2010 California gubernatorial election

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2010 California gubernatorial election

← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →
Turnout59.59%[1] Increase26.82pp
 
Nominee Jerry Brown Meg Whitman
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 5,428,149 4,127,391
Percentage 53.8% 40.9%

County results
Brown:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Whitman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election

Arnold Schwarzenegger
Republican

Elected Governor

Jerry Brown
Democratic

The 2010 California gubernatorial election was held November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of California. The primary elections were held on June 8, 2010. Because constitutional office holders in California have been prohibited from serving more than two terms in the same office since November 6, 1990, incumbent Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger was term-limited and thus was ineligible to run for re-election to a third term. Former Governor Jerry Brown, to whom the term limits did not apply due to a grandfather clause, defeated Meg Whitman in the general election and was sworn into office on January 3, 2011. As of 2023, this is the last time the Governor’s office in California changed partisan control.

Republican primary

Republican nominee Meg Whitman campaigning

Candidates

Polling

Poll source Date(s) administered Tom
Campbell*
Meg
Whitman
Steve
Poizner
Peter
Foy*
Capitol Weekly/Probolsky January 5–22, 2009 15% 14% 4% 1%
The Field Poll February 20 – March 1, 2009 18% 21% 7%
Capitol Weekly/Probolsky May 25, 2009 13% 10% 8% 1%
Research 2000 August 9, 2009 19% 24% 9%
The Field Poll September 18 – October 5, 2009 20% 22% 9%
USC/Los Angeles Times October 27 – November 3, 2009 27% 35% 10%
Public Policy Institute of California December 16, 2009 12% 32% 8%
The Field Poll January 5–17, 2010 45% 17%
22% 36% 9%
Public Policy Institute of California January 27, 2010 41% 11%
Research 2000 March 10, 2010 52% 19%
The Field Poll March 17, 2010 63% 14%
Public Policy Institute of California March 24, 2010 61% 11%
USC/Los Angeles Times March 23–30, 2010 60% 20%
Survey USA April 19–21, 2010 49% 27%
Survey USA May 6–9, 2010 39% 37%
Research 2000 May 17–19, 2010 46% 36%
Public Policy Institute of California May 19, 2010 38% 29%
Public Policy Polling May 21–23, 2010 51% 26%
USC/Los Angeles Times May 19–26, 2010 53% 29%
Survey USA June 3–6, 2010 59% 30%

Results

Results by county:
  Whitman—70–80%
  Whitman—60–70%
  Whitman—50–60%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Meg Whitman 1,529,534 64.4
Republican Steve Poizner 632,940 26.7
Republican Lawrence Naritelli 54,202 2.3
Republican Robert Newman 38,462 1.7
Republican Ken Miller 36,609 1.5
Republican Bill Chambers 34,243 1.4
Republican Douglas Hughes 26,085 1.0
Republican David Tully-Smith 24,978 1.0
Republican Steven Paul Mozena (write-in) 26 0.0
Total votes 2,377,079 100.0

Democratic primary

Democratic nominee Jerry Brown campaigning

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Dianne
Feinstein*
Jerry
Brown
Antonio
Villaraigosa*
Gavin
Newsom*
John
Garamendi*
Jack
O'Connell*
Steve
Westly*
Bill
Lockyer*
Capitol Weekly/Probolsky January 22–25, 2009 36% 14% 9% 9% 4% 3% 1% ––
Lake Research Partners February 17–19, 2009 –– 27% 20% 14% 8% 1% 3% ––
The Field Poll February 20 – March 1, 2009 38% 16% 16% 10% 4% 1% 2% 1%
–– 26% 22% 16% 8% 2% 2% 2%
Tulchin Poll April 23, 2009 –– 31% 12% 16% 11% 6% –– ––
Capital Weekly May 25, 2009 –– 24% 15% 16% 7% 5% 3% ––
J. Moore June 20, 2009 –– 47% –– 26% –– –– –– ––
Research 2000 June 10–16, 2009 –– 29% –– 20% –– –– –– ––
40% 27% –– 16% –– –– –– ––
The Field Poll September 18 – October 5, 2009 –– 47% –– 27% –– –– –– ––

Results

Results by county:
  Brown—>90%
  Brown—80-90%
  Brown—70-80%
  Brown—60-70%
  Brown—50-60%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jerry Brown 2,021,189 84.4
Democratic Richard Aguirre 95,596 4.0
Democratic Charles Pineda 94,669 4.0
Democratic Vibert Greene 54,225 2.3
Democratic Joe Symmon 54,122 2.3
Democratic Lowell Darling 39,930 1.6
Democratic Peter Schurman 35,450 1.4
Democratic Nadia B. Smalley (write-in) 106 0.0
Total votes 2,395,287 100.0

American Independent primary

Candidates

  • Chelene Nightingale, business owner
  • Markham Robinson, owner of a software firm

Results

California American Independent gubernatorial primary, 2010
Candidate Votes %
Chelene Nightingale 24,000 58.1
Markham Robinson 17,327 41.9
Total votes 41,327 100
Voter turnout 10.4%

Green primary

Candidates

  • S. Deacon Alexander, student
  • Laura Wells, financial systems consultant

Results

California Green gubernatorial primary, 2010
Candidate Votes %
Laura Wells 17,548 79.5
Deacon Alexander 4,533 20.5
Total votes 22,081 100
Voter turnout 19.6%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

  • Jordan Llamas, Doctor of Psychology and Political Science
  • Dale Ogden, business consultant and actuary

Results

California Libertarian gubernatorial primary, 2010
Candidate Votes %
Dale Ogden 17,477 100
Voter turnout 20.2%

Peace and Freedom primary

Candidates

Results

Results by county:
  Alvarez
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  •   100%
  Alexander
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   100%
  Tie
  •   30-40%
  •   50%
  No Vote
California Peace and Freedom gubernatorial primary, 2010
Candidate Votes %
Carlos Alvarez 1,906 45.3
Stewart Alexander 1,693 40.2
Mohammad Arif 613 14.5
Total votes 4,212 100
Voter turnout 7.4%

General election

Campaign

Brown's campaign logo
Whitman's campaign logo

Both Whitman and Brown were criticized for negative campaigning during the election.[5] During their final debate at the 2010 Women's Conference a week before the election, moderator Matt Lauer asked both candidates to pull attack ads for the rest of the election, which elicited loud cheers from the audience.[5] Brown agreed and picked one ad each of his and Whitman's that he thought, if Whitman would agree, should be the only ones run, but Whitman, who had been loudly cheered earlier as the prospective first woman governor of the state, was booed when she stated that she would keep "the ads that talk about where Gov. Brown stands on the issues."[6]

The Los Angeles Times reported that nearly $250 million was spent on the Governor's race.[7] At least two spending records were broken during the campaign. Whitman broke personal spending records by spending $140 million of her own money on the campaign,[8] and independent expenditures exceeded $31.7 million, with almost $25 million of that spent in support of Brown.[9]

In an interview with CNN, the reporter opined that Whitman was hurt most during the campaign by a matter involving Nicky Diaz, her former Mexican maid, whom Whitman fired after Diaz asked for help as she was an illegal immigrant.[8]

Candidates' stances on issues

Republican supporter holds a sign criticizing Brown and other Democrats on jobs.

Jobs: Meg Whitman[10]
1. Eliminate small business start-up tax ($800 fee for new business start-ups)
2. Eliminate factory tax
3. Increase R&D tax credit (increase from 15% to 20%)
4. Promote investments in agriculture
5. Eliminate the state tax on capital gains

Registered nurses demonstrate their union support of Brown (and US Senate candidate Barbara Boxer).

Jerry Brown[11]
1. Stimulate clean energy jobs (build 12,000MW of localized electricity generation; build 8,000MW of large-scale renewables; appoint a Clean Energy Czar)
2. Invest in infrastructure/construction jobs (federal dollars for projects; prioritize water needs; high-speed rail; strengthen the port system; prioritize use of existing funds for job creation; infill development
3. Create strike team to focus on job retention
4. Cut regulations (speed up regulatory processes and eliminate duplicative functions; develop CEQA guidelines; fully utilize administrative law; update outdated technology systems
5. Increase manufacturing jobs
6. Deliver targeted workforce training programs
7. Invest in education

Education: Meg Whitman[12]
1. Direct more money to classroom
2. Reward outstanding teachers
3. Eliminate cap on charter schools
4. Grade public schools A-F
5. Establish fast-track parent process for charter school conversions
6. Invest $1 billion in UC and CSU University systems
7. Utilize alternative paths to the classroom to attract high quality teachers

Jerry Brown[13]
1. Higher education (create new state master plan; focus on community colleges and transfer credits)
2. Overhaul state testing program
3. Change school funding formulas and consolidate the 62 existing categorical programs
4. Teacher recruitment and training
5. Simplify the Education Code and return more decision-making to local school districts
6. A more balanced and creative school curriculum (science, history, and humanities; experiment with online, etc.)
7. Place special emphasis on teaching science, technology, engineering, and math
8. Increase proficiency in English
9. Improve high school graduation rates
10. Charter schools
11. Magnet or theme schools
12. Citizenship and character

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[14] Tossup October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[15] Lean D (flip) October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[16] Lean D (flip) November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Lean D (flip) October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[18] Lean D (flip) October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jerry
Brown (D)
Meg
Whitman (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports January 14, 2009 500 ±4.5% 40% 38% –– ––
Research 2000 August 9, 2009 600 ±4.0% 42% 36% –– ––
Rasmussen Reports September 24, 2009 500 ±4.5% 44% 35% 3% 18%
The Field Poll Sept. 15–Oct. 5, 2009 1,005 ±3.2% 50% 29% –– 21%
Rasmussen Reports November 17, 2009 500 ±4.5% 41% 41% 3% 14%
Public Policy Institute of California December 16, 2009 2,004 ±2.0% 43% 37% –– 20%
The Field Poll January 5–17, 2010 958 ±3.3% 46% 36% –– 18%
Rasmussen Reports January 19, 2010 500 ±4.5% 43% 39% 7% 11%
Public Policy Institute of California January 27, 2010 2,001 ±2.0% 41% 36% –– 23%
Rasmussen Reports February 15, 2010 500 ±4.5% 43% 43% 6% 8%
Research 2000 March 10, 2010 600 ±4.0% 45% 41% –– 14%
Rasmussen Reports March 15, 2010 500 ±4.5% 40% 40% 6% 14%
The Field Poll March 17, 2010 748 ±3.7% 43% 46% –– 11%
Public Policy Institute of California March 24, 2010 2,002 ±2.0% 39% 44% –– 17%
USC/Los Angeles Times March 23–30, 2010 –– –– 41% 44% –– ––
Rasmussen Reports April 19, 2010 500 ±4.5% 44% 38% 9% 9%
Public Policy Institute of California May 9–16, 2010 2,003 ±2.0% 42% 37% –– 21%
Research 2000 May 17–19, 2010 600 ±4.0% 46% 42% –– 18%
Public Policy Polling May 21–23, 2010 921 ±3.2% 48% 36% –– 16%
Rasmussen Reports May 24, 2010 500 ±4.5% 45% 41% 8% 7%
USC/Los Angeles Times May 19–26, 2010 –– –– 44% 38% –– ––
Rasmussen Reports June 9, 2010 500 ±4.5% 45% 44% 4% 7%
Reuters June 30, 2010 600 ±4.5% 45% 39% 3% 14%
The Field Poll June 22-July 5, 2010 1,005 ±3.2% 44% 43% –– 13%
Survey USA July 8–11, 2010 614 ±4.0% 39% 46% 7% 8%
Rasmussen Reports July 12, 2010 500 ±4.5% 46% 47% 4% 3%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 614 ±3.95% 46% 40% –– 14%
Rasmussen Reports August 3, 2010 750 ±4.0% 43% 41% 6% 10%
Survey USA August 9–11, 2010 602 ± 4.1% 43% 44% 13%
Rasmussen Reports August 24, 2010 750 ±4.0% 40% 48% 6% 6%
Survey USA August 31-September 1, 2010 569 ±4.2% 40% 47% 9% 4%
Rasmussen Reports September 6, 2010 750 ±4.0% 45% 48% 3% 4%
CNN September 2–7, 2010 866 ± 3.5% 46% 48%
FOX News September 11, 2010 1,000 ± 3% 43% 49% 4% 4%
Public Policy Polling September 14–16, 2010 630 ±3.9% 47% 42% –– 12%
Field Poll September 14–21, 2010 599 ±4.1% 41% 41% –– 18%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research September 18, 2010 1,000 ±3.0% 45% 45% 4% 6%
Rasmussen Reports September 20, 2010 750 ±4.0% 47% 46% 4% 3%
Survey USA September 19–21, 2010 610 ±4.0% 46% 43% 8% 3%
The Los Angeles Times/USC September 15–22, 2010 1,500 ±3.3% 49% 44% -- --
PPIC September 19–26, 2010 1,104 ±3% 37% 38% 7% 18%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation September 24–28, 2010 786 ±3.5% 52% 43% 5% 3%
Rasmussen Reports October 3, 2010 750 ±4.0% 49% 44% 4% 4%
Reuters/Ipsos October 4, 2010 600 ±4% 50% 43%
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 6, 2010 501 ±4.5% 53% 41% 6%
Rasmussen Reports October 13, 2010 750 ±4.0% 50% 44% 2% 4%
Los Angeles Times/USC October 13–20, 2010 1,501 ±2.5% 52% 39% 3% 6%
Reuters (report) October 12–14, 2010 601 ± 4.0% 48% 44% 3% 6%
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen October 16, 2010 1,000 ±3% 48% 43% 4% 4%
PPIC October 10–17, 2010 1,067 ±3.1% 44% 36% 4% 16%
SurveyUSA October 15–18, 2010 621 ±4% 47% 40% 8% 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 21, 2010 750 ±4% 48% 42% 4% 6%
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen October 23, 2010 1,000 ±3% 50% 41% 6% 3%
Suffolk University Archived 2010-11-28 at the Wayback Machine October 21–24, 2010 600 ±4% 50% 42% 5% 3%
CNN/Time October 20–26, 2010 888 ±3.5% 51% 44% 2% 2%
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2010 750 ±4% 49% 45% 2% 3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 28–29, 2010 486 ±4.5% 49% 44% 7%
Survey USA October 26–31, 2010 587 ± 4% 48% 37% 6% 9%
Public Policy Polling Reports) October 29–31, 2010 882 ± 3.3% 51% 46% 3%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Dates administered Steve
Poizner (R)
Jerry
Brown (D)
Rasmussen Reports May 24, 2010 42% 43%
Public Policy Polling May 21–23, 2010 32% 48%
Research 2000 May 17–19, 2010 37% 47%
PPIC May 2010 32% 45%
Rasmussen Reports April 19, 2010 32% 50%
PPIC March 24, 2010 31% 46%
Rasmussen Reports March 15, 2010 27% 42%
Research 2000 March 10, 2010 33% 48%
Rasmussen Reports February 15, 2010 34% 46%
PPIC January 27, 2010 29% 44%
Rasmussen Reports January 19, 2010 35% 45%
The Field Poll January 5–17, 2010 31% 48%
PPIC December 16, 2009 31% 47%
Rasmussen Reports November 17, 2009 32% 43%
The Field Poll September 18–Oct. 5, 2009 25% 50%
Rasmussen Reports September 24, 2009 32% 45%
Research 2000 August 9, 2009 34% 43%
Lake Research Partners February 17–19, 2009 30% 41%

Results

California gubernatorial election, 2010[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jerry Brown 5,428,149 53.8% +14.86%
Republican Meg Whitman 4,127,391 40.9% -15.00%
American Independent Chelene Nightingale 166,312 1.7% +0.94%
Libertarian Dale Ogden 150,895 1.5% +0.17%
Green Laura Wells 129,224 1.2% -1.09%
Peace and Freedom Carlos Alvarez 92,851 0.9% +0.11%
Write-in 363 0.00% ±0.00%
Total votes 10,095,185 100.0%
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "Statement of the Vote - November 2, 2010 General Election" (PDF). California Secretary of State.
  2. ^ Bunia, Dena (February 17, 2010). "Feinstein rules out race for governor". Orange County Register. Retrieved April 2, 2010.
  3. ^ Garofoli, Joe (February 17, 2010). "Feinstein won't make run for governor". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved April 2, 2010.
  4. ^ Coté, John (February 17, 2010). "It's official: Newsom's running for lieutenant governor". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
  5. ^ a b Whitman, Brown In The Hot Seat Over Negative Ads by Ina Jaffe.
  6. ^ Brown, Whitman Challenged to Pull Negative Ads in California Governor Race Archived 2014-01-18 at the Wayback Machine PBS Newshour, David Chalian and Terrance Burlij, October 27, 2010.
  7. ^ "PolitiCal". Los Angeles Times.
  8. ^ a b "How Jerry Brown got back in the governor's saddle", Ashley Fantz, CNN, November 3, 2010. Fetched from URL on November 3, 2010.
  9. ^ "PolitiCal". Los Angeles Times.
  10. ^ "Jobs, Meg Whitman for Governor". October 29, 2010. Archived from the original on May 18, 2010. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  11. ^ "JOBS FOR CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE". October 29, 2010. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  12. ^ "Education, Meg Whitman for Governor". October 29, 2010. Archived from the original on October 22, 2010. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  13. ^ "Education – Jerry Brown for Governor". October 29, 2010. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  14. ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  15. ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  16. ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  17. ^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  18. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

External links

Debates
Official campaign sites

Primary candidates: