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Revision as of 15:27, 25 July 2023

45th Canadian federal election
← 2021 On or before October 20, 2025 (2025-10-20)
338 seats in the House of Commons[a]
170[b] seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Trudeau G7 Cropped.jpeg
Pierre Poilievre with Wife (cropped).jpg
Yves-François Blanchet in October 2009.jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 September 10, 2022 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Carleton Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 160[d] seats, 32.62% 119 seats, 33.74% 32 seats, 7.64%
Current seats 158 117 32
Seats needed Increase 12 Increase 53 N/A[c]
 
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
Elizabeth May 4431 (37439753570) (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier portrait 2023.png
Leader Jagmeet Singh Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 November 19, 2022 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South Saanich—Gulf Islands N/A[e]
Last election 25 seats, 17.82% 2 seats, 2.33% 0 seats, 4.94%
Current seats 25 2 0
Seats needed Increase 145 Increase 168 Increase 170
Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal



The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.

The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[1] In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be held no more than five years after the preceding election.

The election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons.[2][3][4]

The election will potentially be the first contested using a new 343-constituency electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. New electoral boundary sets for each of the ten provinces were finalized between February 14, 2023[5][6] and July 8, 2023[7], and are expected to be officially proclaimed in September 2023. If this schedule is maintained, any election that occurs after April 2024 will use the new boundaries, while any called prior will re-use the 338-seat boundary set presently in force.[8]

Background

The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20 that year, resulted in the incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, retaining government and their minority status parliament, whilst also picking up five more seats than they had at dissolution.[9][f] On September 27, Annamie Paul announced that she was resigning as the Green Party leader;[10] on November 10, she stated she had formally resigned and left the Green Party.[11]

Electoral redistribution

Main article: 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution

The Constitution Act, 1867, requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution of seats following each decennial Canadian census.[12] Using the 2021 Canadian census population results, the 2022 redistribution began in October 2021, and is expected to be completed in September 2023.[13] On October 15, the chief electoral officer announced that allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats.[14] The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in 2012 redistribution.[15][16] Bill C-14 amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867, commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause".[17][18] The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15,[19] the Senate on June 21,[20] and received royal assent on June 23.[21] The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, which would result in an increase to 343 seats.[22]

Pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act as amended, ten federal electoral boundary commissions were established, one for each province, on November 1, 2021.[23] The boundary-drawing process commenced upon the release of census data in February 2022. The respective commissions completed their work and finalized new electoral boundary sets on a rolling basis, beginning with the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island commissions on February 14, 2023[5][6], and finishing with the Ontario commission on July 8, 2023[7]. The Chief Electoral Officer is now obliged to use the final reports of the electoral boundary commissions to formalize a Representation Order, which is expected to be proclaimed in September 2023.[8]

The changes to federal electoral district boundaries may take effect at the earliest in 2024, which based on a September 2023 proclamation will more specifically occur in April 2024.[8][14] If the election occurs before the new electoral boundaries have been established, it will occur with the current electoral district boundaries, which have been in effect since the 2015 federal election was called on August 4, 2015.[24][25]

Parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal, having been disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot, and sits as an independent.[26]

Name Ideology Position Leader 2021 result Current standing
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism 		Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
32.62%
160 / 338
158 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism 		Centre-right to right-wing Pierre Poilievre
33.74%
119 / 338
117 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism
Quebec sovereigntist
Social democracy 		Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.64%
32 / 338
32 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism 		Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
17.82%
25 / 338
25 / 338
Green Green politics Elizabeth May
2.33%
2 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.19%
0 / 338
3 / 338
Vacant N/A
1 / 338

Incumbents not running for re-election

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Ron Liepert[27] Calgary Signal Hill Alberta February 17, 2023
  Wayne Long[28] Saint John-Rothesay New Brunswick March 14, 2023
  Randall Garrison[29] Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke British Columbia April 27, 2023
  Lloyd Longfield[30] Guelph Ontario June 28, 2023
  Carolyn Bennett[31] Toronto—St. Paul's Ontario July 24, 2023
  Helena Jaczek[32] Markham—Stouffville Ontario July 25, 2023
  Joyce Murray[33] Vancouver Quadra British Columbia July 25, 2023
  Omar Alghabra[34] Mississauga Centre Ontario July 25, 2023

Timeline

See also: 44th Canadian Parliament
Changes in seats held (2021–)
House of Commons – Changes in seats held
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Spadina—Fort York November 22, 2021 Kevin Vuong █ Liberal Excluded from caucus █ Independent
Mississauga—Lakeshore May 27, 2022 Sven Spengemann █ Liberal Resigned[a 1] December 12, 2022 Charles Sousa █ Liberal
Richmond—Arthabaska September 13, 2022 Alain Rayes █ Conservative Left caucus █ Independent
Winnipeg South Centre December 12, 2022 Jim Carr █ Liberal Death June 19, 2023 Ben Carr █ Liberal
Calgary Heritage December 31, 2022 Bob Benzen █ Conservative Resigned July 24, 2023 Shuvaloy Majumdar █ Conservative
Oxford January 27, 2023 Dave MacKenzie █ Conservative Resigned June 19, 2023 Arpan Khanna █ Conservative
Portage—Lisgar February 28, 2023 Candice Bergen █ Conservative Resigned June 19, 2023 Branden Leslie █ Conservative
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount March 8, 2023 Marc Garneau █ Liberal Resigned June 19, 2023 Anna Gainey █ Liberal
Don Valley North March 22, 2023 Han Dong █ Liberal Left caucus █ Independent
Durham July 1, 2023 Erin O'Toole █ Conservative Resigned █ Vacant
  1. ^ to accept a position with the United Nations

2021

  • September 27 – Annamie Paul announced her intent to resign as leader of the Green Party.[35]
  • November 10 – Paul formally submitted her resignation, and ended her membership in the party.[11] The Green Party accepted her resignation a few days later.[36][37]
  • November 15 – Senator Denise Batters launched a petition to review the leadership of Erin O'Toole.[38] Party president Robert Batherson decided the petition was not in order.[38] The following day, Batters was removed from the conservative caucus.[39]
  • November 24 – Amita Kuttner was appointed as Green Party interim leader.[40][41]
  • December 5 – The People's Party concluded its leadership review of Maxime Bernier. He was confirmed and continued as leader.[42][43]

2022

2023

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election
Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
2008
Opinion polls
2011
Opinion polls • By constituency
2015
Opinion polls • By constituency
2019
Opinion polls • By constituency
2021
Opinion polls • By constituency
Next election
Opinion polls
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Notes

  1. ^ A redistribution is required to take effect by 2024, which will increase the total number of seats to 343.
  2. ^ If the redistribution is completed before the election, 172 seats will be needed for a majority.
  3. ^ Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus it is impossible for the party to gain a majority in Parliament.
  4. ^ Includes Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He has not been seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  5. ^ MP for Beauce until being unseated in the 2019 election. Contested the by-election in Portage–Lisgar, lost.
  6. ^ While formal results show the Liberals winning or leading in 160 seats, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and has since sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.

References

  1. ^ "Amendment to Canada Elections Act". Queen's Printer for Canada. November 6, 2006. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
  2. ^ Aiello, Rachel (October 24, 2019). "Split opposition means stronger minority for Liberals, experts say". CTV News. Retrieved October 25, 2019.
  3. ^ Harris, Kathleen (October 21, 2020). "Snap election averted as Liberal government survives confidence vote in Commons". CBC News. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  4. ^ Coyne, Andrew (October 28, 2020). "What, exactly, is a non-confidence vote? Parliament should get to decide". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  5. ^ a b Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Newfoundland and Labrador. "Redistribution process timeline in Newfoundland and Labrador".
  6. ^ a b Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Prince Edward Island. "Redistribution process timeline in PEI".
  7. ^ a b Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario. "Redistribution process timeline in Ontario".
  8. ^ a b c Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission. "Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts".
  9. ^ "Canada: Trudeau's Liberals win minority government, CBC projects". Al Jazeera. September 21, 2021. Archived from the original on September 21, 2021. Retrieved September 21, 2021.
  10. ^ Tasker, John Paul (September 27, 2021). "Annamie Paul is stepping down as Green Party leader". CBC News. Retrieved September 27, 2021.
  11. ^ a b "Annamie Paul officially quits as Green leader, will end membership in party". CBC News. November 10, 2021.
  12. ^ Canada, Elections (August 13, 2021). "Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2022". www.elections.ca. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  13. ^ Canada, Elections (August 12, 2021). "Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts". www.elections.ca. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  14. ^ a b "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. October 15, 2021. Retrieved October 15, 2021.
  15. ^ Woolf, Marie (March 24, 2022). "Liberals table bill to protect number of Quebec seats in Parliament, a condition of deal with NDP". National Post. Archived from the original on June 11, 2022. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
  16. ^ Levitz, Stephanie (March 24, 2022). "Liberal-NDP deal might change which riding you are in". Toronto Star. Archived from the original on March 24, 2022. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
  17. ^ "The representation formula". Elections Canada. 2022. Archived from the original on February 10, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  18. ^ "C-14: An Act to amend the Constitution Act, 1867 (electoral representation)". Parliament of Canada. 2022. Archived from the original on March 24, 2022. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
  19. ^ "Constitution Act" (PDF). Parliamentary Debates (Hansard). Canada: House of Commons of Canada. June 15, 2022. p. 6768.
  20. ^ "Constitution Act, 1867" (PDF). Parliamentary Debates (Hansard). Canada: Senate of Canada. June 21, 2022. pp. 1773–1774.
  21. ^ "JOURNALS Thursday, June 23, 2022". ourcommons.ca. House of Commons of Canada. June 23, 2022. Retrieved June 24, 2022. A message was received informing the Commons that on June 23, at 10:28 p.m., Her Excellency the Governor General signified royal assent by written declaration to the following bills: Bill C-14, An Act to amend the Constitution Act, 1867 (electoral representation) — Chapter No. 6;
  22. ^ "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
  23. ^ Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission (January 20, 2022). "Federal Electoral Boundaries Commissions Launch Redistribution Website and Social Media Accounts".
  24. ^ Proclamation declaring the Representation Order to be in Force effective on the First dissolution of Parliament that Occurs after May 1, 2014, SI/2013-102 , reported in the Canada Gazette, Part II, Vol. 147, Extra, October 5, 2013
  25. ^ "Proclamation Issuing Election Writs" (PDF). Canada Gazette Part II. 149. August 4, 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 6, 2015. Retrieved October 22, 2015.
  26. ^ "Expelled by Liberals, Kevin Vuong wins Toronto riding and says he will keep the seat". National Post. September 23, 2021. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
  27. ^ CBC News (February 17, 2023). "Calgary MP Ron Liepert says he won't seek re-election". cbc.ca. Archived from the original on April 2, 2023. Retrieved April 2, 2023.
  28. ^ "EXCLUSIVE: Wayne Long won't reoffer in next federal election". TJ.news.
  29. ^ Press, Canadian. "B.C. New Democrat MP Randall Garrison says he will not be seeking re-election". battlefordsNOW. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  30. ^ Cassidy, Lianne (June 28, 2023). "News release". mplongfield.ca. Archived from the original on June 28, 2023. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
  31. ^ "Liberal minister Carolyn Bennett announces she will not stand for re-election". CTVNews. July 24, 2023.
  32. ^ X. July 25, 2023 https://twitter.com/HelenaJaczek/status/1683817469331251200. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  33. ^ X. July 25, 2023 https://twitter.com/JoyceMurray/status/1683854698430836740. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  34. ^ X. July 25, 2023 https://twitter.com/OmarAlghabra/status/1683841078183723010. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  35. ^ Aiello, Rachel (September 27, 2021). "Annamie Paul resigns as Green Party leader". CTV News. Retrieved November 10, 2021.
  36. ^ Thurton, David (November 16, 2021). "Green Party accepts Annamie Paul's resignation as leader". CBC News. Retrieved November 17, 2021.
  37. ^ Ballingall, Alex (November 15, 2021). "Green Party formally accepts Annamie Paul's resignation as leader". Toronto Star. Retrieved November 15, 2021.
  38. ^ a b Tasker, John Paul; Thibedeau, Hannah (November 15, 2021). "Conservative senator launches petition to oust Erin O'Toole as leader". CBC News. Retrieved November 17, 2021.
  39. ^ Tasker, John Paul; Thibedeau, Hannah; Dhanraj, Travis (November 16, 2021). "O'Toole kicks senator out of Conservative caucus after she questioned his leadership". CBC News. Retrieved November 17, 2021.
  40. ^ "Green Party appoints Amita Kuttner as Interim Leader". Green Party of Canada. November 24, 2021.
  41. ^ Woolf, Marie (November 25, 2021). "Greens pick astrophysicist Amita Kuttner as interim leader, 1st leader who is trans". CBC News. Retrieved November 25, 2021.
  42. ^ "Maxime Bernier Overwhelmingly Confirmed as PPC Leader by Membership". People's Party of Canada. December 5, 2021. Archived from the original on December 5, 2021.
  43. ^ Paas-Lang, Christian (December 5, 2021). "Maxime Bernier retains leadership of People's Party of Canada after review vote". CBC News. Retrieved December 5, 2021.
  44. ^ Tasker, John Paul (February 2, 2022). "Conservative MPs vote to remove Erin O'Toole as leader". CBC News. Retrieved February 2, 2022.
  45. ^ Aziz, Saba (February 2, 2022). "Conservatives elect Candice Bergen as interim party leader". Global News.
  46. ^ "Bergen advised against telling truckers to leave Ottawa, said protests should be made 'PM's problem'". CTVNews. February 3, 2022. Retrieved February 5, 2022.
  47. ^ "Canada's Trudeau strikes surprise deal to keep power until 2025". Reuters. March 22, 2022. Retrieved March 23, 2022.
  48. ^ "Constitution of the Green Party of Canada". Green Party of Canada. 2018. Retrieved November 15, 2021. Section 2.1.7.2
  49. ^ "Mississauga Liberal MP resigns to work for United Nations less than a year after re-election". Mississauga.com. Retrieved May 29, 2022.
  50. ^ "Sven Spengemann – Member of Parliament – Members of Parliament – House of Commons of Canada". www.ourcommons.ca. Retrieved May 29, 2022.
  51. ^ Paas-Lang, Christian (March 13, 2022). "How the rules could help shape who becomes the next Conservative leader". CBC News. Retrieved March 14, 2022.
  52. ^ Rayes, Alain (September 13, 2022). "Official statement". Twitter. Archived from the original on September 13, 2022. Retrieved September 13, 2022.
  53. ^ "Quebec MP Alain Rayes leaves Conservative caucus after Poilievre victory". Global News. Retrieved September 13, 2022.
  54. ^ Fraser, David (November 19, 2022). "Elizabeth May to return as federal Green Party leader, sharing role on joint-ticket". globalnews.ca. Archived from the original on November 26, 2022.
  55. ^ Tunney, Catharine (December 12, 2022). "Jim Carr, Manitoba MP and former cabinet minister, dies after battle with cancer". CBC News. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
  56. ^ "Liberal Charles Sousa wins federal byelection in Mississauga-Lakeshore, CBC News projects". CBC News. December 12, 2022. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
  57. ^ "There will be a Calgary Heritage byelection this year: Elections Canada". cbc.ca. January 5, 2023. Archived from the original on January 14, 2023.
  58. ^ Abbott, Chris (January 27, 2023). "MacKenzie voices opposition to proposed federal riding changes". chathamdailynews.ca. Archived from the original on January 28, 2023.
  59. ^ Levitz, Stephanie (February 1, 2023). "Candice Bergen, former interim Conservative leader, is resigning from Parliament". The Hamilton Spectator. Archived from the original on February 1, 2023.
  60. ^ Raycraft, Richard (March 8, 2023). "Former cabinet minister Marc Garneau resigning from House of Commons". cbc.ca. Archived from the original on March 8, 2023.
  61. ^ Tunney, Catharine (March 22, 2023). "Liberal MP Han Dong leaving caucus amid foreign interference allegations". CBC News. Retrieved March 22, 2023.
  62. ^ a b c d "4 federal byelections set for June in Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  63. ^ a b c d "Liberals, Conservatives take 2 seats apiece in 4 federal byelections | CBC". CBC. Retrieved June 20, 2023.
  64. ^ "Thank you, Durham. Thank you, Canada". July 2, 2023.
  65. ^ "Former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole not seeking re-election, leaving this spring". ctvnews.ca. March 31, 2023. Archived from the original on March 31, 2023.
  66. ^ @erinotoole (March 31, 2023). "A statement from the Hon. Erin O'Toole, P.C., C.D., M.P." (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 31, 2023 – via Twitter.
  67. ^ Dryden, Joel (July 24, 2023). "Federal byelection to be held today in Calgary Heritage following MP resignation". CBC News. Archived from the original on July 25, 2023. Retrieved July 25, 2023.
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