2017 Bennelong by-election: Difference between revisions

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A '''by-election for the [[Australian House of Representatives]] seat of [[Division of Bennelong|Bennelong]]''' was held on 16 December 2017.
A '''by-election for the [[Australian House of Representatives]] seat of [[Division of Bennelong|Bennelong]]''' was held on 16 December 2017.


Previous incumbent and [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]] candidate [[John Alexander (Australian politician)|John Alexander]] won the by-election despite an approximate five percent [[two-party-preferred vote|two-party]] [[Swing (Australian politics)|swing]] away to [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]] candidate [[Kristina Keneally]] which made the seat marginal.<ref name=abcwin>[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/9265316 Bennelong by-election: Liberal John Alexander wins, Labor buoyed by swing: ABC 16 December 2017]</ref><ref name=antony>[http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bennelong-by-election-2017/ 2017 Bennelong by-election: Antony Green ABC]</ref><ref name=marginal0-6%>[http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/party-codes.htm#status Seat status (Party 'safeness') - Political party name abbreviations & codes, demographic ratings and seat status: AEC]</ref>
Previous incumbent and [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]] candidate [[John Alexander (Australian politician)|John Alexander]] won the by-election despite an approximate five percent [[two-party-preferred vote|two-party]] [[Swing (Australian politics)|swing]] away to [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]] candidate [[Kristina Keneally]] which made the seat marginal.<ref name=abcwin>[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/9265316 Bennelong by-election: Liberal John Alexander wins, Labor buoyed by swing: ABC 16 December 2017]</ref><ref name=antony>[http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bennelong-by-election-2017/ 2017 Bennelong by-election: Antony Green ABC]</ref><ref name=marginal0-6%>[http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/party-codes.htm#status Seat status (Party 'safeness') - Political party name abbreviations & codes, demographic ratings and seat status: AEC]</ref> Up to 16,000 postal votes are still to be counted, though these are not expected to effect the outcome.<ref>[http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/alexander-easily-retains-bennelong-and-how-the-lnp-saved-labors-trad-in-queensland-20171217-h068m4.html Alexander easily retains Bennelong, and how the LNP saved Labor's Trad in Queensland]</ref>


==Background==
==Background==

Revision as of 22:19, 18 December 2017

The Division of Bennelong covers 60 km² on Sydney's lower north shore, including all of Ryde Council and parts of Hornsby Council and Parramatta Council. It includes the suburbs of Denistone, Denistone East, Denistone West, East Ryde, Eastwood, Epping, Macquarie Park, Marsfield, Meadowbank, Melrose Park, North Epping, North Ryde, Putney, Ryde, Tennyson Point and West Ryde; as well as parts of Beecroft, Carlingford, Chatswood West, Dundas, Ermington and Gladesville.

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Bennelong was held on 16 December 2017.

Previous incumbent and Liberal candidate John Alexander won the by-election despite an approximate five percent two-party swing away to Labor candidate Kristina Keneally which made the seat marginal.[1][2][3] Up to 16,000 postal votes are still to be counted, though these are not expected to effect the outcome.[4]

Background

Amid the 2017 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis, the trigger for the by-election was the resignation of Liberal incumbent John Alexander effective 11 November 2017. Following the increased media attention on the citizenship status of parliamentarians, Alexander asked British authorities for evidence of his father renouncing British Citizenship. They were unable to find any, leaving Alexander unable to demonstrate he was not a British citizen by descent, meaning he would be ineligible under Section 44 of the Constitution to sit in the Parliament of Australia.[5] Alexander subsequently renounced his British citizenship, in order to nominate for election again.[5]

Speaker of the House of Representatives Tony Smith issued the writ for the election on 13 November 2017, the same day that Alexander officially submitted his resignation.[6]

Key dates

  • Monday 13 November 2017 – Issue of writ
  • Monday 20 November 2017 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Thursday 23 November 2017 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Friday 24 November 2017 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Tuesday 28 November 2017 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday 16 December 2017 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • Friday 29 December 2017 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • Sunday 21 February 2018 – Last day for return of writs

As at least 33 days must elapse between the issue of a writ and the date of a by-election, the earliest Saturday that the by-election could take place was on 16 December.

Candidates

12 candidates in ballot paper order[7]
Party Candidate Background
  Liberty Alliance Tony Robinson Orthopaedic surgeon[8]
  Sustainable Australia Wesley Folitarik Urban planner[9]
  Science James Jansson Entrepreneur[10]
  Liberal John Alexander Bennelong MP 2010−2017 and former professional tennis player[11][12]
  Labor Kristina Keneally Journalist, NSW state MP 2003−2012 and 42nd Premier of New South Wales 2009−2011[13][14]
  People’s Party James Platter Former teacher, writer and former Army Reservist[15]
  Greens Justin Alick Overseas aid and sustainable development advocate[16]
  Affordable Housing Anthony Ziebell Software engineer[7] and tenancy advocate[17]
  Non-Custodial Parents Anthony Fels Former member of the Western Australian Legislative Council[7]
  Conservatives Joram Richa Manager[7] and conservative activist[18]
  Christian Democrats Gui Dong Cao Pastor[7]
  Progressives Chris Golding Former policy officer in the NSW Department of Primary Industries[19]

Events

Following the win by Barnaby Joyce in a similarly Section 44 triggered by-election in the Division of New England on December 2nd, the Liberal-National coalition maintained their one seat majority in the Australian House of Representatives.[20] However, a loss in Bennelong would leave the government reliant on crossbench support. To the end, former New South Wales Premier Kristina Keneally was chosen as a high profile Labor candidate given the unique opportunity for the opposition to destabilise the government's position in parliament outside of a general election.[21]

In the months prior to the by-election, the 2017 Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey was conducted asking the question, "Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?". Bennelong was among 12 of 47 federal electoral divisions in New South Wales and among 17 of 150 seats nationally to record a majority No response; with Yes on 49.8 percent and No on 50.2 percent, compared to the New South Wales result of Yes on 57.8 percent and No on 42.2 percent, and the national result of Yes on 61.6 percent and No on 38.4 percent. Parliament passed legislation to legalise same-sex marriage on 8 December 2017.[22][23][24]

On 12 December 2017, Labor Senator Sam Dastyari announced his resignation from the Australian Senate after weeks of controversy over his links and interactions with Chinese donors.[25] The commentary deriving from the resignation a few days prior to the by-election was mixed, which some commentators signalling it may damage the Labor brand with voters right before they head to the polls while others point to the large Chinese-Australian community in the electorate who might have taken away that the government is pushing a "China-phobic narrative", given the pressure placed on Dastyari to resign in the weeks prior.[26]

On 14 December 2017, it was revealed that Liberal candidate John Alexander had failed the requirement to declare rental income to the parliament's register of member's interests from his $1440-a-night 100-acre $4.8-million property in the New South Wales Southern Highlands which he had purchased in June 2017.[27][28]

Polling

Bennelong by-election polling
Date Firm Sample Primary vote Two-party vote
LIB ALP GRN OTH LIB ALP
13–14 Dec 2017 Galaxy [29] 524 40% 38% 8% 14% 51% 49%
12 Dec 2017 ReachTEL [30] 819 41.3% 36.3% 7.5% 14.9% 53% 47%
9–10 Dec 2017 Newspoll [31] 529 39% 39% 9% 13% 50% 50%
16 Nov 2017 ReachTEL [32] 864 41.6% 34.5% 5.9% 18.0% 53% 47%
15 Nov 2017 Galaxy [32] 579 42% 39% − − 50% 50%
2016 election 50.4% 28.5% 9.1% 12.0% 59.7% 40.3%

Results

See also: Electoral results for the Division of Bennelong
Bennelong by-election, 2017[33][34]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal John Alexander 36,755 45.1 −5.3
Labor Kristina Keneally 29,162 35.8 +7.3
Greens Justin Alick 5,472 6.7 −2.4
Conservatives Joram Richa 3,517 4.3 +4.3
Christian Democrats Gui Dong Cao 2,534 3.1 −3.3
Science James Jansson 1,005 1.2 +1.2
Sustainable Australia Wesley Folitarik 941 1.2 +1.2
Affordable Housing Anthony Ziebell 707 0.9 +0.9
Liberty Alliance Tony Robinson 695 0.9 +0.9
Progressives Chris Golding 417 0.5 +0.5
People's Party James Platter 178 0.2 +0.2
Non-Custodial Parents Anthony Fels 127 0.2 +0.2
Total formal votes 81,510 92.4 −2.5
Informal votes 6,696 7.6 +2.5
Turnout 88,206 82.8 (−8.9)
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal John Alexander 44,801 55.0 −4.8
Labor Kristina Keneally 36,710 45.0 +4.8
Liberal hold Swing −4.8

Results are not final.[35]

Previous incumbent and Liberal candidate John Alexander won the by-election despite an approximate five percent two-party swing away to Labor candidate Kristina Keneally which made the seat marginal.[1][2][3]

The Liberal primary vote so far, however, is the lowest on record in Bennelong's 68-year history, including the 2007 Bennelong outcome which was the only election in which the Liberals failed to win Bennelong.[36]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b Bennelong by-election: Liberal John Alexander wins, Labor buoyed by swing: ABC 16 December 2017
  2. ^ a b 2017 Bennelong by-election: Antony Green ABC
  3. ^ a b Seat status (Party 'safeness') - Political party name abbreviations & codes, demographic ratings and seat status: AEC
  4. ^ Alexander easily retains Bennelong, and how the LNP saved Labor's Trad in Queensland
  5. ^ a b Robertson, James (17 November 2017). "John Alexander confirms eligibility to stand in byelection on advice from UK Home Office". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 November 2017.
  6. ^ "Service Plan: Bennelong By-election 2017" (PDF). Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 17 December 2017.
  7. ^ a b c d e "2017 Bennelong by-election candidate details". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 24 November 2017.
  8. ^ "Tasmania". Australian Liberty Alliance. Retrieved 24 November 2017.
  9. ^ "Bennelong by-election 2017". Sustainable Australia. Retrieved 24 November 2017.
  10. ^ Jannson, James (23 November 2017). "Bennelong By-Election Candidate, Science Party Leader James Jansson" (Press release). Science Party. Retrieved 23 November 2017.
  11. ^ "Liberal backbencher John Alexander to resign after raising citizenship concerns". ABC News (Australia). 11 November 2017. Retrieved 11 November 2017.
  12. ^ Raue, Ben (13 November 2017). "Bennelong won't be an easy win for Labor – the government's counting on it". The Guardian. Retrieved 13 November 2017.
  13. ^ Knaus, Christopher; Murphy, Katharine (14 November 2017). "Kristina Keneally will run against John Alexander in Bennelong byelection - politics live". The Guardian. Retrieved 14 November 2017.
  14. ^ Gartrell, Adam (14 November 2017). "Former NSW premier Kristina Keneally to stand for Labor in Bennelong byelection". The Age. Retrieved 14 November 2017.
  15. ^ "Candidates for Federal Election". Australian People's Party. Retrieved 24 November 2017.
  16. ^ Karp, Paul (21 November 2017). "Bennelong byelection: Greens focus on house prices in bid to unseat Alexander". The Guardian. Retrieved 21 November 2017.
  17. ^ "Affordable Housing Party goes head to head for the seat of Bennelong". domain.com.au. 16 November 2017. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
  18. ^ "Subscribe - dailytelegraph". www.dailytelegraph.com.au. Retrieved 23 November 2017.
  19. ^ "Chris Golding for Bennelong - About". Retrieved 21 November 2017.
  20. ^ "Barnaby Joyce wins New England by-election in a landslide". The Australian. 3 December 2017. Retrieved 17 December 2017.
  21. ^ "Kristina Keneally: Former NSW premier to go up against John Alexander in Bennelong by-election". abc.net.au. 15 November 2017. Retrieved 17 December 2017.
  22. ^ "Results for New South Wales". Australian Bureau of Statistics. 15 November 2017. Retrieved 15 November 2017.
  23. ^ "Full results of Australia's vote for same-sex marriage, electorate by electorate – interactive". The Guardian. 15 November 2017. Retrieved 15 November 2017.
  24. ^ Wade, Matt (15 November 2017). "Same-sex marriage postal survey: how Sydney electorates voted". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 15 November 2017.
  25. ^ "Sam Dastyari quits as Labor senator over China connections". The Guardian. 12 December 2017. Retrieved 17 December 2017.
  26. ^ "Sam Dastyari resignation fuels fight for Bennelong, signals crackdown on China influence". Sydney Morning Herald. 12 December 2017. Retrieved 17 December 2017.
  27. ^ Massola, James (14 December 2017). "John Alexander has not declared rental income from his $1400 per day country estate". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 14 December 2017.
  28. ^ Hutchens, Christopher; Murphy, Katharine (14 December 2017). "John Alexander on back foot in Bennelong over rental income declaration". The Guardian. Retrieved 14 December 2017.
  29. ^ Bowe, William (15 December 2017). "Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 15 December 2017.
  30. ^ Bowe, William (14 December 2017). "ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 14 December 2017.
  31. ^ Bowe, William (12 December 2017). "ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 14 December 2017.
  32. ^ a b Bowe, William (17 November 2017). "Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 18 November 2017.
  33. ^ 2017 Bennelong by-election results: AEC
  34. ^ 2017 Bennelong by-election results: ABC
  35. ^ Commentary - 2017 Bennelong by-election: Antony Green ABC
  36. ^ Electoral results for the Division of Bennelong – lowest Liberal primary vote in Bennelong history was 45.5 percent in 2007 amid 13 candidates.

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