2016 United States Senate election in Florida

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See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

2016 United States Senate election in Florida
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Nominee Marco Rubio Patrick Murphy
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,835,191 4,122,088
Percentage 51.98% 44.31%
Rubio:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Murphy:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Marco Rubio
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Marco Rubio
Republican

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Florida was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Florida, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections for both the Republicans and Democrats took place on August 30, 2016.[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio ran for another term but faced well-funded Republican primary opposition after initially announcing he would not seek re-election to his Senate seat. He had openly considered whether to seek re-election or run for president in 2016.[2][3][4] He stated in April 2014 that he would not run for both the Senate and president in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from simultaneously appearing twice on a ballot, but did not rule out running for either office.[5]

However, in April 2015, Rubio announced that he was running for President and would not seek re-election.[6][7][8][9] Rubio had initially said he would not run for re-election to the Senate even if he dropped out of the GOP presidential primary before he would have to qualify for the 2016 Senate primary ballot, for which the filing deadline was June 24, 2016.[10][11]

On June 13, 2016, despite his previous statements that he would not run for re-election to his Senate seat, Rubio "seemed to open the door to running for re-election," citing the previous day's mass shooting in Orlando and how "it really gives you pause, to think a little bit about your service to your country and where you can be most useful to your country."[12] On June 22, 2016, Rubio announced that he would seek re-election to the Senate, reversing his pledge not to run.[13]

On August 30, the Republican Party nominated Marco Rubio, and the Democratic Party nominated Representative Patrick Murphy. Rubio won with the largest raw vote total in Florida history (until Donald Trump broke the record in 2020), taking a greater percentage of the popular vote than Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who won the state in the election. He is the first Republican Senator from Florida since 1994, and only the second with Connie Mack, to be reelected to a second term. Also, with Mel Martinez's victory in 2004, this marks the first time that Republicans have won one of Florida's Senate seats three times in a row (Mack succeeded Lawton Chiles, a Democrat, and was succeeded by another Democrat, Bill Nelson).

Marco Rubio won 48% of the Hispanic vote and 17% of the African American vote during this election, an exceptional number for a Republican during a presidential year.[14] Additionally, Rubio's raw vote total was the highest vote total for any Republican Senate candidate up until Texas Senator John Cornyn broke it in 2020.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Ron DeSantis (withdrew)
Individuals
Organizations
David Jolly (withdrew)
Individuals
Carlos López-Cantera (withdrew)
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal leaders
Marco Rubio
Presidents of the United States
Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Statewide officials
Newspaper Editorial Boards
Declined to endorse

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Carlos
Beruff 		Ron
DeSantis 		David
Jolly 		Ilya
Katz 		Carlos
López-Cantera 		Marco
Rubio 		Todd
Wilcox 		Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Archived September 16, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 22–24, 2016 400 ± 5% 22% — — — — 61% — 15%
Florida Atlantic University August 19–22, 2016 327 ± 5.4% 8% — — — — 69% 5% 15%
Florida Chamber of Commerce August 17–22, 2016 249 ± 4.0% 19% — — — — 68% — 10%
St. Leo University August 14–18, 2016 479 ± 4.5% 14% — — — — 68% — 18%
Suffolk University Archived August 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 1–3, 2016 183 ± 4.4% 12% – – – – 62% – 26%
St. Pete Polls August 2, 2016 1,835 ± 2.3% 22% – – – – 55% – 23%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA June 25–27, 2016 555 ± 4.1% 11% – – – – 63% – 13%
Vox Populi Polling (R) June 19–20, 2016 487 ± 4.4% 5% – – – – 57% 4% 34%
St. Leo University June 10–16, 2016 500 ± 7% 4% 5% 4% 1% 3% 52% 2% 27%
8% 8% 8% 2% 9% – 5% 57%
Mason-Dixon Archived August 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine May 31–June 2, 2016 400 ± 5% 17% 10% 13% – 9% – 2% 49%
News 13/Bay News 9 March 4–6, 2016 724 ± 3.7% 1% 11% 18% 4% 9% – 7% 50%
Washington Post/Univision March 2–5, 2016 450 ± 5.5% 0% 6% 5% – 6% – 2% 81%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 464 ± 4.6% – 14% 26% – 11% – 2% 47%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business January 15–18, 2016 345 ± 5.2% – 8% 28% – 8% – – 57%
St. Pete Polls/Saint Petersblog December 14–15, 2015 2,694 ± 1.9% – 18% 21% – 10% – 8% 44%
St. Leo University November 29 – December 3, 2015 147 ± 8% – 6% 12% 4% 8% – 7% 63%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 377 ± 5.1% – 15% 18% – 14% – – 52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Vern
Buchanan 		Ben
Carson 		Ron
DeSantis 		Don
Gaetz 		David
Jolly 		George
LeMieux 		Carlos
López-Cantera 		Bill
McCollum 		Jeff
Miller 		Tom
Rooney 		Todd
Wilcox 		Other/
Undecided
News 13/Bay News 9 March 4–6, 2016 724 ± 3.7% – 56% – – – – – – – – – 44%
Mason-Dixon July 20–24, 2015 500 ± 4.5% – – 8% – 11% – 7% 22% 6% – 1% 45%
– – 9% – 16% – 10% – 8% – 2% 55%
St. Pete Polls July 15, 2015 1,074 ± 3.0% – — 9% — 22% — 11% — 12% — – 46%
Gravis Marketing June 16—20, 2015 729 ± 3.6% – — 16% — — — 7% 25% 6% — – 46%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 425 ± 4.5% – — 6% 4% 6% 3% 7% 16% 8% — – 43%
Mason-Dixon Archived May 20, 2015, at the Wayback Machine Apr. 14–16, 2015 425 ± 4.8% 7% – 4% 1% 8% 3% 4% 20% — 5% – 48%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Atwater 		Pam
Bondi 		Carlos
López-Cantera 		Adam
Putnam 		Allen
West 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 425 ± 4.8% 12% 25% 8% — 38% 18%
41% — 15% — — 43%
Gravis Marketing February 24–25, 2015 513 ± 4% 9% 36% — 12% — 43%
Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014 818 ± 3.4% 17% 38% — 16% — 29%

Results

Republican primary results[123]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Marco Rubio (incumbent) 1,029,830 71.99%
Republican Carlos Beruff 264,427 18.49%
Republican Dwight Young 91,082 6.37%
Republican Ernie Rivera 45,153 3.16%
Total votes 1,430,492 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Lateresa Jones, life coach and independent candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014 (running as an Independent)[130][131]

Declined

Endorsements

Alan Grayson
Politicians
Activists
Labor unions
Organizations
Pam Keith
Newspaper Editorial Boards
Patrick Murphy
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet Members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal leaders
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspaper Editorial Boards

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Alan
Grayson 		Pam
Keith 		Lateresa
Jones 		Patrick
Murphy 		Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Archived September 16, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 22–24, 2016 400 ± 5% 22% 4% — 55% 19%
Florida Atlantic University August 19–22, 2016 364 8% 7% — 54% 22%
Florida Chamber of Commerce August 17–22, 2016 258 ± 4.0% 11% — — 40% 38%
St. Leo University August 14–18, 2016 532 ± 4.5% 17% 8% — 48% 27%
Suffolk University Archived August 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 1–3, 2016 194 ± 4.4% 17% 2% – 36% 45%
St. Pete Polls August 2, 2016 1,807 ± 2.3% 20% 7% – 45% 28%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA June 25–27, 2016 618 ± 4.0% 21% 10% – 30% 35%
Vox Populi Polling (R) June 19–20, 2016 530 ± 4.3% 15% 5% – 19% 62%
Targeted Persuasion June 14–16, 2016 862 ± 3.34% 30% 5% – 27% 38%
St. Leo University June 10–16, 2016 500 ± 7% 14% 3% 4% 16% 61%
Mason-Dixon Archived August 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine May 31–June 2, 2016 400 ± 5% 23% 3% – 31% 43%
Public Policy Polling Archived April 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine March 22–23, 2016 829 ? 33% – – 32% 35%
St. Leo University March 13–17, 2016 540 ± 5% 17% – – 20% 63%
Mason-Dixon[permanent dead link] March 7–9, 2016 500 ± 4.5% 19% – – 33% 48%
SurveyUSA March 4–6, 2016 592 ± 4.1% 16% 11% – 27% 46%
Bendixon & Amandi/The Tarrance Group March 2–5, 2016 449 ± 6% 19% – – 27% 54%
Univision March 2–5, 2016 449 ± 6% 29% – – 36% 35%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 388 ± 5% 33% – – 22% 45%
20/20 Insight LLC* Archived February 28, 2016, at the Wayback Machine ~February 16–18, 2016 646 ± 3.9% 41% – – 32% 27%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business January 15–18, 2016 371 ± 5% 27% – – 20% 53%
St. Leo University November 29–December 3, 2015 160 ± 7.5% 7% 4% 6% 17% 55%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 368 ± 5.1% 33% – – 27% 39%
Mason-Dixon July 20–24, 2015 500 ± 4.5% 24% – – 26% 50%
33% – – 32% 35%
St. Pete Polls July 15, 2015 1,018 ± 3.1% 30% 8% – 23% 39%
Gravis Marketing June 16–20, 2015 881 ± 3.3% 63% – – 19% 18%
Vox Populi Polling (R)[permanent dead link] June 15–17, 2015 717 ± 3.7% 24% – – 34% 42%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 24% — – 27% 49%
Mason-Dixon April 14–16, 2015 400 ± 5% 14% – – 23% 63%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 371 ± 5.1% 22% – – 21% 56%
  • * Internal poll for Alan Grayson

Results

County results
Democratic primary results[123]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Patrick Murphy 665,985 58.92%
Democratic Alan Grayson 199,929 17.72%
Democratic Pam Keith 173,919 15.40%
Democratic Rocky De La Fuente 60,810 5.38%
Democratic Reginald Luster 29,138 2.58%
Total votes 1,129,781 100.00%

Libertarian primary

On October 1, 2015, Adrian Wyllie and Lynn House, chair and vice chair, respectively, of the Libertarian Party of Florida, resigned their seats in protest after the executive committee refused to oust candidate Augustus Invictus from the party. According to Wyllie, Invictus had defended eugenics, called for a new Civil War, and brutally slaughtered a goat, and is not representative of the Libertarian Party. Invictus has refuted these claims, calling Wyllie's accusations, "deliberate misrepresentation[s]."[191]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Paul Stanton
Individuals
Libertarian Party of Florida Affiliates
Organizations
  • Eastern Liberty Alliance PAC[195]
  • Ninjas for Liberty PAC[195]
Augustus Sol Invictus
Individuals
  • Keon A. Grayson, North Central, Miami-Dade County Community Councilman[206]
  • Steve Scheetz, former Chair of the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party[207]
  • Bill Wohlsifer, former candidate for Florida Attorney General[208]

Results

2016 United States Senate Libertarian primary in Florida by county
Map legend
  •   Stanton—50-60%
  •   Stanton—60-70%
  •   Stanton—70-80%
  •   Stanton—80-90%
  •   Stanton—>90%
  •   Invictus—50-60%
  •   Tie—50%
  •   No votes
Libertarian primary results[123]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Paul Stanton 2,946 73.48%
Libertarian Augustus Sol Invictus 1,063 26.52%
Total votes 4,009 100.00%

Independent

Candidates

Declared

No party affiliation

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Dates Location Rubio Murphy Stanton Link
October 17, 2016 Orlando, Florida Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate - C-SPAN
October 26, 2016 Davie, Florida Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[216] Lean R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[217] Lean R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[218] Lean R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[219] Lean R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[220] Tossup November 7, 2016

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Paul
Stanton (L) 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 4,092 ± 4.6% 48% 49% — — 3%
Quinnipiac University Archived November 7, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 3–6, 2016 884 ± 3.3% 50% 43% — 2% 5%
Alliance/ESA Poll Archived October 22, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 2–6, 2016 875 ± 4.2% 51% 40% — — 9%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 3,574 ± 4.6% 48% 49% — — 3%
CBS News/YouGov November 2–4, 2016 1,188 ± 3.6% 47% 44% — 3% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 3,356 ± 4.6% 49% 49% — — 2%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing November 1–2, 2016 1,220 ± 2.8% 47% 46% — — 7%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy November 1–2, 2016 603 ± 4.0% 50% 46% — — 4%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 2,901 ± 4.6% 49% 48% — — 3%
CNN/ORC October 27–November 1, 2016 773 LV ± 3.5% 49% 48% — — 2%
884 RV 50% 47% — — 3%
Quinnipiac University Archived November 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 27–November 1, 2016 626 ± 3.9% 50% 44% — 1% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 2,715 ± 4.6% 49% 47% — — 4%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 2,809 ± 4.6% 49% 47% — — 4%
TargetSmart/William & Mary October 25–28, 2016 718 ± 3.4% 49% 43% — 7% 1%
Emerson College October 26–27, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 49% 47% — 3% 1%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 25–27, 2016 814 ± 3.4% 51% 42% — — 5%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 25–26, 2016 1,301 ± 2.7% 46% 46% — — 8%
Public Policy Polling October 25–26, 2016 742 ± 3.6% 46% 46% — — 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 25–26, 2016 779 LV ± 3.5% 51% 43% — 4% 2%
990 RV ± 3.1% 50% 42% — 4% 3%
St. Leo University October 22–26, 2016 1,028 ± 3.0% 44% 39% — — 17%
University of North Florida October 20–25, 2016 836 ± 3.6% 49% 43% — — 8%
Bloomberg/Selzer October 21–24, 2016 953 ± 3.2% 51% 41% — — 8%
Florida Atlantic University October 21–23, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 46% 42% — — 12%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA October 20–24, 2016 1,251 ± 2.8% 45% 41% — 6% 8%
CBS News/YouGov October 20–21, 2016 1,042 ± 3.6% 44% 42% — 6% 8%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy October 20, 2016 538 ± 4.2% 46% 46% — — 8%
Google Consumer Surveys October 18–20, 2016 500 ± 4.2% 57% 38% — — 5%
Associated Industries of Florida October 19, 2016 1,000 ± 3.1% 43% 38% — 8% 11%
Florida Chamber of Commerce October 16–19, 2016 507 ± 4.4% 51% 37% — 1% 11%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid Archived October 22, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 17–18, 2016 892 ± 3.0% 45% 44% — — 11%
Quinnipiac University Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 10–16, 2016 660 ± 3.8% 49% 47% — — 4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 8–16, 2016 1,702 ± 0.5% 51% 45% — — 4%

Public Policy Polling

October 12–13, 2016 985 ± 3.1% 44% 38% 6% — 12%
48% 43% — — 9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 11–13, 2016 1,799 ± 2.3% 44% 36% — — 20%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy October 10–11, 2016 533 ± 4.2% 48% 44% — — 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 3–5, 2016 700 ± 3.7% 48% 46% — 2% 4%
Associated Industries of Florida October 2–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 49% 41% — 1% 9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 4, 2016 821 ± 3.4% 44% 40% — — 16%
Emerson College October 2–4, 2016 600 ± 3.6% 47% 39% — 6% 8%
University of North Florida Archived October 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 27–October 4, 2016 667 ± 3.8% 48% 41% — 1% 10%
Quinnipiac University Archived October 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 27–October 2, 2016 545 ± 4.2% 48% 44% — — 8%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy September 28–29, 2016 619 ± 4.0% 47% 43% — — 10%
Mason-Dixon Archived October 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 27–29, 2016 820 ± 3.5% 47% 40% 5% 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling September 27–28, 2016 826 ± 3.4% 42% 35% 9% — 15%
47% 44% — — 9%
Suffolk University Archived September 23, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 19–21, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 43% 34% 2% 4% 17%
Florida Chamber of Commerce September 15–20, 2016 617 ± 4.0% 46% 42% — — 11%
Monmouth University September 16–19, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% — 3% 5%
Saint Leo University September 10–16, 2016 502 ± 4.5% 44% 35% — — 21%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College September 10–14, 2016 867 ± 3.3% 48% 42% — — 8%
CNN/ORC September 7–12, 2016 788 LV ± 3.0% 54% 43% — 1% 2%
886 RV 51% 45% — 1% 4%
Global Strategy Group September 6–11, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 47% 45% — — 8%
JMC Analytics (R) September 7–8, 2016 781 ± 3.5% 43% 38% — 4% 15%
Quinnipiac University Archived September 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 31–September 7, 2016 601 ± 4.0% 50% 43% — 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling September 4–6, 2016 744 ± 3.6% 40% 37% 10% — 13%
Mason-Dixon Archived September 16, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 22–24, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 46% 43% — — 11%
iCitizen August 18–24, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 43% 42% — — 16%
Florida Atlantic University August 19–22, 2016 1,200 ± 2.7% 44% 39% — — 17%
St. Leo University August 14–18, 2016 1,380 ± 3.0% 46% 38% — — 16%
Monmouth University August 12–15, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 48% 43% — 3% 5%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy August 10, 2016 622 ± 4.0% 45% 43% — — 12%
Civis Analytics August 9–15, 2016 1,436 ± 2.8% 44% 45% — — 9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 4–10, 2016 862 ± 3.3% 49% 43% — 3% 5%
Public Policy Polling Archived August 11, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 5–7, 2016 938 ± 3.2% 42% 40% — — 18%
Quinnipiac University Archived August 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine July 30–August 7, 2016 1,056 ± 3.0% 48% 45% — — 7%
Suffolk University Archived August 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 1–3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 46% 33% — — 21%
JMC Analytics (R) July 9–10, 2016 700 ± 3.7% 40% 33% — 5% 21%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–11, 2016 871 ± 3.3% 47% 44% — 2% 7%
Quinnipiac University Archived August 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 30–July 11, 2016 1,015 ± 3.1% 50% 37% — 1% 8%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA June 25–27, 2016 1,678 ± 2.4% 43% 43% — 7% 8%
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 47% 40% — — 13%
Public Policy Polling June 15–16, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 41% 42% — — 17%
Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 43% 44% — — 13%
Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5.0% 49% 41% — — 10%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 46% 40% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 48% 41% — — 11%
Mason-Dixon March 3–5, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 50% 38% — — 12%
Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014 818 ± 3.4% 46% 41% — — 12%
Hypothetical polling
with Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 33% 41% 1% 24%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 38% 36% — 26%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 34% 40% — 26%
Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 31% 37% 1% 26%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 37% 36% — 28%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 32% 38% 1% 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 32% 42% 1% 25%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 35% 36% — 29%
Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5% 28% 40% — 32%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 31% 43% — 26%
Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 30% 37% 1% 29%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 35% 40% — 25%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 31% 39% 1% 29%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 14% 33% — 53%
with David Jolly
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		David
Jolly (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 34% 41% 1% 24%
Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 33% 40% — 27%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 37% 35% — 28%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 38% 35% — 26%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 39% 36% — 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		David
Jolly (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 34% 41% 1% 25%
Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 29% 44% — 27%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 34% 37% — 29%
Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5% 33% 40% — 27%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 34% 38% — 27%
Democracy Corps October 24–28, 2015 400 ± 4.9% 44% 43% — 13%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 35% 40% — 25%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 14% 35% — 52%
with Carlos Lopez-Cantera
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Carlos
López-Cantera (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 35% 40% 1% 24%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 37% 37% — 26%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 35% 38% — 26%
Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 32% 35% 1% 27%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 34% 41% — 24%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 31% 37% 1% 31%
Quinnipiac University Archived April 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine March 17–28, 2015 1,087 ± 3% 33% 32% 1% 34%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 36% 40% — 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Carlos
López-Cantera (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 32% 41% 1% 26%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 34% 38% — 28%
Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5% 31% 42% — 27%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 31% 40% — 29%
Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 29% 37% 1% 30%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 35% 41% — 24%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 28% 40% 1% 32%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 15% 30% — 56%
Quinnipiac University Archived April 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine March 17–28, 2015 1,087 ± 3% 31% 35% 1% 33%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 34% 41% — 25%
with Jeff Atwater
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Atwater (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived April 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine March 17–28, 2015 1,087 ± 3% 42% 32% 1% 25%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 41% 40% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Atwater (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived April 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine March 17–28, 2015 1,087 ± 3% 38% 34% 1% 27%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 41% 39% — 20%
Mason-Dixon March 3–5, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 46% 32% — 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Atwater (R) 		Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon March 3–5, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 45% 35% 20%
with Pam Bondi
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Pam
Bondi (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 45% 42% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Pam
Bondi (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 45% 41% 14%
with Don Gaetz
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Don
Gaetz (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Undecided
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 9% 36% 55%
with Jeff Miller
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Miller (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Undecided
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 15% 34% 52%
with Marco Rubio
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Alex
Sink (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013 579 ± 4.1% 45% 42% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon March 3–5, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 53% 36% 11%
Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014 818 ± 3.4% 47% 43% 9%
Public Policy Polling June 6–9, 2014 672 ± 3.8% 48% 40% 12%
Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013 579 ± 4.1% 46% 43% 11%
with Allen West
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Allen
West (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 39% 42% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Allen
West (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 39% 41% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Allen
West (R) 		Alex
Sink (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013 579 ± 4.1% 38% 44% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Allen
West (R) 		Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 6–9, 2014 672 ± 3.8% 41% 40% 19%
Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013 579 ± 4.1% 40% 44% 16%
with Todd Wilcox
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Todd
Wilcox (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 34% 39% 2% 24%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 37% 35% — 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Todd
Wilcox (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 31% 41% 1% 26%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 33% 38% — 27%
with Carlos Beruff
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Carlos
Beruff (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived August 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine July 30–August 7, 2016 1,056 ± 3.0% 39% 43% 1% 17%
Quinnipiac University Archived August 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 30–July 11, 2016 1,015 ± 3.1% 38% 38% 1% 19%
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 33% 40% 1% 25%
Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 32% 41% — 28%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 35% 36% — 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Carlos
Beruff (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived August 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine July 30–August 7, 2016 1,056 ± 3.0% 34% 48% 1% 17%
Quinnipiac University Archived August 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 30–July 11, 2016 1,015 ± 3.1% 34% 40% 1% 19%
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 31% 43% 1% 26%
Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 31% 43% — 27%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 32% 38% — 29%
Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5.0% 31% 39% — 30%
with Alan Grayson
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
iCitizen August 18–24, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 39% — 16%
St. Leo University August 14–18, 2016 1,380 ± 3.0% 47% 34% — 19%
Monmouth University August 12–15, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 50% 39% 5% 6%
Quinnipiac University Archived August 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine July 30–August 7, 2016 1,056 ± 3.0% 49% 43% 1% 8%
Suffolk University Archived August 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 1–3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 45% 31% — 24%
JMC Analytics (R) July 9–10, 2016 700 ± 3.7% 41% 33% 4% 22%
Quinnipiac University Archived August 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 30–July 11, 2016 1,015 ± 3.1% 50% 38% 1% 8%
Quinnipiac University[permanent dead link] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 50% 38% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling June 15–16, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 42% 40% — 17%
Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 43% 38% — 19%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 48% 38% — 14%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 49% 40% — 11%

Results

United States Senate election in Florida, 2016 [221]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Marco Rubio (incumbent) 4,835,191 51.98% +3.09%
Democratic Patrick Murphy 4,122,088 44.31% +24.11%
Libertarian Paul Stanton 196,956 2.12% +1.66%
Independent Bruce Nathan 52,451 0.56% N/A
Independent Tony Khoury 45,820 0.49% N/A
Independent Steven Machat 26,918 0.29% N/A
Independent Basil E. Dalack 22,236 0.24% N/A
Write-in 160 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 9,301,820 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Counties that from Independent to Republican

See also

References

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External links

Official campaign websites
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