File:Covid-19 VOC-202012-01 odds ratio curves by UK region.png

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Summary

Description
English: The odds ratio (left y axis) of B.1.1.7 versus 'wild' variants is expected to grow exponentially; [0.076] means 7.9% growth per day. Dataset dates are publication dates.

'seq' for data from genomic sequnecing; 'SGTF' for PCR-based data (S-Gene Target Failure; less accurate than sequencing). To convert the log slope s to ratios of R values: exp(s*Tg) with Tg the generation interval (usually assumed 4–6 days). The SGTF data is based on population sampling; shifted by 14 days to estimate the day of symptom onset. A background positive rate is subtracted for the 2021-01-15 data.

Data sources: UK national (2021-01-21)[1]; South-East England (2020-12-31)[2]; UK countries (2021-01-29)[3]; England regions (2021-01-15)[4]
Date
Source Own work
Author Hankwang

References

  1. ↑ Risk related to the spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the EU/EEA – first update. ecdc.europa.eu European center for disease prevention and Control (ECDC). Retrieved on 6 February 2021.
  2. ↑ (4 January 2021). "Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: Insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data" (preprint). (No journal). DOI:10.1101/2020.12.30.20249034.
  3. ↑ Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 29 January 2021: 10. Positive tests that are compatible with the new UK variant. www.ons.gov.uk (2021-01-29). Retrieved on 1 February 2021.
  4. ↑ Walker, A. Sarah (2021-01-15). Increased infections, but not viral burden, with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Retrieved on 1 February 2021.

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Covid-19 Variant of Concern 202012/01 odds ratio curves by UK region

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6 February 2021

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