Talk:Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

This article was nominated for deletion on 13 July 2024. The result of the discussion was keep.

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@CipherRephic and Chessrat: In the deletion discussion you both stated there is now an opinion poll for the next United Kingdom general election. Can you please provide a link. Thanks --John B123 (talk) 18:48, 15 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Please ignore the above, its now in the article.--John B123 (talk) 18:53, 15 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]

There is a report produced by MoreInCommon and the UCL Policy Lab titled "Change Pending The Path to the 2024 General Election and Beyond" https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/e3in12zd/change-pending.pdf Can someone with more experience of these topics decide whether this would be more appropriate here or in the 2024 election topic.LarryJayCee (talk) 12:22, 16 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]

The voting in the 2024 election, as noted in the article, bore little relationship to the polling to the day before. That polling grossly exaggerated the Labour vote in the actual election. It is also the case that the latest poll after the election almost exactly mirrors the incorrect polling before the election. The indication in this article that Labour has improved since the election is utterly wrong: it the same as before the election.

I would suggest that a line giving polling average immediately prior to the election, as well as the result, would increase the understanding of readers to the strange anomalies which we see. RERTwiki (talk) 16:44, 16 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]

When the turnout on Polling day is the lowest since universal suffrage was introduced, which was not predicted, you cannot expect the pollsters who were assuming a rather higher turnout to get it right. YouGov's final MRP was pretty good, underestimating the Tories by 19 seats and overestimating Labour (not counting the Speaker) by the same number. It was evident to those who followed the polling closely that Labour's lead was falling rapidly in the last week before Polling day, but to see it you have to strip out the pollsters who had not been polling regularly before the election was called (and YouGov, who changed their methodology in the middle of the campaign). LarryJayCee (talk) 18:14, 16 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Out of all the numerous pollsters, a few were bound to get close just by chance. By just keeping an eye on what was going on, I got closer to the result than most of them. If you throw enough darts at a board, some will hit the bullseye. Btljs (talk) 21:32, 1 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Both RERTwiki and Btljs have good points. The polling for the last election really was hit and miss. Mainly miss. Having said that, the general trends were about right, although some would argue that that is stretching the meaning of the word "general". I’ve added a 'See also' wikilink to the last article for easy reference (which for some reason was overlooked) so that people can easily refer to those polls. Oh, and LarryJayCee, predictions of turnout are part of the opinion poll predictions, aren’t they. Boscaswell talk 04:57, 11 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]