2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

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Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout71.31%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 20 0
Popular vote 2,970,733 2,926,441
Percentage 48.18% 47.46%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States elections in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.

On April 26, 2016, in the presidential primaries, voters selected the Democratic, Republican, and Green parties' respective nominees for president. Pennsylvania is a closed primary state, meaning voters must have been previously registered with a particular political party in order to vote for one of that parties' candidates, to participate in their respective party primary.[1]

In the general election, Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million cast, a margin of 0.72% and the narrowest margin in a presidential election since 1840, when William Henry Harrison defeated Martin Van Buren by just 0.12%. Pennsylvania voted 2.82% more Republican than the nation-at-large, marking the first time since 1948 that it voted to the right of the nation.

Before the election, Pennsylvania was expected to be close as polling showed the results within the margin of error, but many election experts viewed that Clinton had an edge.[2][3] However, on Election Day, Pennsylvania unexpectedly swung to Donald Trump. Trump carried 56 of the state's 67 counties, predominantly rural or suburban counties, while Clinton carried much of the Philadelphia metropolitan area as well as other cities including Pittsburgh, Harrisburg and Scranton. Nonetheless, some areas of traditional Democratic strength such as Luzerne County, where Wilkes-Barre is located, saw swings in margins of up to 25% toward Donald Trump. He was the first Republican nominee for president to win the state of Pennsylvania since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Primaries

Democratic primary

Main article: 2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary
Results of the Democratic primary by county
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 26, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 935,107 55.61% 106 20 126
Bernie Sanders 731,881 43.53% 83 0 83
Rocky De La Fuente 14,439 0.86% 0 0 0
Total 1,681,427 100% 189 20 209
Source: [4][5]

Republican primary

Republican primary results by county
  Donald Trump
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Pennsylvania Republican primary, April 26, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 902,593 56.61% 17 42 59
Ted Cruz 345,506 21.67% 0 4 4
John Kasich 310,003 19.44% 0 3 3
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 14,842 0.93% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 11,954 0.75% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 9,577 0.60% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 5 5
Total: 1,594,475 100.00% 17 54 71
Source: The Green Papers

Green Party

Pennsylvania held a series of caucuses throughout April, culminating with a meeting on April 30 in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where delegates were assigned.[6][7]

Pennsylvania Green Party presidential caucuses, April 17, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein - - 8
William Kreml - - 1
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry - - -
Darryl Cherney - - -
Kent Mesplay - - -
Total - 100.00% 9

Democratic National Convention

From July 25 to July 28, 2016, Philadelphia hosted the 2016 Democratic National Convention. It was held at the Wells Fargo Center with ancillary meetings at the Pennsylvania Convention Center. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was chosen as the party's nominee for president by a 59.67% majority of delegates present at the convention roll call, winning the nomination, while runner-up rival Senator Bernie Sanders received 39.16% of votes from delegates. Clinton then became the first female candidate to be formally nominated by a major national party as a presidential candidate in the United States. Her running mate, Senator Tim Kaine, the junior United States senator from Virginia, was chosen by delegates as the party's nominee for vice president by acclamation.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
CNN[8] Lean D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[9] Lean D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[10] Lean D November 6, 2016
NBC[11] Lean D November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[12] Tossup November 6, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[13] Lean D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Lean D November 7, 2016

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican
2,970,733 48.18
Democratic
2,926,441 47.46
Libertarian
146,715 2.38
Green
49,941 0.81
Constitution
21,572 0.35
Independent
6,472 0.10
Independent Bernie Sanders (write-in) 6,060 0.10
Republican John Kasich (write-in) 302 0.00
Independent
3 0.00
Write-in 37,239 0.60
Total votes 6,165,478 100%
Republican win

By county

County[17] Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Gary Johnson
Libertarian 		Jill Stein
Green 		Darrell Castle
Constitution 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Adams 31,423 65.48% 14,219 29.63% 1,251 2.61% 405 0.84% 191 0.40% 501 1.04% 17,204 35.85% 47,990
Allegheny 259,480 39.48% 367,617 55.94% 16,102 2.45% 5,097 0.78% 1,818 0.28% 7,075 1.08% -108,137 -16.46% 657,189
Armstrong 23,484 73.70% 7,178 22.53% 685 2.15% 141 0.44% 130 0.41% 246 0.77% 16,306 51.17% 31,864
Beaver 48,167 57.03% 32,531 38.52% 2,022 2.39% 496 0.59% 355 0.42% 891 1.05% 15,636 18.51% 84,462
Bedford 19,552 82.59% 3,645 15.40% 260 1.10% 102 0.43% 78 0.33% 38 0.16% 15,907 67.19% 23,675
Berks 96,626 52.49% 78,437 42.61% 5,247 2.85% 1,974 1.07% 781 0.42% 1,020 0.55% 18,189 9.88% 184,085
Blair 39,135 70.72% 13,958 25.22% 1,256 2.27% 338 0.61% 222 0.40% 432 0.79% 25,177 45.50% 55,341
Bradford 18,141 69.81% 6,369 24.51% 893 3.44% 137 0.53% 168 0.65% 278 1.07% 11,772 45.30% 25,986
Bucks 164,361 47.64% 167,060 48.42% 8,556 2.48% 3,121 0.90% 1,199 0.35% 745 0.22% -2,699 -0.78% 345,042
Butler 64,431 65.71% 28,586 29.15% 3,064 3.12% 615 0.63% 382 0.39% 973 0.99% 35,845 36.56% 98,051
Cambria 42,258 66.45% 18,867 29.67% 1,270 2.00% 413 0.65% 264 0.42% 517 0.81% 23,391 36.78% 63,589
Cameron 1,589 71.90% 531 24.03% 53 2.40% 6 0.27% 7 0.32% 24 1.09% 1,058 47.87% 2,210
Carbon 18,743 64.65% 8,936 30.82% 691 2.38% 265 0.91% 141 0.49% 217 0.75% 9,807 33.83% 28,993
Centre 35,274 45.63% 37,088 47.97% 2,644 3.42% 798 1.03% 344 0.44% 1,159 0.94% -1,814 -2.34% 77,307
Chester 116,114 42.53% 141,682 51.90% 7,930 2.90% 2,247 0.82% 827 0.30% 4,198 1.54% -25,568 -9.37% 272,998
Clarion 12,576 71.21% 4,273 24.20% 469 2.66% 115 0.65% 102 0.58% 125 0.71% 8,303 47.01% 17,660
Clearfield 24,932 72.16% 8,200 23.73% 776 2.25% 220 0.64% 143 0.41% 279 0.81% 16,732 48.43% 34,550
Clinton 10,022 64.64% 4,744 30.60% 470 3.03% 121 0.78% 37 0.24% 111 0.71% 5,278 34.04% 15,505
Columbia 18,004 63.16% 8,934 31.34% 883 3.10% 265 0.93% 142 0.50% 278 0.97% 9,070 31.82% 28,506
Crawford 24,987 66.08% 10,971 29.01% 1,046 2.77% 271 0.72% 217 0.57% 321 0.85% 14,016 37.07% 37,813
Cumberland 69,076 55.94% 47,085 38.13% 3,975 3.22% 939 0.76% 542 0.44% 1,869 1.51% 21,991 17.81% 123,486
Dauphin 60,863 46.18% 64,706 49.10% 3,498 2.65% 1,177 0.89% 628 0.48% 911 0.69% -3,843 -2.92% 131,783
Delaware 110,667 36.97% 177,402 59.27% 5,992 2.00% 2,588 0.86% 985 0.33% 1,702 0.57% -66,735 -22.30% 299,336
Elk 10,025 68.91% 3,853 26.49% 401 2.76% 79 0.54% 68 0.47% 121 0.83% 6,172 42.42% 14,547
Erie 60,069 48.01% 58,112 46.44% 3,871 3.09% 1,139 0.91% 488 0.39% 1,450 1.16% 1,957 1.57% 125,129
Fayette 34,590 63.94% 17,946 33.17% 853 1.58% 232 0.43% 146 0.27% 332 0.61% 16,644 30.77% 54,099
Forest 1,684 69.59% 626 25.87% 60 2.48% 19 0.79% 13 0.54% 18 0.74% 1,058 43.72% 2,420
Franklin 49,768 70.59% 17,465 24.77% 1,712 2.43% 450 0.64% 336 0.48% 775 1.10% 32,303 45.82% 70,506
Fulton 5,694 83.47% 912 13.37% 93 1.36% 37 0.54% 35 0.51% 51 0.75% 4,782 70.10% 6,822
Greene 10,849 68.37% 4,482 28.25% 284 1.79% 83 0.52% 66 0.42% 104 0.66% 6,367 40.12% 15,868
Huntingdon 14,494 72.96% 4,539 22.85% 425 2.14% 96 0.48% 152 0.77% 160 0.81% 9,955 50.11% 19,866
Indiana 24,888 65.29% 11,528 30.24% 936 2.46% 220 0.58% 198 0.52% 352 0.92% 13,360 35.05% 38,122
Jefferson 15,192 77.53% 3,650 18.63% 432 2.20% 110 0.56% 94 0.48% 117 0.60% 11,542 58.90% 19,595
Juniata 8,273 78.45% 1,821 17.27% 201 1.91% 71 0.67% 88 0.83% 91 0.86% 6,452 61.18% 10,545
Lackawanna 48,384 46.34% 51,983 49.79% 1,935 1.85% 896 0.86% 258 0.25% 948 0.91% -3,599 -3.45% 104,404
Lancaster 137,914 56.33% 91,093 37.21% 8,555 3.49% 2,021 0.83% 1,529 0.62% 3,720 1.52% 46,821 19.12% 244,832
Lawrence 25,428 61.90% 14,009 34.11% 870 2.12% 248 0.60% 198 0.48% 323 0.79% 11,419 27.79% 41,076
Lebanon 40,525 64.84% 18,953 30.32% 1,647 2.64% 422 0.68% 298 0.48% 658 1.05% 21,572 34.52% 62,503
Lehigh 73,690 45.28% 81,324 49.97% 4,027 2.47% 1,402 0.86% 550 0.34% 1,740 1.07% -7,634 -4.69% 162,733
Luzerne 78,688 57.90% 52,451 38.60% 2,339 1.72% 1,178 0.87% 327 0.24% 918 0.68% 26,237 19.30% 135,901
Lycoming 35,627 69.68% 13,020 25.46% 1,311 2.56% 384 0.75% 223 0.44% 566 1.11% 22,607 44.22% 51,131
McKean 11,635 70.67% 4,025 24.45% 408 2.48% 151 0.92% 77 0.47% 168 1.02% 7,610 46.22% 16,464
Mercer 31,544 59.70% 18,733 35.45% 1,370 2.59% 415 0.79% 247 0.47% 530 1.00% 12,811 24.25% 52,839
Mifflin 14,094 75.28% 3,877 20.71% 476 2.54% 80 0.43% 74 0.40% 120 0.64% 10,217 54.57% 18,721
Monroe 33,386 47.69% 33,918 48.45% 1,502 2.15% 758 1.08% 188 0.27% 256 0.36% -532 -0.76% 70,008
Montgomery 162,731 37.10% 256,082 58.38% 10,934 2.49% 3,704 0.84% 1,236 0.28% 3,965 0.90% -93,351 -21.28% 438,652
Montour 5,288 61.80% 2,857 33.39% 287 3.35% 73 0.85% 51 0.60% 0 0.00% 2,431 28.41% 8,556
Northampton 71,736 49.62% 66,275 45.84% 3,690 2.55% 1,371 0.95% 450 0.31% 1,047 0.72% 5,461 3.78% 144,569
Northumberland 25,427 68.89% 9,788 26.52% 931 2.52% 296 0.80% 180 0.49% 285 0.77% 15,639 42.37% 36,907
Perry 15,616 73.07% 4,632 21.67% 619 2.90% 163 0.76% 128 0.60% 213 1.00% 10,984 51.40% 21,371
Philadelphia 108,748 15.32% 584,025 82.30% 7,115 1.00% 6,679 0.94% 1,064 0.15% 1,987 0.28% -475,277 -66.98% 709,618
Pike 16,061 61.06% 9,268 35.24% 494 1.88% 226 0.86% 71 0.27% 183 0.70% 6,793 25.82% 26,303
Potter 6,251 79.49% 1,302 16.56% 165 2.10% 35 0.45% 31 0.39% 80 1.01% 4,949 62.93% 7,864
Schuylkill 44,001 69.42% 16,770 26.46% 1,414 2.23% 449 0.71% 235 0.37% 516 0.81% 27,231 42.96% 63,385
Snyder 11,725 71.12% 4,002 24.28% 455 2.76% 111 0.67% 70 0.42% 123 0.75% 7,723 46.84% 16,486
Somerset 27,379 75.90% 7,376 20.45% 678 1.88% 166 0.46% 174 0.48% 300 0.83% 20,003 55.45% 36,073
Sullivan 2,291 72.68% 750 23.79% 65 2.06% 14 0.44% 16 0.51% 16 0.51% 1,541 48.89% 3,152
Susquehanna 12,891 67.69% 5,123 26.90% 568 2.98% 192 1.01% 89 0.47% 180 0.95% 7,768 40.79% 19,043
Tioga 13,614 73.56% 3,901 21.08% 548 2.96% 139 0.75% 123 0.66% 182 0.98% 9,713 52.48% 18,507
Union 10,622 60.02% 6,180 34.92% 450 2.54% 143 0.81% 73 0.41% 228 1.29% 4,442 25.43% 17,696
Venango 16,021 68.09% 6,309 26.81% 733 3.12% 149 0.63% 136 0.58% 182 0.77% 9,712 41.28% 23,530
Warren 12,477 67.06% 5,145 27.65% 549 2.95% 130 0.70% 133 0.71% 172 0.92% 7,332 39.41% 18,606
Washington 61,386 60.03% 36,322 35.52% 2,643 2.58% 733 0.72% 366 0.36% 817 0.80% 25,064 24.51% 102,267
Wayne 16,244 67.63% 7,008 29.18% 466 1.94% 206 0.86% 94 0.39% 0 0.00% 9,236 38.45% 24,018
Westmoreland 116,522 63.50% 59,669 32.52% 4,367 2.38% 936 0.51% 557 0.30% 1,441 0.79% 56,853 30.98% 183,492
Wyoming 8,837 66.63% 3,811 28.74% 323 2.44% 116 0.87% 57 0.43% 118 0.89% 5,026 37.89% 13,262
York 128,528 61.78% 68,524 32.94% 6,484 3.12% 1,568 0.75% 882 0.42% 2,043 0.98% 60,004 28.84% 208,029
Totals 2,970,742 48.17% 2,926,458 47.45% 146,719 2.38% 49,941 0.81% 21,572 0.35% 51,506 0.83% 44,284 0.72% 6,166,938
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including one which elected a Democrat, while Clinton won six, including two that elected a Republican.[18]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1 18% 80% Bob Brady
2 8% 90% Chaka Fattah
Dwight Evans
3 61% 35% Mike Kelly
4 59% 37% Scott Perry
5 62% 34% Glenn Thompson
6 48% 48% Ryan Costello
7 47% 49% Patrick Meehan
8 48% 48% Mike Fitzpatrick
Brian Fitzpatrick
9 70% 27% Bill Shuster
10 66% 30% Tom Marino
11 60% 36% Lou Barletta
12 59% 38% Keith Rothfus
13 32% 65% Brendan Boyle
14 31% 66% Mike Doyle
15 52% 44% Charlie Dent
16 51% 44% Joe Pitts
Lloyd Smucker
17 53% 43% Matt Cartwright
18 58% 39% Tim Murphy

Analysis

2016 was the first presidential election since 1948 in which the Democratic nominee won the popular vote without the state. Pennsylvania's vote for Donald Trump, along with that of Wisconsin and Michigan, marked the fall of the Democratic Blue Wall, a bloc of over 240 electoral votes that voted solidly Democratic from 1992 to 2012. Pennsylvania was one of the eleven states to have voted twice for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 which Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. Although Wisconsin eventually delivered the Trump victory, when the Clinton campaign learned that they had lost Pennsylvania, they knew that they had lost the election.[19] While political analysts generally agree that Clinton met her turnout targets for Democratic voters, especially among the key counties of Bucks and Montgomery, Republican voter turnout was unexpectedly high in 2016, leading to a Trump win regardless of the Clinton campaign hitting their targets.[20] Trump became the first Republican ever to win the White House without carrying Chester or Dauphin Counties, as well as the first to do so without carrying Centre County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and the first to do so without carrying Monroe County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. He also became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania without carrying any of Philadelphia's suburban counties. Trump was the first Republican nominee for president to win the Luzerne and Northampton counties since 1988. He was the first Republican to win Erie County since 1984.

See also

References

  1. ^ "About Voting and Elections". Votespa.com. May 19, 2015. Archived from the original on April 8, 2016. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
  2. ^ "Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein". realclearpolitics.com. November 5, 2016.
  3. ^ "Clinton Has Solid Lead in Electoral College; Trump's Winning Map Is Unclear". The New York Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved October 30, 2018. The final nonpartisan live interview polls there show Mrs. Clinton ahead by a comfortable margin of four to six points. The state will probably be close, but it's quite clear that she has the edge.
  4. ^ The Green Papers
  5. ^ Pennsylvania State Elections Official Results
  6. ^ "2016 PA Green Party Caucus Information and Schedule". Pennsylvania Green Party. April 9, 2016. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
  7. ^ "#Greens, join us in caucusing and voting for our GP of PA Presidential Candidates in April". Pennsylvania Green Party. April 9, 2016. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
  8. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  9. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on February 7, 2019. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  10. ^ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  11. ^ Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  12. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  13. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  14. ^ Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  15. ^ Federal Election Commission (December 2017). "Federal Elections 2016" (PDF). p. 39. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  16. ^ "Kathleen Monahan". Ballotpedia. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  17. ^ "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Pennsylvania".
  18. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
  19. ^ Burstein, Nanette (Director) (March 6, 2020). Episode 4 - Be Our Champion, Go Away (Documentary). Hillary. Hulu.
  20. ^ Sides, John. Campaign and Elections, Fourth Edition (Fourth ed.). W.W. Norton and Company. p. 132.

Further reading

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