2018 Maryland gubernatorial election

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2018 Maryland gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2022 →
Turnout59.06% Increase 11.83%[1]
 
Nominee Larry Hogan Ben Jealous
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Boyd Rutherford Susan Turnbull
Popular vote 1,275,644 1,002,639
Percentage 55.35% 43.51%
Hogan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Jealous:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election

Larry Hogan
Republican

Elected Governor

Larry Hogan
Republican

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The 2018 Maryland gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018. The date included the election of the governor, lieutenant governor, and all members of the Maryland General Assembly. Incumbent governor Larry Hogan and Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford, both Republicans, were re-elected to a second term against Democrat Ben Jealous, the former NAACP CEO, and his running mate Susan Turnbull. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

Hogan became the second Republican governor of Maryland to win re-election, and the first since Theodore McKeldin in 1954.[2] This was the first and only Maryland gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.

This is the last time that a Republican won a statewide election in Maryland.

Background

At the presidential level, Maryland is a staunchly Democratic state due to the large number of Democratic voters in the Washington metropolitan area and Baltimore City. Maryland has not seen a Republican presidential candidate win its votes since 1988, and the state has not been within 15% since 2004; Hillary Clinton won the state by 26 points over Donald Trump (60% to 34%) in 2016, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 26 points in 2012 (62% to 36%), and Obama defeated John McCain by 25 points in 2008 (62% to 37%).

Hogan was elected governor in 2014, defeating then-lieutenant governor Anthony Brown by a margin of 51% to 47%; the result was considered one of the biggest election upsets that year.[3] Prior to Hogan's victory, Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected as Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew. However, Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Martin O'Malley and defeated again in 2010, when he faced O'Malley in a rematch.

In April 2018, Hogan had a 68% approval rating, the second-highest approval of any governor in the country, only behind Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, who had a 71% approval rating.[4] Despite the state's Democratic leaning, Hogan had a high approval rating among all partisan groups (65% approval from Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 81% of Republicans).[5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Declined

Endorsements

Larry Hogan
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Judges
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Results

Republican primary results[41]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Larry Hogan (incumbent) 210,935 100.00%
Total votes 210,935 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Deceased

Withdrew

  • Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, policy consultant and wife of U.S. Representative Elijah Cummings[60]
  • Valerie Ervin, former senior advisor to the Working Families Party and former Montgomery County Councilmember[61]
    • Running mate: Marisol Johnson, former vice chair of the Baltimore County Board of Education and small businesswoman[62]
    • (Valerie Ervin, who had been the running mate of Kevin Kamenetz before he died on May 10, became a candidate for governor with Marisol Johnson as running mate on May 17. This came too late to change the primary ballot, so notices were posted at polling places informing voters that votes for Kamenetz and Ervin would be counted as votes for Ervin and Johnson. On June 12, Ervin withdrew from the race.[63])

Declined

Endorsements

Rushern Baker
U.S. senators
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
  • Valerie Ervin, senior adviser to the Working Families Party and former gubernatorial candidate[82]
  • David Trone, businessman[17]
Newspapers and magazines
Valerie Ervin (withdrew)
U.S. representatives
Ben Jealous
Newspapers and magazines
U.S. presidents
U.S. vice presidents
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Individuals
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Kevin Kamenetz (deceased)
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
  • Cathy Bevins, member of the Baltimore County Council[105]
  • Julian E. Jones Jr., member of the Baltimore County Council[105]
Individuals
Rich Madaleno
U.S. representatives
Attorney General
State senators
  • Susan Lee, state senator
  • Will Smith, state senator
State delegates
  • Al Carr, state delegate
  • Jeff Waldstreicher, state delegate
  • Sheila Hixson, state delegate
  • Ana Sol-Gutierrez, state delegate
  • Karen Young, state delegate
  • Jim Gilchrist, state delegate
  • Marice Morales, state delegate
  • Bonnie Cullison, state delegate
  • David Moon, state delegate
  • Anne Kaiser, state delegate
  • Eric Luedtke, state delegate
Local officials
  • David Lublin, former mayor of Chevy Chase[17]
  • Chris Trumbauer, Anne Arundel County Councilmember
  • Peter Benjamin, Garrett Park Mayor
  • Mary Flynn, Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Barney Rush, Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Scott Fosler, Chevy Chase Councilmember and former Montgomery County Councilmember and former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Kathy Strom, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Pat Burda, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Linna Barnes, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Vicky Taplin, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Lance Hoffman, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Pat Baptiste, former Village of Chevy Chase Mayor and former Montgomery County Planning Board member
  • Shirley Brandman, former Montgomery County Board of Education member
  • Meredith Wellington, former Montgomery County Planning Board member
Organizations
Individuals
Alec Ross
Individuals
Jim Shea
Elected officials
State Delegates
  • Cory McCray, state delegate
  • Antonio Hayes, state delegate
Local officials
  • Shannon Sneed, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • John Bullock, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Kristerfer Burnett, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Brandon Scott, Member of Baltimore City Council
Krish Vignarajah
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Rushern
Baker 		Valerie
Ervin 		Ben
Jealous 		Kevin
Kamenetz 		Richard
Madaleno 		Jim
Shea 		Krish
Vignarajah 		Other Undecided
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018 505 ± 4.5% 25% 7% 23% – 9% 6% 5% 2%[a] 22%
OpinionWorks May 29 – June 6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 16% 5% 16% – 4% 4% 4% 7%[b] 44%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 532 ± 6.0% 16% 8% 21% – 6% 4% 4% 2%[c] 39%
Mason-Dixon February 20–24, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 26% – 14% 15% 4% 3% 2% 3%[d] 32%
Goucher College February 12–18, 2018 409 ± 4.8% 19% – 10% 12% 2% 2% 2% 6%[111] 47%
Gonzales Research Archived 2018-01-28 at the Wayback Machine December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 501 ± 4.5% 24% – 14% 14% 5% 1% 2% 8%[e] 33%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 28% – 10% 11% 3% <1% 1% 1%[f] 46%
Goucher College September 14–18, 2017 324 ± 5.4% 13% – 6% 8% 2% 2% 1% 22%[g] 44%
Notes
  1. ^ Alec Ross with 2%, Ralph Jaffe and James Jones with <1%
  2. ^ Alec Ross with 1%, someone else with 6%
  3. ^ Alec Ross with 2%
  4. ^ Alec Ross with 2%, Ralph Jaffe 1%
  5. ^ Maya Rockeymoore 6%, Alec Ross with 1%, Ralph Jaffe with 0%
  6. ^ Alec Ross with 1%</
  7. ^ Doug Gansler 11%, Maya Rockeymoore 8%, Alec Ross with 1%. Other 2%

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Jealous—40–50%
  •   Jealous—30–40%
  •   Baker—30–40%
  •   Baker—40–50%
Democratic primary results[41]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ben Jealous 231,895 39.6%
Democratic Rushern Baker 171,696 29.3%
Democratic Jim Shea 48,647 8.3%
Democratic Krish O'Mara Vignarajah 48,041 8.2%
Democratic Richard Madaleno 34,184 5.8%
Democratic Kevin Kamenetz/Valerie Ervin 18,851 3.2%
Democratic Alec Ross 13,780 2.4%
Democratic Ralph Jaffe 9,405 1.6%
Democratic James Jones 9,188 1.6%
Total votes 585,687 100.0%

Green nomination

Candidates

Declared

Results

Following the Maryland Green Party's nominating procedure, the delegates of the Coordinating Council, which is the party's State Central Committee, made the decision to nominate the gubernatorial ticket as no other candidate had filed by the party's March 30, 2018, deadline. More than one ticket seeking the nomination would have required the party to conduct a primary, an obligation not mandated by the State Board of Elections for non-principal parties.[114]

Green State Central Committee Designation[114]
April 20 – April 25
Candidate Delegates in favor Delegates against Delegates not voting
Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers 15 0 5

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

  • Shawn Quinn, nominee for governor in 2014 and nominee for the House of Delegates in 2010[115]
    • Running mate: Christina Smith
Candidate Votes in favor Votes against Not voting
Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith 32 1 0

General election

Debates

Larry Hogan and Ben Jealous met for their one and only scheduled debate on September 24. The debate was livestreamed in the evening by the Maryland Public Television.[116]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[117] Likely R October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[118] Likely R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[119] Safe R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[120] Likely R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[121] Likely R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[122] Likely R November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[123] Likely R November 5, 2018
Fox News[124][a] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[125] Likely R November 5, 2018
Governing[126] Likely R November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Larry
Hogan (R) 		Ben
Jealous (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Maryland October 4–7, 2018 648 LV ± 4.5% 58% 38% 0% 3%
814 RV ± 4.0% 56% 36% 0% 2%
Gonzales Research October 1–6, 2018 806 ± 3.5% 54% 36% 2%[a] 9%
Mason-Dixon September 24–26, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 52% 37% 2%[a] 9%
Goucher College September 11–16, 2018 472 ± 4.5% 54% 32% 2%[a] 9%
Gonzales Research August 1–8, 2018 831 ± 3.5% 52% 36% 1%[b] 11%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Jealous) July 10–14, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 49% 40% – 11%
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 51% 34% – 14%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 968 ± 4.5% 51% 39% – 10%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018 617 ± 3.9% 44% 31% – 22%
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 50% 33% – 17%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 823 ± 3.5% 49% 36% – 15%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 49% 33% – 18%
Notes
  1. ^ a b c Shawn Quinn (L) and Ian Schlakman (G) with 1%
  2. ^ Shawn Quinn (L) with 1%, Ian Schlakman (G) with 0%
Hypothetical polling
with Rushern Baker
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Larry
Hogan (R) 		Rushern
Baker (D) 		Undecided
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 48% 37% 15%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 968 ± 4.5% 51% 39% 9%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018 617 ± 3.9% 44% 31% 22%
Burton Research & Strategies (R) March 4–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 54% 29% 15%
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 51% 36% 13%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 823 ± 3.5% 47% 37% 16%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 46% 39% 15%
with Richard Madaleno
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Larry
Hogan (R) 		Richard
Madaleno (D) 		Undecided
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 50% 36% 14%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 465–497 ± 6.0–6.5% 50% 40% 10%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018 617 ± 3.9% 45% 27% 26%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 49% 30% 21%
with Alec Ross
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Larry
Hogan (R) 		Alec
Ross (D) 		Undecided
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 465–497 ± 6.0–6.5% 55% 31% 13%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018 617 ± 3.9% 46% 26% 26%
with Jim Shea
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Larry
Hogan (R) 		Jim
Shea (D) 		Undecided
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 465–497 ± 6.0–6.5% 53% 35% 13%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018 617 ± 3.9% 47% 27% 25%
with Krish Vignarajah
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Larry
Hogan (R) 		Krish
Vignarajah (D) 		Undecided
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 465–497 ± 6.0–6.5% 54% 35% 11%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018 617 ± 3.9% 45% 25% 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Larry
Hogan (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Other Undecided
Goucher College February 12–17, 2018 658 ± 3.8% 47% 43% – 10%
GBA Strategies (D) November 14–18, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 45% 35% – –
OpinionWorks October 25 – November 7, 2017 850 ± 3.3% 43% 28% 4% 24%
Washington Post/University of Maryland March 19–22, 2017 914 ± 4.0% 39% 36% 3% 22%
Washington Post/University of Maryland March 16–19, 2017 914 ± 4.0% 41% 37% 2% 20%
with Valerie Ervin
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Larry
Hogan (R) 		Valerie
Ervin (D) 		Undecided
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 465–497 ± 6.0–6.5% 51% 38% 11%
with Kevin Kamenetz
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Larry
Hogan (R) 		Kevin
Kamenetz (D) 		Undecided
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018 617 ± 3.9% 45% 28% 23%
Burton Research & Strategies (R) March 4–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 26% 15%
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 49% 34% 17%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 823 ± 3.5% 48% 34% 18%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 48% 35% 17%
with John Delaney
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Larry
Hogan (R) 		John
Delaney (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2016 879 ± 3.3% 48% 29% 24%
with Tom Perez
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Larry
Hogan (R) 		Tom
Perez (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2016 879 ± 3.3% 48% 24% 28%

Results

Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018[127]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Larry Hogan (incumbent) 1,275,644 55.35% +4.32%
Democratic Ben Jealous 1,002,639 43.51% −3.74%
Libertarian Shawn Quinn 13,241 0.57% −0.89%
Green Ian Schlakman 11,175 0.48% N/A
Write-in 1,813 0.08% -0.18%
Total votes 2,304,512 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

Hogan carried 6 of 8 congressional districts, including 5 held by Democrats. This included the district of then-House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, whom Hogan was defeated by in 1992.

District Larry
Hogan 		Ben
Jealous 		Elected
Representative
1st 79.20% 19.69% Andy Harris
2nd 55.94% 42.90% Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd 55.80% 43.03% John Sarbanes
4th 40.29% 58.74% Anthony Brown
5th 51.91% 47.04% Steny Hoyer
6th 59.41% 39.31% David Trone
7th 43.87% 54.83% Elijah Cummings
8th 53.16% 45.76% Jamie Raskin

See also

References

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  2. ^ Ng, Greg; Amara, Kate (November 6, 2018). "Gov. Larry Hogan makes history with re-election in Maryland". WBAL-TV. Retrieved November 7, 2018.
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  82. ^ Valerie Ervin drops out of Md. governor's race, will endorse Rushern Baker – The Washington Post
  83. ^ The Editorial Board (May 19, 2018). "Democrats should choose Rushern Baker for Maryland governor". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
  84. ^ Edwards, Donna [@DonnaFEdwards] (May 15, 2018). "You're terrific, but I'll be supporting my friend @ValerieErvin for MD Governor should she choose to run" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  85. ^ The Editorial Board (June 13, 2018). "Ben Jealous for governor". The Baltimore Sun. Archived from the original on June 13, 2018. Retrieved June 14, 2018.
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  91. ^ Rosario Dawson [@rosariodawson] (July 11, 2017). "Wish I could be there!Excited for the people of Maryland to get to vote for @BenJealous for Governor! What a benefi..." (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  92. ^ Konst 🌹, Nomiki (February 14, 2017). "We will be there covering this live for @TYTPolitics. Come support!https://twitter.com/benjealous/status/831395309846671360 ..."
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Official campaign websites


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