkhazia, the reopening of a naval base in Ochamchire, and recognition if Georgia were to join NATO,^[198] while blaming Georgia for forcing locals of being "hostages to inter-nationality conflicts".^[199] The Kremlin claimed that international law had set precedent for such decrees^[e] Despite a sharp rise in tensions following the decrees, Moscow denied having caused any crisis in bilateral relations and rejected the notion that the executive orders were aimed at establishing control over the breakaway regions.^[200]

The April 16 decrees were praised by separatist authorities, with Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba claiming that Abkhazia was "very close to recognition" and that Sokhumi was "not afraid of any backlash from Tbilisi"^[66] and President Baghapsh convening a Security Council session to discuss next steps.^[201] In Tskhinvali, Kokoity praised Putin's decision as "the only right solution to save the lives of Russian citizens" and called on Tbilisi to accept it "with calm".^[202] Georgia called the decree a "flagrant violation" of its sovereignty,^[203] as well as an attempt to legalize the annexation of the two republics by Russia.^[204] At a cabinet meeting held a day later, Mikheil Saakashvili described himself as "astonished and anxious about the provocative nature of Russia's moves" and called on Russia to "revise the decision",^[205] while dispatching his European Integration State Minister Giorgi Baramidze to Brussels and his Foreign Minister Davit Bakradze to Washington to mobilize international support.^[206] Also on April 17, Georgia formally requested an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council, though delays by the South African rotating presidency caused the session to be held only on April 23,^[207] by which time most discussions had shifted to the downing of a Georgian drone over Abkhazia by a Russian military jet. Saakashvili convened a National Security Council meeting on April 23, during which he warned that Russia was seeking to annex Abkhazia, and after which he made a televised address accusing Moscow of seeking to "change the world order unilaterally for the first time since World War II" and alleging that hostile actions had started in August 2007 with the Tsitelubani episode.^[208]

Reactions of the international community were much stronger following the April 16 decree than previous developments. US State Secretary Condoleezza Rice expressed her concern and held a phone call with her Russian counterpart over the matter,^[209] while Republican presidential candidate John McCain called the decree "de facto annexation" and US OSCE Ambassador Julie Finley accused Russia of openly siding with the separatists.^[210] On May 7, the US House of Representatives passed a non-binding resolution condemning Russia's provocative and dangerous actions and calling on Moscow to revoke the decree.^[211] Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt denounced the decree and expressed his belief that it was done to derail a new Abkhazia peace plan proposed by the Saakashvili administration. Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves blamed the decree on NATO's failure to grant Georgia the MAP in Bucharest,^[212] while the Riigikogu passed a resolution condemning Russia's decision to establish official links with the separatist authorities.^[213] Statements of condemnations were also issued by the leaders of Ukraine, Lithuania, Slovakia,^[214] and British Special Representative Brian Fall. The European Union called on Russia not to implement the decree,^[215] while a European Parliament resolution approved on May 28 criticized the decree as "not contributing towards finding a peaceful solution to the Abkhaz conflict."^[216] A group of 25 members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe issued a joint declaration calling for the UN to deploy a peacekeeping force in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to replace Russian forces. NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer urged Russia to "reverse these measures" and called on Tbilisi to "continue to show restraint".^[217] The Group of Friends of the UN Secretary-General found itself divided for the first time^[218] when Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States issued a joint statement expressing high concerns against Russia, a statement that led Abkhazia's Shamba to criticize the organization as being biased.^[219]

In the months leading up to the war, the leaders of the separatist republics also cultivated stronger ties with each other. On April 15, Kokoity traveled to Sokhumi to inaugurate the South Ossetian Embassy in Abkhazia, sign a bilateral customs agreement,^[220] and issue a joint declaration accusing Georgia of arming itself in preparation for an invasion of the two territories.^[221] Kokoity traveled again to Abkhazia on June 15 to discuss "the military threat from Georgia"^[222] and a week later, the leaders of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria agreed on a common defense pact.^[223] Abkhazia opened an embassy in Tiraspol in July.^[224] At the same time, North Caucasus political and civil institutions made public calls for the recognition of independence of the two Georgian secessionist republics, with the South Russian Parliamentary Association approving a resolution calling on Moscow to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia,^[225] the Liberal Democratic Party of North Ossetia launching a campaign for a referendum to "unite" South Ossetia to the Russian federal subject,^[226] and Abkhaz People's Assembly chairman Nugzar Ashuba visiting Chechnya in July.^[227]

Days after the decree was signed by Putin, Russia showed original signs of détente, with the Federation Council refusing to vote on the Duma's resolution calling for the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,^[228] while Putin himself hinted he would lift trade and transportation bans on Georgia,^[229] largely out of fear that Tbilisi would delegitimize the Russian military presence in Abkhazia. Upon the inauguration of Dmitry Medvedev as President of Russia on May 7, many thought a formal change in government could deescalate tensions, with Bush asking him to repeal the decree during their first phone call^[230] and Saakashvili telling his National Security Council he hoped Medvedev would "reverse course".^[231] But these expectations proved to be in vain, as Medvedev himself hosted Baghapsh in Moscow on June 26, the first official bilateral meeting between a Russian president and an Abkhaz separatist leader. One of the most ardent supports of Abkhazia's independence in Russia was Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, whose statements led to Georgian MPs Nika Rurua and Irakli Kavtaradze to call for him to be declared persona non grata,^[232] while Kokoity engaged directly with other Russian hardliners like communist Gennady Zyuganov and North Ossetian President Teimuraz Mamsurov. On July 1, reports showed that Gazprom was planning an oil and gas exploration survey off the coast of Abkhazia, while the corporation confirmed plans for a Russia-Abkhazia pipeline. The same day, ferry traffic between Sochi and Gagra was resumed after having been interrupted in 2003,^[233] while Abkhaz authorities discussed the launch of direct flights with Russia using the Sokhumi airport, despite a ban by the International Civil Aviation Organization.

The April 16 decree was viewed by Georgia as an early step in the prelude to the war,^[134] while Russian diplomats hinted that a formal recognition could be possible following a direct military clash.^[18] British journalist Robert Parsons suggested that Russia was provoking Georgia into hasty actions. Attempts by Georgian Catholicos-Patriarch Ilia II to defuse tensions through direct talks with the Russian Orthodox Church^{[234] [235]} also failed.

Part of Georgia's increased military buildup in recent years included the creation of a drone surveillance program, using around 40 Israeli-made Elbit Hermes 450s purchased in 2007. As ties between Abkhaz separatists and Russia increased and as Tbilisi accused Russia of lifting its embargo on Abkhazia as an excuse for the sale of arms, Georgia deployed its UAVs over the region to document Russian troop movements and military reinforcements.^[236] Tbilisi had accused Abkhazia of stationing over 1,000 troops in the Gali district,^[237] while Sokhumi claimed that Georgian forces had been amassed in Zugdidi and Kodori,^[238] denied by a UNOMIG investigation.^[239] On May 12, the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs unveiled drone footage that showed large Russian troop deployments in Abkhazia, close to the ceasefire line,^[240] though Abkhazia continuously argued that the flight of drones was organized to help Georgian forces plan a military operation.

On March 18, the Security Council of Abkhazia announced having downed a Georgian UAV over the boundary line between the Ochamchire and Gali districts, a claim denied by Tbilisi but backed by Russia, which criticized the "build-up of the Georgian military" as evidenced by a "recently shot-down drone in the airspace of the security zone." On April 20, a Georgian drone was shot down over the village of Gagida and that incident was this time confirmed by Georgian authorities, who alleged that a Russian fighter aircraft had been responsible. This incident remains one of the most focal points of the prelude to the war as it represented a direct military clash between Georgian and Russian forces in Abkhazia and led to two UN Security Council sessions and the engagement of the Vienna Mechanism by the OSCE. Though both Sokhumi and Moscow claimed that an Abkhaz-owned aircraft had been responsible for downing the drone, a UN investigation on the ground found that the responsible party was a Russian-originated military jet that had flown back to Russian airspace after the incident. At the time, the UN found both Georgia and Russia responsible for having violated the 1994 Moscow Agreement, one by flying unauthorized UAVs over the conflict zone and the other by using military forces unauthorized by the CIS Peacekeeping Force.^[236]

April 20 represented a new peak in bilateral tensions. Presidents Saakashvili and Putin held a phone conversation during which Saakashvili demanded Russia repeal its April 16 decree.^[241] On April 23, Lithuanian Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas visited Tbilisi as a show of solidarity,^[242] while the United States accused Russia of increasing tensions and violating Georgia's sovereignty. According to later reports confirmed by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Georgia and Russia were "dangerously close" to an armed conflict following the April 20 episode^[243] and President Saakashvili admitted that French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner's mediation "prevented war".

Another two Georgian drones were shot down on May 4 over the Gali district, this time using Buk missile systems, thus proving the presence of unauthorized military weapons in the conflict zone. Another three drones were allegedly shot down between May 8 and May 12, though these shootdowns were denied by Tbilisi. From March 18 to May 12, UNOMIG confirmed five Georgian UAV overflights and two Russian Su-25 military fighter jets over Abkhazia,^[236] each incident assessed as violations of the 1994 ceasefire agreement. More drone flights were reported over the Kodori Valley, though both sides denied having been responsible.^[244] On May 30, Georgia's UN Ambassador Irakli Alasania announced Tbilisi would unilaterally cease its drone program over Abkhazia.

The drone crisis represented a new height in tensions between Georgia and Russia over Abkhazia. On March 20, the People's Assembly of Abkhazia passed a resolution accusing Tbilisi of having taken "a course towards preparations for another military invasion",^[245] while calling on Sergei Baghapsh to withdraw from the Geneva Process. On April 11, a Georgian priest was expelled from Gali for allegedly criticizing Russian peacekeepers^[246] and on April 17, Baghapsh called on the UN to pressure Georgia to withdraw from the Kodori Valley or face "appropriate measures".^[247] On May 5, Georgia withdrew from the 1995 CIS Air Defense Cooperation Treaty.^[248]

The IIFFMCG assessed that the "intensification of air activities over the conflict zone, including by UAVs and fighter jets was one of the first starts of tensions that looked like it could lead to an open conflict," ^[249] while the flying of warplanes by Russia over Georgian territory constituted an "illegal threat of force".^[250]

Tensions increased rapidly in mid-April when the Georgian Intelligence Service reported that several Ural-4320 trucks carrying around 300 Russian mercenaries had entered Abkhazia and were stationed at the Ochamchire naval base on April 17,^[134] the same day as a statement issued by Abkhaz leader Baghapsh warning the deployment of Abkhaz troops in the demilitarized zone of the Gali district unless Georgian troops were withdrawn from the Kodori Valley and the Zugdidi Municipality. A day later, Sokhumi alleged that Tbilisi had started reinforcing troops in the Kodori Valley, a claim denied by Georgian authorities and rejected by a UNOMIG investigation.^[251] Despite military experts' assessment that the Kodori Valley's high-mountain relief made it impossible for it to be used as a base for a Georgian invasion of Abkhazia,^[251] Russia reiterated the Abkhaz allegations on April 29, this time accusing Georgia of dispatching 1,500 soldiers and police officers in the area to prepare an attack on Sokhumi,^[252] for a total of 7,000 men coming from various units of the Georgian Armed Forces, the Georgian Special Forces, regular police officers, and counter-intelligence officers, allegedly armed with 122 mm howitzer D-30s.^[253] Georgia always denied having stationed any troops from its Ministry of Defense in the Kodori Valley.^[254] On April 21, 400 Russian Spetsnaz and paratroopers from the 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division^[13] were dispatched to the conflict zone without notifying Georgia.^[251]

While visiting Moscow on April 25, Baghapsh announced he was ready to sign a military agreement with Russia,^[255] later confirmed by his Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba,^[256] while the Abkhaz People's Assembly voted on a resolution calling on Baghapsh to formally withdraw from the Geneva Process.^[257] A day later, Valery Kenyaikin, Special Envoy of the Kremlin on Georgia, threatened that tensions could "escalate into a military confrontation" between Georgia and Russia.^[251] Eyewitnesses reported at least one tank during a Moscow military parade with the inscription "To Tbilisi".

On April 29, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced a strengthening of its peacekeeping force in Abkhazia with a 545 men-strong battalion from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, who were deployed across the Restricted Weapons Zone of Abkhazia^[115] up to May 6,^[258] bringing the total number of Russian troops to 2,542 men, officially under the legal limit of 3,000 peacekeepers set by the 1994 Moscow Agreement.^[259] Georgian intelligence denied those numbers, instead assessing the total number of Russian forces present in Abkhazia at 4,000,^[251] while noting that the order to increase the number of troops was signed by General Sergey Chaban, who had been dismissed as chief of the CIS Peacekeeping Force back in February.^[260] Russian authorities claimed the troops were equipped with 30 BMD-2s and several ZU-23-2s,^[261] which experts observed were not traditionally part of the inventory of a peacekeeping force.^[115] Georgian intelligence reported in addition several pieces of heavy artillery, including fourteen 122 mm howitzer D-30s, three Buk missile systems, ten BM-21 Grad, anti-tank cannons, two Mil Mi-24 helicopters, and up to 180 technical specialists to service the equipment. The troops and equipment were stationed not only in existing bases, including the Maiak Military Base in Sokhumi, the Tsebelda Mountain Battalion base, and the Ochamchire Seaport,^[134] but also in 15 new checkpoints opened on strategically important roads in Akamara and Arasadzikhi (Ochamchire district) and Nakarghali (Tkvarcheli district).^[134] A UNOMIG attempt to monitor at least one checkpoint was obstructed by Abkhaz Militsiya officers.^[115]

The deployment of new Russian troops in Abkhazia was strongly condemned by Tbilisi, which argued that it had been done in violation of several CIS regulations governing peacekeeping operations.^[262] At a hastily-convened National Security Council session, Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze called the reinforcement "aggressors",^[263] while Foreign Minister Davit Bakradze told Deutsche Welle that it was the "beginning of full-scale military aggression" that negated Russia's role as a mediator in the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict. Speaker Burjanadze accused Russia of seeking to "directly annex Georgian territories" and called the new troops "categorically unacceptable". Thousands protested outside the Russian Embassy in Tbilisi on April 30, calling for an immediate withdrawal of the new peacekeeping troops,^[264] a demand that the Georgian Government would reiterate until the August war.^[265] Mikheil Saakashvili, who privately saw the events as the beginning of a full-scale war,^[266] made a televised address calling on the populations of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to "defy attempts by outrageous and irresponsible external actors", while seeking to deescalate by stating that Georgia "wants peace."

In the early days of May, rhetoric on both sides pointed to the potential for an imminent military clash between Georgia and Russia. During an electoral speech ahead of the May parliamentary elections, Saakashvili said that "one part of Georgia is under the occupation of one of the biggest aggressors",^[267] using the term "occupation" for the first time to describe Russia's military presence in Abkhazia. In response to his speech, Abkhaz separatist leaders claimed that Tbilisi was preparing a military incursion "in the next few days", while Russian media reported about unconfirmed plans by Western diplomats to evacuate Tbilisi. Abkhaz Defense Minister assessed that in case of war, his troops would "reach Kutaisi in four days" and Abkhaz intelligence reports claimed that Tbilisi was preparing for an attack by May 8. On the other hand, Georgian media outlets reported on an alleged Russo-Abkhaz plan to invade the Kodori Valley and parts of Western Georgia in a special operation code-named "Double Dbar" with high-ranking Russian military officials visiting Sokhumi to coordinate a joint attack. On May 11, the Georgian-aligned Government-in-exile of the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia, based in the Kodori Valley, warned of an incoming "storming of the valley" by General Sergey Chaban. A delegation of Don Cossacks visiting Sokhumi pledged up to 15,000 troops to support Abkhazia in case of war.^[268] Speaking in Brussels, State Reintegration Minister Temur Iakobashvili said that Georgia was "on the verge of war with Russia".^[269] On May 6, the Abkhaz separatist government proposed placing Abkhazia under formal Russian military protection,^[268] an idea originally endorsed by Russian Air Force Commander Alexander Zelin^[270] but denied by Russian diplomats.^[271] A few days later, Sokhumi asked Russia to establish a permanent military base in Abkhazia,^[272] a request Duma MP Alexey Ostrovsky rejected. Though not all details of the military events of early May are known, both Mikheil Saakashvili and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon later revealed that the situation was "close to an armed conflict".^[273] Iakobashvili later thanked French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner for having helped Georgia "avoid war" during those days.

The United States strongly condemned the unilateral Russian decision to increase its peacekeeping force, calling on Moscow to "reconsider some provocative steps" that had "significantly and unnecessarily heightened tensions in the region and ran counter to Russia's status as a facilitator."^[274] On May 1, State Secretary Condoleezza Rice criticized the developments during a summit with her Russian counterpart Lavrov in London.^[275] Other high-level US diplomats, including Dan Fried and Matthew Bryza, criticized the inclusion of heavy artillery in the peacekeeping force's renewed equipment.^[276] NATO criticized what it said was a "threat of force that undermined Georgia's territorial integrity", while announcing an upcoming visit by the North Atlantic Council as a show of support.^[277] During a meeting with Lavrov, EU Foreign Policy High Representative Javier Solana called the Russian move "not wise",^[278] while Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt accused Russia of provoking a war in Georgia. Finnish Foreign Minister and OSCE Chairman-in-Office Alexander Stubb declared the troop reinforcement a "priority issue"^[279] and sought to negotiate, in vain, a deescalation by holding direct talks with both Lavrov and Saakashvili. Council of Europe Secretary General Terry Davis called on both sides to "settle disagreements."^[280]

On May 18, Georgia released footage captured by one of its drones over Abkhazia showing combat troop movements in the conflict zone, in violation of peacekeeping rules, while Georgian intelligence reported the dispatching of an additional 250 Chechen fighters of the controversial Vostok Battalion, a GRU unit involved in a power struggle with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, in the Gali district, patrolling the villages of Gudava, Primorsk, Meore Otobaia, and Sida.^[268] Though denied by Moscow, Georgia reported continuous increases in the armament of Russian troops in Abkhazia from April to June, including a large number of BMP and BTR armored vehicles, howitzers, SA-11 Buks, BM-21 Grad rocket systems, and ZSU-23-4 Shilka systems,^{[281] [282]} with similar weapons were brought into South Ossetia around the same time and stationed in Java.^[283] Several Su-25 and Su-27 fighter planes in armed condition were detected at the Bombora Military Base in Gudauta in June by Georgian intelligence.^[281] Throughout May, observers noted increases in armed equipment at several Russian checkpoints in the Abkhaz conflict zone, including in Akamara, Rechkhi, Muzhava, Lekukhona, Saberio, Dikhazurga, Chuburkhinji, Pichori, Mabakevo, Otobaia, and Nakarghali.^[284] Tbilisi reported that Russia was building a new military base in the village of Agubedia in the Ochamchire district in June, though Russia denied the claim.^[285]

On May 16, Russian media reported that the Federal Security Service (FSB) had arrested 34-year-old Ramzan Turkoshvili, a Georgian-born, ethnic Chechen Russian citizen, on charges of espionage. Turkoshvili was alleged to have worked with the Georgian Intelligence Service and paid in US dollars after having been recruited by Zelmikhan Khangoshvili, a Chechen-Georgian nationalist accused by Moscow of promoting Chechen independence on behalf of the Georgian government.^[286] Though no evidence of the FSB's allegations were published, the story was covered extensively by Russian and Abkhaz media, in what Dr. Dani Belo of Carleton University called "the first provocations" in a series of steps meant to instigate fear and facilitate Abkhazia's submission to Moscow's orders.^[287] According to Russian media reports, Turkoshvili allegedly confessed upon his arrest of aiding anti-Russian rebels in the North Caucasus.

According to Moscow, Turkoshvili was tasked with maintaining a line of communication between Tbilisi and separatist groups in the North Caucasus, gathering information about local Russian government officials for potential recruitment, and negotiating with law enforcement to ensure the safe passage of militants across the region.^[288] Russian officials claimed the story "confirmed the participation of Georgian secret services in terrorist activities in the North Caucasus", while Khangoshvili was accused by Russian intelligence of financing gangs in the North Caucasus to prepare terrorist acts, using individuals from Georgia's Pankisi Valley.^[289]

Russia's claims are denied by the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs, which called them "a continuation of Russia's policy of provocation towards Georgia, which has taken a particularly acute form recently." Georgian officials believed that Moscow was seeking to incite conflict in the Pankisi Valley, a region in northern Georgia that had been the cause of tensions between Tbilisi and Moscow during the Chechen wars. The FSB's original announcement happened just as Georgian State Reintegration Minister Temur Iakobashvili was in Moscow for official negotiations. Movladi Udugov, a security official of the separatist Caucasus Emirate, denied the allegations as "Kremlin propaganda".

The Turkoshvili case highlighted the role of the North Caucasus in the conflict between Georgia and Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized Georgia on May 28 for not having implemented a 2006 agreement that envisioned the setting up of a Joint Russo-Georgian Anti-Terrorism Center.^[290] Caucasus Emir Dokka Umarov announced having established a "special group" for the monitoring of tensions and Russian military deployments in the region and gather intelligence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia as early as March. Khangoshvili remained a target of Russian intelligence services, surviving two assassination attempts over the years before being murdered in Berlin by a Russian agent in 2019.^[291]

On May 30, Georgia's UN Ambassador Irakli Alasania announced Tbilisi's unilateral decision to pause its drone surveillance program over Abkhazia. At the same time, Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Yuri Zubakov visited Georgia to discuss ways to defuse tensions. But just a day later, Moscow announced the deployment of 400 men^[115] from the 76th Unit of Russia's Railway Troops^[281] to Abkhazia to repair 54 kilometers^[282] of railroad from Sokhumi to Ochamchire.^[115] The railway had been in a state of disarray since the 1992-1993 war^[158] and Russian authorities portrayed the repair of the road as a "humanitarian mission",^[203] promised by Vladimir Putin to Abkhaz separatists since shortly before leaving office. And though the Russian Ministry of Defense asserted that the railway troops were not armed, the deployment was met with condemnation as an "aggressive act" by Tbilisi,^[292] which accused Moscow of increasing tensions by continuing to station troops illegally on Georgian territory. The deployment came amid bilateral negotiations between Tbilisi and the Kremlin over a planned Medvedev-Saakashvili summit and happened without any prior warning to the Georgian government.^[293]

Russia's claim to legitimacy in the deployment was based on a meeting between Putin and former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze in 2003, as well as an informal agreement of the Russian-Georgian Intergovernmental Economic and Trade Cooperation Commission of December 2005.^[294] Georgia nonetheless viewed the deployment as illegal and Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili proclaimed those troops "occupants" during a visit to Riga, calling for their immediate withdrawal. A formal note of protest was handed to Russian Ambassador Kovalenko, with the Georgian authorities comparing the development to an act of "annexation of Abkhazia from all directions".^[295] Deputy Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze rejected Moscow's justification of the deployment as a humanitarian act, stating, "nobody needs to bring Railway Forces to the territory of another country, unless a military intervention is being prepared."^[296] On June 2, the Georgian National Security Council met and the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement criticizing Georgia's reaction as "anti-Russian ballyhoo".^[294] Medvedev and Saakashvili held a phone call on June 3 to discuss the issue,^[297] with the Saakashvili administration conditioning the normalization of bilateral ties with the withdrawal of illegal military units from Abkhazia and the repeal of the April 16 decree.^[298] Political analysts at The Jamestown Foundation theorized that the timing of the deployment raised doubts about the level of involvement of President Medvedev in the decision-making process, hinting that Putin may have unilaterally ordered it to assert his power as the new Prime Minister of Russia. On June 6, Saakashvili met with Medvedev on the sidelines of an informal CIS summit in Saint Petersburg, where he stated his hopes for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. During that meeting, Medvedev asked Georgia to sign a non-use of force agreement with Abkhazia and to withdraw from the Kodori Valley, and may have demanded a formal rejection of NATO integration as a guarantee of de-escalation,^[299] with Georgian officials openly declaring following the meeting that no breakthrough had been achieved,^[300] while Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov rejected the proposal to hold further high-level meetings in the near future.^[301]

Georgia called on its Western partners to increase assistance to Georgia.^[302] The United States State Department said it was "dismayed" by the deployment of railway troops to Abkhazia, calling it a violation of Georgia's territorial integrity^[262] and "particularly difficult to understand in light of [...] President Saakashvili's constructive efforts to invigorate the Abkhaz peace process."^[303] NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer called it a violation of Georgia's national sovereignty with no legal basis^[302] and urged "both sides" to launch a high-level and open dialogue to deescalate tensions.^[21] EU foreign policy head Benita Ferrero-Waldner told the Russian Duma that Moscow's recent actions had undermined stability in the whole region.^[304] Mostly however, Georgia's international protests fell on deaf ears.^[158] In an interview on Georgian television, President Saakashvili said he was not against restoring the Abkhaz railway, but that the context of the deployment indicated a prelude to a direct military intervention^[305] and that improvements done to the infrastructure of Abkhazia was in preparation for an invasion.

Early estimates of the work were set at four months but were later revised down by Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov to two months, indicating a withdrawal of the railway troops by August 6.^[306] The rehabilitation work was mired with a series of incidents that contributed to increasing tensions in the region. On June 13, Russian troops claimed having found an anti-tank mine close to a work site, claiming it to be an attempt toward a "subversive-terrorist act" against the battalion. On June 18, two explosions on the railroad near Sokhumi caused Abkhaz authorities to increase security measures along the railway. Tbilisi officials claimed the explosions were part of a false-flag operation to discredit Georgia and legitimize the presence of the Russian Railway Troops. An additional 50 Russian workers were brought in to work on railway bridges in the Ochamchire district in early June.^[307] In total, the mission repaired 54 kilometers of railway, eight railway bridges (including over the strategic Kodori and Mokvi rivers) and 44 smaller bridges, 20 tunnels, 55 buildings, and 12,000 ties, going as far as just 35 kilometers from the ceasefire line.^{[282] [308] [293]}

On July 21, Russia reported having finished the restoration of the railway two weeks ahead of schedule. On July 30, General Sergei Klimets of the Russian Railway Troops, visited Abkhazia and opened the new railroad in a public ceremony,^[309] after which the deployment was ended and soldiers re-stationed at the Gumaria base just a few kilometers of the Abkhaz border.^[293] Germany hailed the early departure of the troops as a "positive development" in the conflict, even though both Abkhaz and Russian authorities started discussing a redeployment to rehabilitate the Sokhumi-Psou section of the same railway.^[293]

The deployment of additional Russian forces in Abkhazia contributed to a serious increase in tensions and fears by Georgia of an incoming Russian military operation in the region.^[262] Temur Mzhavia, the Tbilisi-loyal head of the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia, claimed that Russia had planned to recognize the independence of the breakaway republic in September. In June, Georgian intelligence noted the presence of Russian Su-27 and Su-25 fighter jets at the officially closed Gudauta military base in Abkhazia,^[270] leading to Georgian attempts to purchase FIM-92 Stingers from the United States, which Washington refused.^[310]

Abkhaz separatist leaders publicly claimed that the railway reconstruction efforts were needed to help transport building material from Abkhazia to Sochi ahead of the 2014 Winter Olympics.^[311] That claim was denied by most military experts, who noted that the deployment of Russian Railway Troops often preceded larger military interventions (Chechnya in 1999 for example). Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer stated at the time that, "where railway troops go, military action follows."^[312] Indeed, during the August war, the refurbished railways would help move Russian forces and their supplies both in Abkhazia and from Abkhazia to other regions of Georgia.^[296] At least 4,000 Russian troops landing on the beaches of Ochamchire on August 10 were then transported, along with heavy equipment, to launch a direct offensive on the Kodori Valley.^[313] During the war itself, Saakashvili recalled the deployment of railway troops as a direct prelude to the conflict:^[314]

Immediately, they started to bring in railway troops to bring – to build railway in depopulated, ethnically cleansed areas of Abkhazia, cynically claiming that they are doing this for humanitarian purposes.

Most tensions between Georgia and Russia in the first half of 2008 centered around Abkhazia, while the other breakaway republic of South Ossetia remained largely out of international headlines. Russia expert Mark Galeotti has written that Moscow "seemed to neglect South Ossetia compared to Abkhazia during the tension build-up because when it did strike, it wanted to have some pretext and it knew both that Georgia was actively preparing its own offensive to try to retake the region, and that Saakashvili was a hothead."^[13] Saakashvili later admitted he was convinced that war would start in Abkhazia and was surprised when tensions progressively shifted to South Ossetia in the early summer.^[315]

Nonetheless, sporadic shootings and clashes characterized the situation in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone. On March 14, a shootout caused one civilian injury in the Georgian-held village of Eredvi, with Tbilisi alleging the shooting was caused by South Ossetian forces.^[316] The same day, separatist South Ossetian authorities launched a wave of arrests in the region of individuals it had identified as "national security risks" for their opposition to local strongman Eduard Kokoity and the Georgian government condemned "unprecedented punitive measures and repressions carried out against those with dissenting opinions."^[317] Days later, pro-Kokoity forces alleged having uncovered an arms cache in the town of Java with more 3,500 bullets, accusing the Georgian government of planning an internal armed rebellion.^[318] On March 23, a car explosion in the Ossetian-held village of Okona, injuring one North Ossetian peacekeeper and one South Ossetian soldier traveling together,^[319] was attributed by Kokoity to a Georgian special operation targeting a South Ossetian secret service officer, calling it a "terrorist act with traces leading to Georgia,"^[320] a claim vehemently denied at the time by Tbilisi. On March 27, a car explosion targeting separatist prosecutor Teimuraz Khugayev killed one civilian in Tskhinvali, although the Georgian Interior Ministry alleged the blast was the result of an internal power struggle, comparing the region to a "black hole ruled by bandits and illegal groups." ^[321]

In each incident, Georgian authorities accused the JPKF of failing to properly investigate the circumstances and placing due blame. Tbilisi often established new peacekeeping posts in the conflict zone in response to serious incidents, such as after a serious row on March 24-25 between both sides saw 40 Georgian workers detained in Tskhinvali and up to 60 Ossetians detained in Ergneti, before all were liberated after Georgian forces imposed a short-lived blockade around Tskhinvali.^[322] On March 31, the JPKF accused Georgian forces of shelling a South Ossetian irregular post in Okona for up to 40 minutes using small arms and grenade launchers but causing no injury, though Tbilisi denied having any involvement in the incident and instead blamed internal criminal organizations.^[323] On the other hand, Tskhinvali separatists accused the OSCE mission on the ground of being biased, notably after alleging that the Organization directly assisted Georgian forces in shelling one of its posts in the village of Andzisi on April 2.^[324] On April 3, a Georgian police officer was injured after stepping on an anti-personal mine in a forest on Georgian-held territory in the conflict zone, leading to direct accusations by Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili of Russia being responsible for placing the mine.^[325] Two days later, an Ossetian civilian bus was fired at in Znauri.^[326]

There were early attempts to defuse tensions at a high political level, Merabishvili floating early on a potential Saakashvili-Kokoity summit, though Kokoity rejected the proposal early on.^[327] A Georgian-Ossetian civil society forum held in Turkey on April 20^[328] bore no result, and neither did an announcement by the Saakashvili administration of launching a presidential scholarship fund for up to ten South Ossetian students to study abroad.^[329] On April 16, Tskhinvali authorities arrested 20-year-old Yana Bestaeva-Kandelaki, a half-Georgian, half-Ossetian civic activist promoting medical cooperation, on charges of espionage.^[330] In May, North Ossetian Head Taymuraz Mamsurov and Eduard Kokoity publicly floated the idea of Russia annexing South Ossetia in order to unite it with its northern counterpart, while Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili accused the near-1,000-strong Russian peacekeeping force in South Ossetia was engaged in "gross encroachment of Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity." In June, Georgia fined Russian phone operator MegaFon for illegally operating in the region.^[331]

Skirmishes continued throughout May, especially after a May 14 declaration by Kokoity warning of "terrorist attacks" being planned against Georgian civilians and peacekeepers by Georgian special forces to "incite hysteria".^[332] This statement, which was interpreted by Tbilisi as a direct threat, was followed within days by an explosion near the Ergneti Public School in a Georgian village^[333] and a second explosion near the village of Eredvi causing one Georgian policeman to be injured.^[281] On May 29, a blast in Tskhinvali injured five South Ossetian officers outside the headquarters of the Special Forces of the South Ossetian Interior Ministry.^[334]

The May 21 Georgian parliamentary elections took place at a height in tensions and saw a coordinated effort by Tbilisi authorities to encourage Georgians living in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to participate, something that separatists in Abkhazia were strongly opposed to. Before the elections, Sokhumi closed down all voting precincts established in the security zone by Georgia and blocked off the Enguri Bridge, the main checkpoint between Abkhazia and Georgia proper, to prevent Gali-based Georgians from crossing the administrative boundary. In a last-minute push, the Georgian authorities set up special voting precincts for Abkhazia residents in the city of Zugdidi (in Georgian-held territory) and offered transportation to any voter that could reach on their own the village of Khurcha, on the Georgia-Abkhaz border.^[335]

On the morning of May 21, villagers from the Abkhaz-held village of Nabakevi^[336] who had gathered in a football field in Khurcha to await for transportation to the voting polls came under intense small arms fire, while the two buses stationed there were attacked by rocket-propelled grenades.^[335] Georgian law enforcement officers arrived on site ten minutes after the attack and engaged in a firefight with the assailants, leading to a 20-minute gun battle.^[337] Three civilian women were injured in the clash, including one requiring serious medical help.^[336] A UN report would later call the battle "the most serious incident that occurred" in the area up to that point, while the whole episode was recorded by journalist crews who had been covering the transportation of voters from Khurcha from the pro-government Georgian Public Broadcaster and Rustavi 2 channels.^[335]

Tbilisi immediately accused Abkhaz separatists of having perpetrated the attack to scare Georgian civilians away from participating in that day's elections and the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a special notice to the CIS's General Secretariat protesting the role of Russian peacekeepers in the region, who were thought to have failed to prevent the attack. Interior Ministry officials indicated that the gunmen had fired from the direction of Abkhazia, while the Defense Ministry alleged cooperation between Abkhazia militiamen and Russian peacekeepers.^{[338] [335]} Sokhumi immediately denied having had any role in the attack, Sergei Baghapsh at the time being in Moscow and comparing the episode during a press conference to "a Hollywood show",^[339] stating that his forces "do not do such things."^[340] Abkhazia asked Russia to deploy more peacekeepers in the security zone in response to the clash.

Upon request by the Georgian government, UNOMIG launched a ground investigation the same day and established that RPGs had been fired at a distance of approximately 100 meters from the stationed buses, thus indicating that the gunmen had crossed into Georgian-held territory, or five meters away from the Abkhazia boundary.^[341] The revelation that the shooting had taken place within Georgian territory raised questions about the accuracy of Tbilisi's version of events, while the UN questioned the coincidence of Georgian journalists being on the ground during the shootout.^[342] UNOMIG could not directly point fingers at Abkhazia for the attack and pledged to continue its investigation,^[343] although neither that one nor a separate investigation by the Georgian Interior Ministry were brought to an end.^[337]

Weeks after the attack, Georgian investigative outlet Studio Reportiori released a documentary that alleged that the Khurcha incident was organized and staged by the Georgian government as a false-flag operation.^[344] In its investigation, SR alleged that television crews had been brought to the scene well in advance, to have time to prepare set up their equipment before the attack began. It also revealed previously unaired footage by the Public Broadcaster of the RPG attack on the buses, footage whose steadiness indicated it had been recorded on a fixed tripod despite active gunfire. Online news agency Batumelebi featured interviews with local villagers who claimed that unidentified individuals had asked them to come to the Khurcha football field to take part in a video shoot. Questions were raised about why journalists were stationed in Khurcha instead of the voting precinct in Zugdidi, who had organized the bus transportation, the speed at which Georgian law enforcement responded to the attack, and the fact that the RPGs were launched from Georgian-held territory, indicating an incursion by Abkhaz militants.^[345] Paul Rimple, a journalist with Eurasianet, revealed a series of inconsistencies in eyewitness reports, including those journalists who were covering the attack on the ground.^{[346] [347]} Two days after the attack took place, the Norwegian Helsinki Committee published a report raising doubt on the Georgian government's official version of events, while Rusudan Pachkoria, a lawyer with the NGO Legal Protection Institute, accused Georgian media of providing "biased coverage"^[348] that overshadowed that day's elections.^[335] The Human Rights Committee, a prominent civil society in Georgia that documented human rights abuses under the Saakashvili administration, accused "rogue elements" within the Georgian government of being behind the Khurcha incident, calling it a "sheer act of Machiavellian malfeasance at first impression" and called for an independent investigation,^[337] although "Georgian authorities and their sponsors" made that kind of investigation impossible.^[349] The HRC, however, stated that a final and accurate depiction of the event was not possible as long as Abkhaz authorities themselves refused to cooperate in formal investigations.^[337]

The Khurcha incident continued to divide the Georgian political spectrum over the years, with opponents of Mikheil Saakashvili openly accusing him of having staged the attack to bolster support during the parliamentary elections. After Saakashvili's departure from power in 2013, the new government led by Bidzina Ivanishvili called the Khurcha attack a "terrorist act" perpetrated by Georgia itself^[350] and Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili declared the prosecution of MIA officials involved with the planning of the clash a "priority".^[351] In October 2013, Roman Shamatava, who served as Head of the Abkhazia branch of the Department of Constitutional Security within the Ministry of Internal Affairs during the attack, and Malkhaz Murgulia, then-officer with the Special Tasks Department of the Samegrelo and Zemo-Svaneti region, were arrested. Murgulia avoided jail time after entering a plea agreement, while Shamatava was jailed and remains in prison to this day.^[352]

Throughout the spring of 2008, and particularly after the deployment of additional Russian troops in Abkhazia in late April, Georgia increased its rhetoric against Russia's status as a peacekeeper in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, arguing that Moscow's open support for the separatist authorities made it a side to the conflict, a view shared at the time by much of the international community. The Saakashvili administration had long hoped for an internationalization of Russia's peacekeeping missions, engaging in direct talks with the OSCE, the European Union, and individual countries like Ukraine, but received little support except verbal statements. Tensions over the peacekeepers in Abkhazia increased significantly on May 18 when six Russian soldiers were detained in the Georgian town of Zugdidi after their armored personal carrier hit a Georgian civilian vehicle.

The episode was highly disputed between Tbilisi and Moscow, with Russian officials alleging at the time that the incident had been staged by Georgian law enforcement who placed a damaged car on the path of the Russian peacekeeping convoy as it was traveling on a road between Zugdidi and the village of Urta, while the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs claimed that the accident had caused a civilian woman to be injured^[353] and blamed the Russians' drunk driver, who remained in detention after the other five peacekeepers were released^[354] following UNOMIG and CIS mediation. Russia's Foreign Ministry released a statement condemning Georgian police as "true street bandits" for using force against the peacekeepers and calling the incident a provocation meant to discredit their work.^[355] A day after the episode, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that Russian peacekeepers had been authorized by Moscow to undertake military action independently to ensure stability in the security zone, a claim that Abkhaz authorities did not deny at the time. The militarization of the Abkhaz conflict zone increased in the subsequent weeks, with UNOMIG noting an increase in the number of Georgian law enforcement exercises in the Security Zone and the Restricted Weapons Zone in early June,^[356] and media reports signaling the establishment of a new Russian military base in the village of Agubedia, in the Ochamchire district, where heavy weaponry was stationed.^[357] Some activity by UNOMIG was reportedly restricted by Russian officers. On May 28, Georgian media reports claimed two separate attacks on individual peacekeepers by Chechen servicemen.^[358]

On June 17, another four Russian peacekeepers were captured and their military vehicle seized on the road between Zugdidi and Urta, on the Georgian side of the Security Zone, by Georgian law enforcement officers^[359] who confiscated 20 anti-tank missiles, 35 crates of ammunition, and unguided aircraft missiles being transported without prior approval. Georgian peacekeeping chief Mamuka Kurashvili accused Russian forces of attempting to set up an illegal base in Urta, while Russian officials accused the arrests of being "in violation of all regulatory norms", claiming Georgian officers were wearing civilian clothes^[360] and used violent methods to detain and humiliate the Russians in front of Georgian television cameras. Lieutenant General Alexander Burutin of the Russian Armed Forces threatened that any future similar arrest would result in the Russian peacekeepers opening fire.^[270] After nine hours of interrogation, the Russian officers were eventually released but the military hardware remained confiscated,^[361] Tbilisi claiming that the CIS PKF had failed to provide proper documentation for the equipment ahead of transportation, which Moscow later admitted. On June 18, Mikheil Saakashvili and Dmitry Medvedev held a phone call over the incident, with Medvedev threatening that Russia would not tolerate "further provocations" against Russian peacekeepers and Saakashvili calling on Moscow to "refrain from unilateral actions and to follow agreed procedures for transporting weapons."^[362] At a speech at the Saint Petersburg State University days later, President Medvedev warned Georgia of open conflict if similar incidents were to repeat.^[363]

Tensions increased again after the June 17 incident. On June 23, Abkhaz breakaway authorities announced closing off all sea routes for Georgian ships. On June 24, Russian peacekeepers declared a curfew in the Gali district of Abkhazia and took complete control of all local roads. On June 24, Abkhaz and Russian forces conducted their first-ever joint exercises near the Kodori Gorge.^[364] Within days, Abkhaz Defense Ministry officials were awarded high-level medals by Russian military structures.^[364] Tbilisi sought a high-ranking diplomatic solution to the crisis and a direct meeting between Medvedev and Saakashvili,^[365] although the former rejected the offer and met instead with Abkhazia's Sergei Baghapsh on June 26, a meeting condemned by Tbilisi but downplayed by Saakashvili.^[366] The situation was described as a 'war of nerves' by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.^[367]

Tensions shifted progressively from the Abkhaz to the South Ossetian conflict zone in June 2008 as skirmishes between Georgian and Ossetian forces increased. On May 29, two separate clashes coinciding with South Ossetia's Independence Day celebrations caused at least nine injuries, including six when a car parked in front of the separatist Interior Ministry exploded,^[368] an attack that Eduard Kokoity called a "terrorist attack aimed at escalating the conflict" and blamed on Georgia.^[369] The same day, a car transporting civilians was shelled on the Muguti-Avnevi road in the conflict zone.^[370] In both cases, Tbilisi denied any involvement.^[371] On June 11, JPKF posts in the northern outskirts of Tskhinvali were shelled from the Georgian position of Tamarasheni, causing damage to civilian infrastructure and resulting in a counter-attack shelling the Tamarasheni base; though the attack caused no casualty, it was condemned as a gross violation of the ceasefire by the JPKF.^[372] Two days later, a Georgian civilian in the village of Kekhvi was injured after tripping on a tripwire and triggering a small explosion.^[373]

On June 14, 14-year-old Karlo Inauri, from the Georgian village of Ergneti, was killed after stepping on a South Ossetian-installed landmine in a field.^[281] Tensions following his death resulted in a deadly clash between South Ossetian forces in Tskhinvali and Georgian Interior Ministry officers in Ergneti, Nikozi, and Prisi, a battle that killed one and injured seven Ossetians^[374] over an hour and a half, while several houses in Georgian villages were destroyed.^[375] Both sides accused each other of having fired the first shot, the first in a long list of mutual accusations over clashes that eventually led to the war in August. Tskhinvali and the North Ossetian battalion of the JPKF accused Georgian forces of having fired first from its base in Ergneti^[376] in retaliation over the death of Inauri, while Tbilisi claimed having only responded to a barrage of gunfire hitting Georgian villages. On the night of June 15, a joint JPKF-OSCE team on the ground near Ergneti to investigate the causes of the clash came under fire. Georgian police blocked roads leading in and out of Tskhinvali^[377] a day after the clashes and South Ossetia accused Georgian forces of setting up unauthorized posts in the Georgian-held villages of Mejvriskhevi, Sveri, Andzisi,^[378] and Ergneti.^[379]

Tensions increased following the June 14-15 clashes. Georgian intelligence reported eight Russian armored trucks loaded with anti-tank rockets entering Tskhinvali as early as June 16, while General Alexei Maslov, Commander of the Russian Land Forces, visited Tskhinvali and met with separatist officials days later.^[281] Kokoity visited Sokhumi and issued a joint statement with his separatist counterpart Baghapsh accusing Georgia of "seeking war".^[380] On June 23, the Tbilisi-accredited ambassadors of France, Romania, Estonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, and the Czech Republic were expelled from a mediation effort in Tskhinvali after it was revealed they had previously met with pro-Georgian South Ossetian leader Dmitry Sanakoyev on June 23.^[381]

A continuous source of accusations during this period was reports by the JPKF of unauthorized military aircraft flying over the South Ossetian conflict zone in violation of previous ceasefire agreements. At least five such military jets, including an SU-25,^[382] were allegedly reported between May 23 and June 28, leading to a call by Moscow for the installation of a military radar station in South Ossetia.^[383]

On June 13, less than two weeks after the deployment of Russian Railway Troops in Abkhazia, the Ministry of Defense of Russia claimed having discovered a TM-62 anti-tank mine planted under a rail close to the village of Tamishi in the Ochamchire district, which Moscow called an attempt at a "subversive-terrorist act".^[384] Though Russian military spokesman Alexander Drobishevsky claimed that the bomb had been placed there "10 to 30 days ago", Abkhaz media quickly rejected the allegation, instead assessing the mine as having been left over from the 1990s.^[385] The discovery of the mine and subsequent comments happened just as Georgian and Abkhaz high-level officials were holding a secret, EU-mediated meeting in Sweden. On June 18, two bombs exploded along Sokhumi's Kelasur District section of the railway in what separatist authorities called a "terrorist act directed against the Russian Railway Forces."^[253] No injury was reported,^[386] but the blasts were the first of a series that spread throughout the region in the early summer of 2008. Just two days later, Abkhaz security official Eduard Emin-Zade was injured after his car was attacked by unknown assailants near a railway station.^[387]

On June 27, another blast took place along the railway station near the Ministry of Defense building in Sokhumi, causing no injury.^[253] However, two explosions in the resort town of Gagra took place on June 29 within five minutes of each other and caused six injuries.^[253] Though no group claimed responsibility for the attacks, Abkhaz de facto authorities accused Georgia of pursuing a "policy of state terrorism", targeting Russian tourists spending their summers in Abkhazia and the profitable tourist season in the region,^[388] a view that was shared by Georgian analyst Paata Zakareishvili.^[389] In turn, Tbilisi rejected all affiliation with the attacks, with MP Nika Rurua alleging the blasts were aimed at increasing anti-Georgian sentiments in the region. An investigation by separatist authorities resulted in four arrests, including one ethnic Armenian and three Abkhaz war veterans.

Another two blasts took place close to the central market of Sokhumi on June 30, wounding nine civilians^[253] (including one Russian tourist)^[390], just as French, German, British, Russian, and American diplomats were meeting in Berlin to discuss a peace plan.^[391] Abkhaz breakaway Interior Ministry officials once again accused Georgia of being behind the attacks, to thwart the tourism season. Tbilisi pointed at a potential power struggle between various local criminal groups vying for influence over the business sector,^[392] with some officials even accusing Sokhumi of planting the bombs itself in a false-flag operation to discredit Georgia and use it as an excuse to escalate tensions. Speaking from the blast sites, Baghapsh announced the closure of all five^[393] checkpoints with the rest of Georgian territory on July 1, a step that was criticized as an isolation of the Georgian population of the Gali district,^[356] many of whom were given 72 hours to return back to Abkhazia. On July 2, another incident saw a Russian peacekeeping post in the Security Zone targeted by a bomb thrown off a car that had allegedly originated from Georgian territory and had avoided Georgian checkpoint control.^[394] Alexander Diordiev, an official of the peacekeeping force, accused Georgian secret services of being behind this blast, while secessionist authorities accused Tbilisi of seeking to scare Russian tourists away.^[395] Russian experts invited to investigate the blast site claimed having found pieces of a Georgian military uniform among the debris, indicating that the bomb may have been wrapped in it.^[396]

An explosion also took place in Sochi on July 2, killing two civilians, although Russian officials rejected any connection with the Abkhaz attacks.^[397]

The deadliest bombing took place on July 6 at a cafe in the predominantly-Georgian town of Gali, when a blast took place at 22:58 in a cafe^[398] where a local family was celebrating a birthday. The attack killed four, including Jansukh Muratia, the head of separatist security services in the Gali district, a border guard, a cafe worker, and a translator working for UNOMIG.^[399] Within hours, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon condemned the violence and demanded an "immediate and thorough investigation of the incidents" to bring to justice those responsible, while calling "on all parties to exercise maximum restraint".^[400] Council of Europe Secretary General Terry Davis condemned it as a "terrorist attack",^[401] while the French Presidency of the European Union called on the sides to show "the utmost restraint and resume dialogue as quickly as possible."^[402] The United States called for an immediate halt to tensions, urged Sokhumi and Tbilisi to resume talks under the mediation of the Group of Friends, and noted "the urgent need for an international police presence".^[403] Sokhumi quickly accused Georgia of being engaged in "state terrorism" and severed all communications with Tbilisi, de facto Foreign Minister Sergey Shamba declaring a withdrawal of all international talks and calling on the international community to "take appropriate measures to prevent the threat of terrorism coming from Georgia." Baghapsh convened a National Security Council session, during which he declared that the series of bombings had been carried out by Georgian intelligence services as "part of an information campaign designed to prepare the international community for Georgia's possible aggression against Abkhazia."^[253] Georgian civilians who were in Abkhazia at the time of the attack had their travel permits confiscated and were banned from leaving Abkhazia. On July 11, Sokhumi investigators announced having identified high-ranking officials in the Georgian MIA responsible for the attack, though their names remained classified.^[404] Georgia itself denied all involvement in the bombings,^[405] once again pointing out at a potential local power struggle that may also have involved North Caucasian elements,^[406] while calling for the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Ochamchire and Gali districts to have them replaced by an international police force.^[407] The family of Jansukh Muratia, the high-ranking separatist official killed in the blast, rejected the notion that Georgia was responsible for the attack.^[408]

The series of terrorist attacks was met with concern and questions by the international community. In a later interview, Mikheil Saakashvili called them "strange explosions" that reminded him of the "Chechen scenario", a reference to the 1999 Russian apartment bombings used by the Putin administration at the time to justify an intervention in Chechnya, while his cabinet purposely refused to react strongly to the blasts, officially to avoid provoking a war of words.^[409] Following the July 6 Gali explosion, the Georgian government released a statement condemning the blast and indicating that the series of attacks were in "the interests of forces hoping to prolong the presence of illegally deployed Russian military forces in Georgia." Some analysts also saw the bombings as part of a domestic political standoff between Baghapsh and his vice-president Raul Khajimba. Overall, Abkhazia saw a reduction in the number of tourists in June 2008 by 30%.

The Council of Europe warned that the situation may "spin out of control" due to the new height of tensions in Abkhazia. In late June, Abkhaz forces conducted military exercises with the participation of the Russian General Staff and Russian mercenaries.^[116] On June 26, Baghapsh met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for the first time in the latter's presidency and once again called for the withdrawal of Georgian troops from the Kodori Valley, the signing of a non-use of force agreement by Georgia, and a re-commitment to Russian peacekeepers in the region. On July 9, an Abkhaz militsyia point in the village of Lata, near the ceasefire line, is fired upon, causing two injuries.^[253] A report by the International Crisis Group released at the time stated that Tbilisi was "covertly conducting military preparations" and that "several influential advisers and aides to President Saakashvili seem to be convinced more than ever that a military operation in Abkhazia is viable and necessary."^[410] Despite that, Saakashvili proposed on July 10 the creation of a Russo-Georgian committee to provide a safe environment for the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics.^[411]

In Abkhazia, Sergei Baghapsh himself faced criticism, both from within his cabinet and his opposition, for not being enough of a hardliner on Georgia. His vice-president Raul Khajimba called him "too soft" as his government was considering engaging in a new format of direct negotiations with Tbilisi under EU mediation, while Aruaa, a large political organization made of veterans of the 1992-1993 war and closely affiliated with Khajimba, condemned Baghapsh's alleged "multi-vector foreign policy", instead calling for closer ties with Russia.^[412] Khajimba himself publicly supported a military intervention to take over the Kodori Valley.^[356] This pushed local officials to at times use polarizing rhetoric, such as a statement by Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba calling Abkhazia a "Russian protectorate".^[413] Baghapsh traveled to Moscow to seek the opening of a Russian embassy in Sokhumi and declared that he had "incontrovertible evidence" that Tbilisi was intending to invade the region, leading to threats by the Russian Ministry of Defense to use force against Georgia.^[414] While Sokhumi claimed that Georgia was planning a two-sided assault on Abkhazia from Zugdidi and the Kodori Valley,^[415] Tbilisi continuously denied the claims, while UN reports showed no evidence of a Georgian military buildup.

On 9 July, a clash took place on Mount Achamkhara, an uninhabited mountain in the Kodori Valley separating Georgian-held from separatist-controlled territories, once home to a Georgian police outpost until the UN demanded its dismantling, and described as a buffer zone by Georgian police authorities.^[416] The clash took place hours before Georgia opened up the local Kvabchara Valley (where Mount Achamkhara is located) to UNOMIG monitoring,^[417] with a first visit by UN inspectors expected at 11:00 that morning. Instead, in the early hours of July 9, a Georgian police team of ten officers patrolling the area between the villages of Deluki, Achamkhara, and Kvabchara to ensure the safety of the field ahead of the UNOMIG tour came under fire, leaving three policemen injured.^[418] According to the Georgian MIA, four Abkhaz soldiers were killed during the clash^[419] and though Sokhumi acknowledged the incident, it claimed only two of its officers were wounded.^[420] The Abkhaz separatist government alleged that the clash was caused by Georgian "saboteurs" launching an attack on a nearby separatist outpost with grenade-launchers to increase tensions ahead of a visit to Tbilisi by State Secretary Condoleezza Rice, though Abkhaz troops were able to repel them after a brief exchange of fire. The Georgian side claimed that Russian peacekeepers may have been involved in the battle and immediately called for an investigation by UNOMIG, which was only launched a day later after being blocked off by Abkhaz troops and a demand by Russia to have its troops involved in the investigation,^[421] and though an investigation was formally launched on July 10, Tbilisi argued such a delay would bring no clarity and the results of the investigation were never published. Leaked US diplomatic cables discussing the incident described it as proof of an "increase in the number of Russian soldiers, military equipment, military training and intelligence activity near the Kodori Gorge indicates the interest of Russian forces."

Also on July 9, a separate incident saw a grenade attack attack against a Georgian MIA unit patrolling the Shamgona-Akhali Abastumani road on the ceasefire line. Though no one was injured, Abkhaz authorities alleged that Tbilisi had staged the incident itself to "artificially escalate tensions in the region on the eve of the visit of the U.S. Secretary of State." The Georgian government saw these incidents as a scenario aimed at destabilizing Georgia and distracting the international community's attention from the "real problems", referring to the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the conflict zones.

Following these incidents, tensions continued to increase around the Kodori Valley, where Georgian and Abkhaz troops stationed respectively in the Maruki Pass and the Adanga Pass (both beyond the scope of UNOMIG monitoring) faced each other directly. At least eight drone flights were reported over the Valley between April 8 and July 5, although no side claimed responsibility. Georgian media reported during that time that Baghapsh's June visit to Moscow was made to finalize a potential attack on the Kodori Valley. Meanwhile, the Georgian government continuously rejected calls by Sokhumi and Moscow to replace Georgian military and Interior troops with international peacekeepers in the Valley.^[422] On July 26, the Kvabchara Gorge, a difficult-to-access region of the Kodori Gorge barred from UNOMIG jurisdiction,^[423] was shelled by mortar fire.^[356] Though the UN started an investigation into the incident, it was never finalized as the war began less than two weeks later.^[424]

In June-July 2008, the hot spot of tensions progressively shifted from the Abkhaz conflict zone to South Ossetia.^{[409] [21]} Despite that, threats of open conflict continued in Abkhazia throughout July, especially surrounding the Kodori Valley. Unconfirmed media reports in both Georgia and Russia contributed to increasing the tense rhetoric, such as a claim that Baghapsh had visited Moscow in early July to plan for an upcoming invasion of the valley with Russian forces on August 11.^[f] Abkhaz separatist army officials themselves alleged that a deployment of Russian troops in the southern edges of the Kodori Valley, coordinated by Georgian warlord Emzar Kvitsiani, had taken place, claims confirmed by Georgian media on July 19. A few days later, Baghapsh rejected all negotiations with Georgia under any format whatsoever until the latter withdrew from the Kodori Valley altogether.^[425] Sokhumi firmly rejected the notion of internationalizing the peacekeeping force, a key demand of the Georgian government, while the Union State of Russia and Belarus announced considering both Abkhazia and South Ossetia as potential members.^[426] On July 12, Georgian-loyal Abkhaz Autonomous Republic officials claimed that a group of 90 ethnic Chechen peacekeepers had deserted their posts in the towns of Saberio and Muzhava after refusing to take part in attacks against Georgian positions.^[427] After the war, President Saakashvili claimed that officials in the Abkhaz separatist government had warned his cabinet that Russia was encouraging skirmishes with Georgia.^[409]

These reports came amidst an increase in Russian military installations in the region, specifically after a report by the SVR recommended Moscow to designate Abkhazia and South Ossetia as "Zones of Vital Interests of Russia".^[428] In early July, construction of the Russian base in the village of Okhurei, in the Tkvarcheli district, was finished and was equipped with four BTR-70s, four BDRM-2s, and several anti-aircraft systems, along with additional Russian soldiers.^[429] Several hundred more of soldiers were detected by Georgian intelligence at the Bombora military base in Gagra, along with 44 military vehicles^[429] and several fighter jets.^[282] On July 11, the Russian Ministry of Defense announces measures to "increase combat readiness" for its peacekeepers in Abkhazia, including the strengthening of its bases and revisions to its firearm use policy.^[430] The Russian Navy based in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk was placed on full preparedness and its ships were deployed off of Georgian territorial waters.^[431] By the end of July, Mikheil Saakashvili was briefed on the entry into Abkhazia of another 200 Russian tanks, though he chose not to respond in what he calls a strategy to "avoid provocations".^[409]

UN-led attempts to negotiate a conflict settlement failed, despite visits to Abkhazia by Secretary General special emissaries Bertrand Ramcharan^[432] and Jean Arnault.^[433] French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner told the European Parliament he would visit Abkhazia "soon",^[434] though that visit would never take place.

On July 6, the ceasefire line was struck with four simultaneous explosions close to the town of Ganmukhuri, one of them striking the car of a Zugdidi police official, though Russian peacekeepers claimed the blasts were a false-flag operation by Georgia itself.^[435] Another series of explosions took place on July 19: the villages of Akhali Abastumani and Shamgona (Zugdidi district) and Nabakevi (Gali district) were targeted, with an Abkhaz officer killed by a defective grenade in the latter;^[436] a third blast took place at night when Abkhaz officers stationed near Russian peacekeeping positions shelled a Georgian police post in the village of Napati.^[437] In each case, Sokhumi denied any involvement. Sokhumi also denied having caused the death in custody of an elderly Georgian civilian beaten by Abkhaz police officers in Gali on July 25,^[438] an incident taking place amid last-minute attempts by the international community to negotiate a peace settlement. On July 27, a mine explosion in the village of Taglioni near Gali caused one Georgian civilian to be killed and four others injured, as a result of which Tbilisi called for the region to be placed under international protectorate.^[439] One day later, the UN Security Council held an emergency session^[440] during which Ban Ki-moon expressed direct concern over the escalation of tensions.

As tensions shifted from Abkhazia to South Ossetia in June and July,^[441] both sides noted an increase in troop movement and heavy artillery present on the ground. While Tskhinvali reported an increase in Georgian military equipment on Georgian-controlled positions,^[431] a clear Russian buildup involving troop deployment, tents, armored vehicles, tanks, self-propelled artillery, and artillery guns started in early July.^[442] At the same time, the South Ossetian separatist government imposed restrictions on the free movement of cars and people through the various villages of the conflict zone, while OSCE monitors reported difficulties in accessing South Ossetian posts.^[443] This situation created a fertile ground for clashes and skirmishes, such as an explosion in the morning of July 2 at a Georgian Peacekeeping Force (PKF) post, causing no casualty.

Mikheil Saakashvili draws links between a visit by South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity in Moscow in late June and the start of open clashes on the ground, clashes that became increasingly difficult for Georgian forces to avoid.^[444] The July 2 formal rejection by the Kremlin of a last-minute proposal by Mikheil Saakashvili to partition Abkhazia into Russian and Georgian spheres of influence also cemented the path to conflict.^[445] Hours after a bombing killed separatist militia official Nodar Bibilov in the village of Dmenisi on July 3,^[446] an IED targeted the convoy carrying pro-Tbilisi South Ossetian alternative leader Dmitry Sanakoyev on the Tskhinvali Bypass Road^[445] in a failed assassination attempt that was followed by a gunfight between Sanakoyev's bodyguards and separatist militants stationed on the heights of Sarabuki and Kokhati,^[447] leading to three Georgian law enforcement officers wounded.^[446] In parallel, a Georgian school bus and a police car came under attack in the conflict zone, though no injury was reported there.^[448] In response, Georgian forces launched a special operation to neutralize some of the most strategic posts of the separatists, taking over within hours the Sarabuki Heights and firing at the South Ossetian positions in Kokhati and Ubiati, killing one separatist soldier. Several more South Ossetians were killed by Georgian snipers as they sought to dislodge the new Georgian bases throughout the evening.^[449] Around 23:30, the Georgian-held villages of Nikozi, Ergneti, Eredvi, Zemo Prisi, Vanati, Tamarasheni, and Avnevi came under fire,^[429] after which Tbilisi launched a direct shelling of the southern neighborhoods of Tskhinvali, killing three and wounding eleven,^[450] including one South Ossetian cameraman.^[451]

The July 3 battle escalated further when Kokoity declared a mobilization of his troops in the early hours of July 4,^[452] while the JPKF reported two Georgian military jets and six drones flying over the conflict zone. In Sokhumi, Abkhaz troops were placed on combat alert readiness. Kokoity, who accused Georgia of trying to start a war, called on Russia to deploy troops and threatened to violate previous agreements banning the deployment of heavy artillery in the conflict zone. Sporadic shootings continued on July 4, with South Ossetian forces seeking to attack a Georgian PKF checkpoint on the Tskhinvali Bypass Road, gunfire between the South Ossetian-administered Ubiati and the Georgian post in Nuli, and another failed attempt to take over the Georgian position on the Sarabuki Heights,^[453] attacks that the Georgian Ministry of Defense assessed were done to prevent a ground investigation by the OSCE.^[454] Russia, which openly claimed that the attack on Sanakoyev was staged^[455] and had threatened to dispatch North Caucasian volunteers against Georgia, gave control of several pieces of heavy artillery to South Ossetian militia forces, transporting them from the Java District to the conflict zone, all while dispatching Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin to Tbilisi.^[456] By late afternoon, Kokoity rescinded his mobilization order^[457] and tensions dissipated temporarily as Georgian troops set up several new peacekeeping posts around Tskhinvali and abandoned their posts at the JPKF headquarters in Tskhinvali until July 15.^[458] Council of Europe Secretary General Terry Davis said at the time that "someone is sitting on a powder keg and playing with fire."^[459] On July 4, Georgian intelligence reported ten Russian armored vehicles entering South Ossetia through the Roki Tunnel.^[460]

Another clash took place on the night of 5-6 July, when Georgian positions in Nuli and Kekhvi and the South Ossetia post of Ubiati came under fire,^[461] which grew into a small battle using RPGs and automatic firearms between Tskhinvali and Georgia's Ergneti, causing one South Ossetian to be injured.^[462] In response to this skirmish, Kokoity declared wanting to "exercise wisdom, calmness, and restraint to aid the collapse of the regime of Saakashvili." Following this clash, South Ossetian authorities claimed that Georgia had evacuated 300 civilians from nearby villages, indicating preparations for a war. Just a day later, Georgian authorities reported having prevented a group of ten separatist saboteurs from mining the Tskhinvali Bypass Road. Tensions increased further when Georgian police detained a 14-year-old Ossetian teenager on charges of espionage on July 7,^[463] causing a war of words and the abduction of four Georgian soldiers near the ceasefire line, dubbed as "spies" seeking to "adjust artillery fire" near the South Ossetian village of Okona.^[464] At a televised National Security Council session, President Saakashvili ordered his Interior Ministry to launch a special operation to free the Georgian soldiers.^[465] Both the Ossetian teenager and the four Georgian soldiers were freed by the end of July 8 after a mediation mission by the OSCE.^[453]

On July 8 at 20:10, four armed Russian military jets flew above the South Ossetian conflict zone for nearly 40 minutes.^[466] This was met with serious concern by Tbilisi and the international community, especially as the flights coincided with the arrival to Georgia of U.S. State Secretary Condoleezza Rice,^[431] although Moscow stated in its official declaration that the overflights of the conflict zone had been done "to let hot heads in Tbilisi cool down."^[467] The flights, thought to be in violation of a 2002 JCC resolution requiring pre-approval of all flights over the area, was severely condemned by the Georgian government, with Parliament Chairman Davit Bakradze accusing the "Russian syndrome of impunity",^[468] Saakashvili calling the incident "one of the wildest episodes since World War II", and several MPs proposing the shootdown of any future Russian plane flying illegally in Georgian airspace.^[469] This was the first open violation of Georgian airspace by Russia willfully admitted to by the Kremlin,^[150] a sign that many in the international community saw as a warning,^[431] although Moscow insisted the flights were done to prevent a Georgian special operation to free its detained soldiers in Tskhinvali.^[470] On July 10, Tbilisi recalled Ambassador Erosi Kitsmarishvili, its ambassador in Russia, for consultations over "Russia's aggressive policies",^[471] while requesting a UN Security Council session be held, a session that would take place only on July 21 after days of Russian attempts to block the session.^[472] An OSCE Permanent Council special session was also held over the incident on July 14 in Vienna.^[473] Russian officials doubled down during these sessions, rejecting the notion of IDPs returning to Abkhazia and South Ossetia as "unrealistic" and asking Georgia to sign a non-use of force agreement and unilaterally withdraw from the Kodori Valley.

The rhetoric exchanged between Tbilisi, Tskhinvali, and Moscow in the days that ensued was described by Russian political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky as a "pre-war state of affairs".^[471] The North Caucasus Military District Commander, Colonel General Sergey Makarov, announced already on July 10 that his forces were ready to assist the South Ossetian civilian population against Georgian attacks. South Ossetian Russia envoy Dmitry Medoyev called for the deployment of additional Russian peacekeeping troops, while the North Ossetian battalion added another 50 soldiers on July 14.^[474] Former separatist prime minister Oleg Teziev alleged that Tskhinvali was capable of detonating a portable nuclear device. By mid-July, Georgian intelligence reports noted an increasing number of Russian troops and heavy artillery crossing into South Ossetia through the Roki Tunnel.^[460] On July 19, Kokoity formally rejected a proposal by the European Union to organize direct, bilateral talks in Brussels.^[475] Tskhinvali's complaints over the title of Reintegration State Minister Temur Iakobashvili led to his appointment instead as "Presidential Envoy on Conflict Resolution",^[476] though that proved to be insufficient for a resumption of negotiations.^[477] By July 31, separatist Interior Minister Mikhail Mindzaev had admitted to building a large number of military fortifications in the conflict zone in violation of previous ceasefire agreements.

Sporadic skirmishes continued throughout July. A South Ossetian militia post in Avnevi came under fire on July 10.^[478] The village of Kemerti was rocked by an explosion on July 13.^[479] On July 20, Georgian authorities detained four South Ossetian civilians on their way back to Tskhinvali on charges of drug trafficking, which led to Tskhinvali forces detaining a Georgian civilian in the village of Nikozi, who would later be released after close to 50 Georgian civilians protested and blocked the Ergneti-Tskhinvali Road.^[480] On July 25, a radio-controlled mine killed one man in Tskhinvali in what separatist officials called a "planned terrorist attack".^[481] On July 28, the Ministry of Defense of Georgia hoisted the Georgian flag over the Sarabuki Heights, hours before an attack on the post by South Ossetian forces. Ossetian militias also fired at OSCE observers trying to enter the village of Cholibauri where Tbilisi claimed they were building illegal fortifications. Still on July 29, Georgian authorities reported the shelling of its positions in the village of Sveri (and the subsequent firing at OSCE monitors on the ground) and on the Sarabuki Heights, the latter attack causing one South Ossetian soldier to be wounded.

In July, Russian media increased its anti-Georgian rhetoric in a coordinated manner. Russian-Tajik journalist Oleg Panfilov noted a proliferation of Russian blogs in support of South Ossetia accusing Georgia of engaging in war crimes.^[482] Large networks featured polls picturing Georgia as "the number one enemy" of Russia with its "bloodthirsty" leader.^[203] Russian media outlets started discussing the idea of a war that would start in August and pundits spoke openly about assassinating Mikheil Saakashvili.^[483] Georgia's ambition to integrate NATO was regularly discussed as a threat to Russia's national security.^[484] Major headlines spread disinformation in the weeks before the war, such as an Izvestia article suggesting Georgian snipers were murdering Ossetian children,^[485] others claiming that the United States was pushing Georgia to lead a proxy war against Russia.^[486] According to Panfilov, the main goal of spreading this disinformation was to justify to the Russian public an incoming invasion of Georgia. Duma MP Vadim Gustaev, influential Moscow city councilman Mikhail Moskvyn-Tarkhanov, and others^[487] reiterated the same talking points, pressing on the need for Moscow to "protect South Ossetia from Georgian aggression".^[488] On July 14, the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta leaked a classified report of the Duma's Defense and Security Committee's analysis of the Russo-Georgian conflict in which one of the scenarios outlined was for the Kremlin to "wait passively while the situation escalates on the ground" before intervening through a "staged armed conflict". Around the same time, Komsomolskaya Pravda reported that a Vladikavkaz-Tskhinvali pipeline would be built before the end of the year, "after Georgia's final loss of South Ossetia". Other Russian news outlets warned about Russia's weakening in the North Caucasus if it failed to preempt a Georgian advance into Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As early as June 20, Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer affirmed that Putin had decided to launch a war against Georgia "in late August".^{[489] [490]}

Chechen separatist website Kavkaz Center published alleged intelligence data it had acquired in early July about an incoming Russian military operation planned against Georgia for August-September, with the main aim of evicting Georgian positions in the Kodori Valley and around Tskhinvali, a plan that was said to have been drawn up by Vladimir Putin before Medvedev's inauguration and that featured a series of provocations preceding an open armed conflict. The same plan was explained by Putin ally Alexander Dugin at a speech in Tskhinvali in late June. In response, Sergei Baghapsh claimed to possess his own intelligence reports about a Georgian plan to invade Abkhazia as early as April-May, while high-ranking Russian political figures such as Valery Kenyakin^[491] and Sergey Mironov pledged to defend Abkhazia militarily.^[492] During a European security conference held in Yalta in early July, the Russian Ambassador to the European Union Vladimir Chizhov urged German MEP Elmar Brok to visit Georgia "sooner than later" as "September may be too late", referring to a planned fall visit to Georgia by the European official.^[493]

Georgian officials regularly raised the alarm in the West about the risks of an impending war. In an interview with The New York Times, Mikheil Saakashvili affirmed that "[the Russians] are not opposed by the Europeans and other players." Georgian diplomats spent much of the first half of July organizing meetings with Western counterparts in hopes of raising awareness over the rise in tensions.^[494] Regardless, the overwhelming feeling in the high echelons of the Georgian Government was that a war was unlikely to take place, at least in the summer, as long as Tbilisi refused to respond to provocations. Still days before the war, Defense Minister Davit Kezerashvili was on vacation abroad, both of his deputies were preparing to follow suit, and the armed forces were at their lowest level of readiness since April as their commanders had just been authorized to grant units leave after months of active mobilization.^[495] Saakashvili himself was on vacation with his family in Italy in early August and had official plans to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics.^[495]

On the other hand, the Brussels-based think-tank International Crisis Group (ICG) published a controversial report in June claiming that high-ranking officials in Tbilisi were pushing for a "military option" to restore jurisdiction over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The report claimed a conflict within the Saakashvili administration, between moderates led by Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze "still holding the upper hand" and hawks favoring a military offensive in Abkhazia after an "arranged incident" played out as a Russian provocation, a conflict that would lead to a partition plan with Moscow.^[496] The report was condemned and rejected by the Georgian Government.^[497]

The rise in aggressive rhetoric came amid additional military buildup throughout the Caucasus. Georgian intelligence noted a squadron of Su-27 fighter jets moved to the North Caucasus Military District on July 11, a dozen T-72 tanks moved from Alagir to a base nearby the Roki Tunnel on July 14, along with at least six trucks loaded with soldiers from Zaramag in North Ossetia, and at least 120 Russian medics dispatched to Tskhinvali hospitals on July 23.^[498] By the end of July, reports had been made about tents set up in the Russian JPKF base in northwestern Tskhinvali to house up to 2,000 soldiers,^[460] while some oral accounts by JPKF soldiers at the time talked of troops coming from the Russian 33rd Motor Rifle Mountain Brigade. On August 5, Israeli media reported that Israel had halted the sale of military equipment to Georgia following a request by Russia.

The buildup was followed by a series of cyberattacks conducted against both Georgian and South Ossetian websites, starting with the Georgian presidential website being shut down for 24 hours on July 20.^[499] On August 5, the two largest South Ossetian news websites (OSinform.ru and OSRadio.ru) were hacked to feature content by the pro-Georgian Ossetian news website Alania TV, though the latter denied having had any role in the hacking.^[500] These cyberattacks would become an important feature of the subsequent war.

On 3 July, the Russian Federal Security Service border troops staged an exercise near the Georgian border in North Ossetia in which they repelled an armed attack on the Nizhny Zaramag border crossing. Russian Defense and Interior Ministry troops also participated in the simulation. This kind of training was staged for the first time since the 90s.^[501]

On 5 July 2008, the Russians began military training, named Caucasus Frontier 2008, in the North Caucasus.^[502]

In early July 2008, OSInform Information Agency published several articles where the participation of the Russian army in the future "peace enforcement" operation in Georgia was discussed.^[503][504] One of the articles said that the planned Russian exercises were not accidental and this suggested a military operation on the foreign soil.^[503]

On 15 July, the United States and Russia began two parallel military trainings in the Caucasus, though Russia denied that the identical timing was intentional.^[505][506] The Russian exercise was named Caucasus 2008 and units of the North Caucasus Military District, including the 58th Army, took part. The exercise included training to aid peacekeeping forces stationed in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.^[507] The Black Sea Fleet and Caspian Flotilla also participated in the exercises.^[508] A Russian military spokesman Igor Konashenkov said that the exercise would use around 700 military hardware. He also said, "In connection with the aggravated situation of the Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-Ossetian conflicts... we will also work on participation in special operations to bring peace to zones of armed conflicts."^[509][510] The paratroopers from 76th Airborne Division arrived in the North Caucasus on 16 July.^[507] Russian Airborne Troops emphasized the fact that the paratroopers were not sent to Abkhazia.^[511] Russian Airborne troop detachments arrived in the area near the Roki pass. Posts of logistical and medical supplies were established along the routes of the deployment. The participants in the exercises had an air support.^[512] Georgia called the exercises a demonstration of Russian aggression against it.^[507] The Georgian Foreign Ministry said in a statement: "Not a single document on conflict resolution authorises Russian armed forces to carry out any kind of activity on the territory of Georgia."^[513]

On 18 July, the Roki and Mamisoni Passes on the border with Georgia were taken by 76th Guards Air Assault Division from Pskov and 7th Guards Airborne Division from Novorossiysk.^[514] According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the fact that the exercises were spread across 11 regions of Russia was an evidence that the number of participating troops were higher than officially declared number. Russian General Yuri Netkachev said that the number of participating soldiers in the Russian exercises was "officially underestimated" to avoid attention of international monitors.^[515] The second stage of the Russian exercises, which were a response to US-Georgian exercises, began on 22 July. The Russian fleet would also participate in the exercises.^[516] Igor Konashenkov, assistant commander of the North Caucasus Military District, said on 23 July that the exercises gave the Mechanized infantry regiment of the Vladikavkaz division the task of securing the state border near the Roki Pass and all units of the division were deployed to the designated area and replaced the Air Assault battalion of the Pskov division.^[517] During exercises, a pamphlet named "Soldier! Know your probable enemy!" was circulated among the Russian soldiers. The pamphlet described the Georgian Armed Forces.^[518] The Russian exercises ended on 2 August.^[519] Russian troops stayed near the border with Georgia after the end of their exercise on 2 August, instead of going back to their barracks.^[520] Later, Dale Herspring, an expert on Russian military affairs at Kansas State University, described the Russian exercise as "exactly what they executed in Georgia just a few weeks later [...] a complete dress rehearsal."^[521]

The US exercises were called "Immediate Response 2008" and included servicemen from the United States, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Armenia.^[522] According to the officials, the exercises had been planned months in advance. The exercises were held at the former Russian military base in Vaziani.^[523][524] 127 American participating troops served as trainers in the exercises.^[525][526] Counter-insurgency action was the focal point of the joint exercise. The Georgian brigade was trained to serve in Iraq.^[521] A total of 1,630 servicemen, including 1,000 American troops, took part in the exercise, which concluded on 31 July.^[527] American troops had already left Georgia when the Russian invasion of Georgia began in August 2008.^[528]

On 5 March 2008, Georgia left the Joint Control Commission for Georgian–Ossetian Conflict Resolution and suggested a new negotiation scheme which would include the EU, OSCE and the Sanakoyev government.^[520][529]

On 28 March 2008, the Office of the Georgian State Minister for Reintegration summmoned an international conference "The Role of Non-Governmental Organisations in the Processes of Reintegration in Georgia". The conference was attended by the President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili. Saakashvili announced new initiatives on the Abkhaz conflict, which were a joint free economic zone, Abkhaz representation in the central government and an Abkhaz vice-president, the right to veto all Abkhaz-related decisions, limitless autonomy and various security guarantees.^{[530][531][532]} However, the initiatives were dismissed by Abkhaz separatists.^[533][534]

On 17 April 2008, Georgian minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration Giorgi Baramidze said if Abkhazia allowed the return of refugees, then Georgia would sign the treaty on non-use of force.^[535]

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza declared at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute: "Nobody wants such a development of the situation, when Georgian and Russian soldiers will face each other." He said that he did not have an "impression that Georgia is 100 percent right" and added: "Leaders of Georgia also need to work a lot more on peace proposals so that Abkhazians stop feeling fears."^[536] Bryza also said that the existing peace formats for Georgia's breakaway regions no longer worked and "we need to rejuvenate [friends'] process." Georgian foreign minister Davit Bakradze said that NATO's promise to consider Georgia's possible accession in December 2008 contributed to Russia's aggressiveness: "this is the window of opportunity: to blow up Georgia in order not to make MAP in December possible."^[537]

On 24 April 2008, Georgian president Saakashvili announced that Georgia would discuss with allies how to revise the peacekeeping format and increased involvement of other countries in the peace process because "the presence of the Russian [peacekeeping] contingent there [in Abkhazia and South Ossetia], as well as [Russia’s] recent actions, is a risk factor in the conflict zone."^[538]

US Senators Joe Biden and Richard Lugar wrote that NATO's attempt to appease Russia by denying MAP to Georgia and Ukraine failed because in several days Moscow began to establish close ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in order to sabotage Saakashvili's peace plan on Abkhazia.^[539]

On 30 April 2008, Member of the European Parliament Marie Anne Isler Béguin said that Russian peacekeepers were ineffective and the peacekeeping format should be changed.^[540] The EU was asked by Georgia to consider the deployment of European peacekeepers to the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone.^[541]

Georgian president Saakashvili and President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko issued a joint statement criticizing recent Russian actions. Ukraine announced willingness to participate in the peacekeeping operation in Georgia and approved Saakashvili's new peace plan on Abkhazia.^[542]

Members of the Abkhaz parliament adopted a declaration to halt peace negotiations with the US, the UK, France and Germany because the "Group of Friends of the Secretary-General" was biased towards Georgia. In early May, Abkhaz foreign minister Sergei Shamba said that Abkhazia was disappointed in the West and approved the parliament's stance.^[543]

On 1 May 2008, United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that increase in Russian peacekeeping contingent in Abkhazia was unnecessary. On 3 May 2008, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that "plans to pull Georgia into NATO" were to blame for Georgia's "inability to negotiate" on Abkhazia with Russia. He expressed hope that Georgia and "those capitals, which are pulling Georgia in the North Atlantic alliance" would not make "artificial problems in this very sensitive region."^[544]

On 1 May 2008, Georgian Finance Minister Nika Gilauri announced that $150 million from the sale of Georgian-issued Eurobonds would be transferred to the Fund of Future Generations, which was intended to finance the development of the former breakaway regions after the restoration of Georgia's territorial integrity.^[545]

Georgian and Abkhaz sides were talking about deescalation of tensions in early May. However, each side had different vision, with Georgians focusing on recent peace plan proposed by Saakashvili and the Abkhaz demanding the Georgian withdrawal from the Kodori Gorge and abolition of Georgian sanctions.^[546]

On 10 May 2008, Matthew Bryza and the US ambassador to Georgia John F. Tefft met with the Abkhaz leadership. According to Bryza, Georgian drone overflights over Abkhazia were justified.^[547]

On 12 May 2008, the Foreign Ministers of Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Sweden and Slovenia visited Georgia. Saakashvili spoke alongside the ministers and presented a Russian leaflet promoting the Sochi Olympics as a proof of Russia's design on Abkhazia. Saakashvili said that Russia's escalation was "a prelude to the act of annexation and act of occupation". Saakashvili said that when Georgia was occupied in 1921, Russia then attacked other European countries; Saakashvili expressed hope that "Europe will never again makes the similar mistake".^[548]

On 12 May 2008, President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko and President of Lithuania Valdas Adamkus issued a joint statement supporting the territorial integrity of states, including Georgia.^[549]

On 12 May 2008, Georgia's UN envoy Irakli Alasania visited Sukhumi to discuss peace plan with Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh. The peace plan included proposals on the Georgian commitment not to use force and Abkhaz commitment to allow the return of Georgian refugees. Abkhaz foreign minister Sergei Shamba commented that Abkhazia was not completely against this plan. Bagapsh planned to visit Moscow on 19 May to get approval for the Abkhaz-Georgian peace plan.^[550]

On 15 May 2008, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution underlining the right of return of all refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to Abkhazia in addition to their property rights.^[551] Russia voted against the Georgian-sponsored resolution.^[552] The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Georgian proposal was "a counterproductive step".^[553]

On 16 May 2008, Georgian minister for reintegration Temur Iakobashvili arrived in Moscow and proposed to hold an international conference on the settlement of the conflicts. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that the US and the EU involvement indicated that Georgia did not want the real solution to the conflicts.^[554]

On 23 May 2008, Temur Iakobashvili said after his visit to Moscow for the discussion of Saakashvili's peace plan that Georgia wanted to revise military peacekeeping formats not because "we are expelling the Russians." He added that "Russia should be one of the parties to the settlement, and not have the exclusive right to peacekeeping." He said that additional Russian troops in Abkhazia were not peacekeepers, but "illegal armed formations." Sources in the administration of the Russian president said that Russian peacekeepers would not leave Abkhazia even if Georgia demanded their withdrawal; instead Russian troops would remain as allied forces per future military agreement with Abkhazia.^[555]

In late May 2008, Vladimir Putin said that Saakashvili's peace plan regarding Abkhazia was acceptable.^[556] Putin said the plan was "correct", but it needed an approval of Sukhumi. Putin stated that Russia had asked the Abkhaz authorities to allow the return of 55 thousand Georgian refugees.^[557]

On 5 June 2008, the European Parliament adopted a resolution which condemned the deployment of Russian forces to Abkhazia and endorsed Georgia's territorial integrity. The resolution called on Russia to pull out those additional forces and stated that the peacekeeping structure should be changed because Russia was no longer an unbiased player. A "deeper European involvement in these frozen conflicts in order to move the peace processes forward" was advised.^[558] Russian officials did not comment on the resolution.^[559]

On 7 June 2008, Abkhaz president Sergei Bagapsh said after meeting with EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Javier Solana that Abkhazia would never consider the replacement of the Russian peacekeepers because "there is no alternative" and Abkhazia would insist on the continued presence of the Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia. Solana said that Russia had a significant role and there would be no conflict resolution without Russia. A two-day visit to Abkhazia by fifteen EU ambassadors was finished that day.^[560] Giorgi Baramidze, the Georgian deputy prime minister and minister on European and Euro-Atlantic integration, said: "Georgia is ready to sign a ceasefire agreement with Abkhazia if it is guaranteed by the European Union." Baramidze said that the loss of Gagra, Sukhumi and most of Abkhazia for Georgia was caused by absence of an effective guarantor of earlier agreements. He added, "We want to carry out our peace plan."^[560]

Pro-Russian authorities of South Ossetia announced to have expelled 12 European ambassadors from South Ossetia due to their meeting with pro-Georgian government of South Ossetia on 22 June.^[561]

On 23 June 2008, Georgian deputy foreign minister Grigol Vashadze visited Moscow in order to organize a meeting between Georgian and Russian presidents. The Speaker of the Georgian Parliament Davit Bakradze said that Georgian president would discuss the situation in Abkhazia. Bakradze hoped that the situation would improve.^[562] Vashadze met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin and talked about the situation in Abkhazia.^[563] On 27 June 2008, Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that Georgia had proposed Russia to divide Abkhazia into Georgian and Russian spheres of influence. Georgian refugees would return to Gali and Ochamchira District and the line of contact would be moved from Enguri river to Kodori river in the north. Russia would win by Georgia's cancelation of bid for the NATO membership. When Abkhazia's leader Sergei Bagapsh arrived in Moscow on 26 June, he also met with Grigory Karasin to discuss this plan.^[564] Abkhaz authorities rejected the proposal on Abkhazia's division. Abkhaz official Ruslan Kishmaria suggested that Abkhazia might demand the return of Abkhazia's historical medieval capital Kutaisi.^[565] Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov denied that Russia was considering the plan to divide Abkhazia. However, an anonymous source in the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed the existence of such plan. Later, the Ministry called the report as "deliberate leak of information."^[566][567] The Georgian Foreign Ministry denied the report on proposed spheres of influence in Abkhazia.^[568]

On 25 June 2008, Saakashvili met with high-ranking German officials in Berlin to discuss a new peace plan.^[569] Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel met with Saakashvili. She said that Georgia would become a member of the NATO, but NATO membership depended on the settlement of the conflict in Abkhazia. She said that "the Russian peacekeeping mission should continue until new variants can be found in talks" and Germany would also be involved in the peace process.^[570] Saakashvili was planning to visit a summit of the leaders of the member parties of the International Democrat Union in Paris.^[571]

Patricia Flor, German ambassador to Georgia, was planning to meet with Sergei Bagapsh and other high-ranking officials in Sukhumi on 27 June.^[572]

On 28 June 2008, the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE supported Georgia's territorial integrity, with OSCE PA President Göran Lennmarker saying: "We want to find a compromise and a peaceful resolution of this issue."^[573] On 30 June, American representative said that the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly urged Russia to respect Georgia's sovereignty by refraining from relations with the governments of the separatist territories.^[574]

On 30 June 2008, U.N. Secretary-General’s Group of Friends discussed the Abkhaz conflict in Berlin.^[575] A three-part peace plan was announced by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, according to which a trust-building and the repatriation of around 250,000 refugees to Abkhazia would be followed first by the rebuilding of the infrastructure and then by a settlement of the conflict. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, along with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, endorsed the German plan. Georgian president Saakashvili also accepted the plan.^[576]

On 7 July 2008, the United States Department of State called on the central Georgian government and the Abkhaz de facto authorities to resume negotiations. The Department of State also called on Russia to stop "provocative" actions and proposed the deployment of International Police Force to Abkhazia.^[577] However, Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh denied the possibility of removal of the Russian peacekeepers. The State Department spokesman also said that Condoleezza Rice would visit Georgia to support a peaceful settlement to the Abkhaz and South Ossetian conflicts.^[578][579]

The visit of OSCE ambassadors and the Danish foreign minister to Georgia began on 7 July, which would last until 9 July and separatists would also be visited.^[580]

On 8 July 2008, David Bakradze, chairman of Georgia's parliament, said that he raised the issue of changing the peacekeeping format in Abkhazia with UN envoy Bertrand Ramcharan. He added that if the peacekeeping format did not change, then Georgia would make a unilateral decision regarding the Russian peacekeepers.^[581] Ramcharan arrived in Abkhazia on 11 July to negotiate resumption of Abkhaz-Georgian talks.^[582]

On 9 July 2008, European diplomats stated 2 criteria for the European Union to become involved in the peacekeeping operation in Abkhazia. These criteria were: security for the foreign personnel and mutual consent from the conflict sides.^[583]

On 11 July 2008, the Parliament of Georgia adopted a resolution urging the international community to back Georgian peace proposals. The resolution said, "Otherwise, the Georgian side will be forced to undertake appropriate legal measures in the nearest future for the de-legitimization and for the prompt withdrawal of the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the conflict zones." The Western officials earlier had told Georgian authorities to pause the demand for the removal of the Russian peacekeepers.^[584]

On 14 July 2008, Sergei Bagapsh met with special envoy of the German Foreign Ministry for Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus, Hans-Dieter Lucas. Peace plan was discussed.^[585] On the same day EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Peter Semneby met with Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh in Sukhumi. Bagapsh said that he studied a draft plan on the settlement of the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict that was worked out by the U.N. Secretary-General’s Group of Friends, but he suggested that it was unacceptable for Abkhazia in its current form. Bagapsh stressed that the main condition for resuming the dialogue with Georgia was "the withdrawal of all armed units from the Kodori gorge and the signing of an agreement on non-use of force". He also said that he was "not going to discuss Abkhazia’s status with anyone" because Abkhazia was "an independent, democratic state." Peter Semneby also met with Prime Minister of Abkhazia Alexander Ankvab and foreign minister Sergei Shamba.^[586] Sergei Shamba said that "more preparation" was required.^[587]

On 14 July, the U.S. Department of State said in a statement it was "deeply troubled" by Russia’s acknowledgement that Russian military plane flew over South Ossetia because "Such actions raise questions about Russia's role as peacekeeper and facilitator of the negotiations and threaten stability throughout the entire region."^[588] That day, a special session was held by the OSCE Permanent Council. The need for the resumption of talks regarding peace between Georgian and South Ossetian authorities was hightlighted.^[589] On 15 July 2008, NATO said it was concerned by Russian military flights. Russia's peacekeeping and mediating duty was questioned.^[590]

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier met with Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon. Then Steinmeier had a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said Russia wanted both Georgia and Abkhazia "to accept obligations not to use force," and the withdrawal of the Georgian forces from the Kodori Gorge.^[591]

Georgian president Saakashvili told The Times, "situation is precarious and the things they [Russia] are doing are outrageous. Unfortunately, they are not opposed by the Europeans and other players." When asked about the possibility of war, Saakashvili responded: "The point is that every day we are waking up with some surprises and when sometimes I think it can’t get any worse, then it does get worse."^[592] Ronald Asmus wrote that Russia was trying "to provoke Tbilisi into actions that could lead to further Russian military intervention." He also wrote, "In the short term, we need to prevent a conflict from starting this summer." Asmus suggested that Russia would then focus on Crimea.^[593]

On 16 July 2008, Georgian National Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaia said that "polishing" of the new German plan was still needed despite "positive elements" being present there. Lomaia also said that the return of IDPs could not start until the Russian peacekeeping force was pulled out.^[594] David Bakradze said that if a German plan for resolving the conflict did not get large support, Georgia would be forced to "unilaterally bring an influence to bear on the deployment of armed forces in Abkhazia."^[595]

Russian human rights activists began collecting signatures against the escalation of the Russian-Georgian tensions. They were of the opinion that the conflict was looming to transform into war between the two countries.^[596]

On 17 July 2008, the Georgian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that France supported the active involvement of the EU in the process of peaceful settlement of the conflicts in Georgia.^[597]

On 17 July 2008, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the repatriation of refugees to Abkhazia was "entirely unrealistic at this stage", adding "the situation first needs to be improved and trust restored."^[598][599] German Foreign Minister Steinmeier met with his Georgian counterpart Eka Tkeshelashvili in Tbilisi.^[600] Steinmeier said in Tbilisi that due to recent multiple incidents, the international community had "growing anxiety" and there were no more "frozen conflicts."^[601] Abkhaz foreign minister Sergei Shamba said that Georgia first had to withdraw its troops from Kodori Gorge before Abkhazia would begin negotiations.^[602] On the evening of the same day, Saakashvili said at a briefing that there were no plans in Tbilisi to use force to restore control over Abkhazia.^[603] Saakashvili called Lavrov's statement on the refugees "shameful" and said that blocking the return of refugees would be "inhumane and barbaric decision."^[604] Steinmeier met with Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili in Batumi.^[603] Saakashvili said at a joint briefing that the conflicts of the 20th century must be solved with "modern European methods". Steinmeier said that Germany viewed Abkhazia to be Georgia's inalienable part.^[605] Steinmeier said that he wanted "a peaceful resolution based on the territorial integrity of Georgia". Sources from the German delegation called the talks with Saakashvili "difficult".^[606] The Georgian Foreign Ministry stated on 18 July that Russia was seeking to legalize the results of the Russian-sponsored ethnic cleansing.^[607]

On 18 July, Steinmeier met with Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh in Gali.^[608] After his meeting with Steinmeier, Bagapsh said that Abkhazia still would not consider German peace proposal and he intended to present his own plan.^[603] Chairman of the Georgian Parliament, Davit Bakradze, called the Abkhaz refusal "just a political game" and said that the Russian position would be "decisive".^[609] On the same day, Frank-Walter Steinmeier met with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. Lavrov suggested an international "road map" on Abkhazia, however, he resisted the German plan since Georgian refugees would return to Abkhazia at the beginning of conflict resolution. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also received Steinmeier.^[610] Medvedev insisted that Georgia must withdraw its forces from the Kodori Gorge otherwise there would be no peace between Georgia and Abkhazia.^[611] According to the source of the Russian newspaper Kommersant, Lavrov admitted to Steinmeier that the Georgian withdrawal from the Kodori Gorge was less likely in the near future.^[612] American diplomat Matthew Bryza said that Russian and Abkhaz rejection of the German peace plan was alarming.^[613]

On 21 July 2008, Russian Newsweek published an article where a source with close links with the Kremlin was quoted as saying that the territorial problems of Georgia could be settled if pro-Russian government came to power in Georgia. Russia viewed the tensions with Georgia as a part of Russia-America confrontation. Sources told Newsweek that the Russian overflight over South Ossetia in early July was sanctioned by Russian president Dmitry Medvedev after consultation with Vladimir Putin. There were indications that Georgia would receive the status of NATO associate member in December 2008, and Russia understood that it was forced to settle the Georgian problem quickly. The Russian Foreign Ministry source said that Irakli Alasania negotiated the meeting between Georgian and Abkhaz presidents in May 2008; however, the interested parties organized the blasts in Abkhazia, which caused this meeting to be cancelled.^[614]

On 21 July 2008, REGNUM News Agency reported that the western mediators were proposing to replace Georgian troops in the Kodori gorge with international police force. This force would exclude Russia.^[615] Matthew Bryza said that currently there was no need to deploy international force in Abkhazia and the United States was working to establish direct dialogue between Georgian and Abkhaz sides.^[616] Abkhaz foreign minister Sergei Shamba said that the replacement of Georgian troops with international force was his initiative.^[617]

By 22 July 2008, Georgian intelligence had given the West some proof of Russian military build-up in Abkhazia. The Georgian government stated on 22 July that "the German plan in its present form does not address the proximate cause of the recent, dangerous escalation in the conflict zones: the role and actions of Russia, a central player in degrading security in Georgia." Carl Bildt, Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs, said that Russia's 16 April decision was the culmination of annexation of Abkhazia.^[618] On 23 July, Daniel Fried, Assistant Secretary of State, stressed that Georgia’s territorial integrity and the return of refugees to Abkhazia were the key principles, and promised that the removal of Russian peacekeepers would be discussed.^[618][619] Russian foreign minister Lavrov told Condoleezza Rice that the return of the refugees to Abkhazia must be postponed to the later phase of the peace settlement. On 24 July, analyst Vladimir Socor criticized the German plan and stated that Germany was more sympathetic towards Russia's position on Georgia's territorial integrity.^[618]

On 23 July 2008, the meeting of the EU foreign ministers, after hearing German Foreign Minister Steinmeier's report on Abkhazia, recognized that Russia was a party to the conflict in Georgia.^[620]

On 24 July 2008, Matthew Bryza said that Russia "has taken steps that are deeply provocative and have led to some people in Georgia calculating that their only way forward is through escalation, and that is a path that cannot succeed."^[621] Bryza arrived in Georgia on 25 July and was planning to visit Sukhumi together with Patricia Flor, German Ambassador to Georgia.^[622]

On 25 July 2008, the South Ossetian separatists rejected proposal by the OSCE chairman-in-office Alexander Stubb to hold Georgia-South Ossetia meeting in Helsinki. The separatists had previously refused to participate in talks in Brussels arranged by the EU on 22 July.^[623] According to Kommersant, the South Ossetian decision to refuse participation in Brussels talks was coordinated with Moscow.^[624]

On 25 July, the Abkhaz separatists met with Matthew Bryza. Bryza declared in Sukhumi that Russia was "more or less" in favor of the German plan approved by the Group of the Friends of the UN Secretary General.^[625] Lack of progress in peace settlement alarmed Bryza. Abkhaz officials suggested that the German project was irrelevant to Abkhazia regardless of which country supported it.^[626] Bryza tried to persuade the Abkhaz authorities to unanimously agree to talks in Berlin the following week, but Abkhaz officials refused.^[627] Later that day, Abkhaz president Sergei Bagapsh hinted that the Abkhaz could meet with the Group of Friends in Berlin. Abkhaz foreign minister Sergei Shamba also said that the Abkhaz "in principle" did not oppose talks in Berlin. However, according to Shamba, Abkhazia would not resume direct negotiations with Georgia's central government.^[628] Russian ambassador to UN Vitaly Churkin said that Russia objected to urgent meeting of the UN Secretary General's Group of Friends on Georgia.^[629] According to the Jamestown Foundation, the Western involvement "may help steer the process away from the Russian-controlled formats. This is why Moscow encouraged Sukhumi to thwart the German-proposed consultations."^[630] Russian editorial opined that the Western initiatives contradicted Russia's interests and the placement of American bases in Abkhazia could lead to the loss of the North Caucasus for Russia.^[631][632]

On 26 July, Matthew Bryza, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, left Sukhumi and arrived in Tbilisi. He said that Georgian and Abkhaz separatist officials must start direct unconditional talks.^[633] Georgian Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaia said after meeting with Bryza that the United States proposed a new peace plan combining elements from Saakashvili, Steinmeier and Rice plans.^[634][635] Bryza denied media reports that he had demanded the Georgian withdrawal from the Kodori Gorge.^[636]

On 28 July 2008, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed his concern over the escalation in Abkhazia, which could have "unpredictable consequences for a fragile peace process", and increasing hostility between Russia and Georgia.^[637]

On 29 July 2008, Bagapsh said that Abkhazia would never agree to the deployment of the international police force to Abkhazia.^[638]

On 30 July 2008, a German Foreign Ministry spokesman said that efforts were made by Germany to organize a meeting between the Georgian and Abkhaz officials. Abkhaz separatists had earlier rejected to attend talks in Berlin scheduled on 30–31 July.^[639]

On 31 July 2008, Abkhaz president Sergei Bagapsh said there would be a separate meeting between Abkhazia and the Group of UN Secretary General's Friends on Georgia (the U.K., Germany, Russia, U.S. and France). Bagapsh said that Georgia would hold a separate meeting with the Group. Bagapsh also said, "The meeting was initially planned for July 28–29. However, this didn't suit us. We have settled on August 15–20 for the meeting."^[640]

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