2016 United States Senate election in California

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2016 United States Senate election in California

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Candidate Kamala Harris Loretta Sanchez
Party Democratic Democratic
Popular vote 7,542,753 4,701,417
Percentage 61.60% 38.40%

Harris:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Sanchez:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Barbara Boxer
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Kamala Harris
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in California was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of California, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Under California's nonpartisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the primary, voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. In the California system, the top two finishers—regardless of party—advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary election. Washington and Louisiana have similar "jungle primary" style processes for senators.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer decided to not run for reelection to a fifth term.[1] This was the first open seat Senate election in California since 1992, when Boxer was first elected.[2] In the primary on June 7, 2016, California Attorney General Kamala Harris and U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez, both Democrats, finished in first and second place, respectively, and contested the general election. For the first time since direct elections to the Senate began after the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment in 1913, no Republican appeared on the general election ballot for U.S. Senate in California. The highest Republican finisher in the primary won only 7.8 percent of the vote, and the 10 Republicans only won 27.9 percent of the vote among them.[3]

In the general election, Harris defeated Sanchez in a landslide, carrying 54 of the state's 58 counties, including Sanchez's home county of Orange, although Sanchez held Harris to a margin of less than 1% in the Central Valley counties of Kern and Merced. Harris served in the Senate for roughly 4 years as she resigned after being elected Vice President in 2020.

Background

Barbara Boxer was reelected with 52.1% of the vote in 2010 against Republican Carly Fiorina. Toward the end of 2014, Boxer's low fundraising and cash-on-hand numbers led to speculation that she would retire.[4][5] On January 8, 2015, she announced that she would not run for reelection.[1]

Candidates

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Cristina Grappo[8]
  • Massie Munroe, engineer[8]
  • Herbert G. Peters[8]
  • Emory Rodgers, activist[9]
  • Steve Stokes, small business owner and independent candidate for CA-28 in 2014[10]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Kamala Harris
Federal politicians
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations
Loretta Sánchez
Federal politicians
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations

Republican Party

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Rocky Chávez
State politicians
Organizations
  • Deputy Sheriff's Association of San Diego County[135]
Duf Sundheim
Federal politicians
State politicians
Businesspeople
Organizations
  • California Small Business Association[139]
Tom Del Beccaro

Green Party

Declared

  • Pamela Elizondo[8]

Libertarian Party

Declared

Peace and Freedom Party

Declared

  • John Thompson Parker[8]

Independent

Declared

Declined

Primary election

Fundraising

The following are Federal Election Commission disclosures through the reporting period ending March 31, 2016.

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Kamala Harris (D) $9,749,024 $4,759,048 $4,989,977 $78,900
Loretta Sánchez (D) $3,251,186 $921,291 $2,329,895 $209,217
Tom Del Beccaro (R) $316,560 $238,612 $77,946 $74,465
George 'Duf' Sundheim (R) $532,638 $475,415 $57,222 $181,640
Phillip Wyman (R) $48,900 $11,761 $30,737 $40,000
Clive Grey (NPP) $38,916 $21,554 $17,361 $25,000
Greg Conlon (R) $21,205 $13,396 $7,809 $9,575
Mike Beitiks (NPP) $6,305 $4,860 $1,444 $0
Steve Stokes (D) $4,864 $4,351 $762 $4,742
Emory Rodgers (D) $7,246 $6,988 $290 $0
Tom Palzer (R) $2,783 $2,442 $241 $0

Polling

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Del Beccaro (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Loretta
Sánchez (D)
Duf
Sundheim (R)
Ron
Unz (R)
Other Undecided
Marist College May 29–31, 2016 2,485 ± 2.3% 8% 37% 19% 5% 5% 3% 24%
The Field Poll Archived June 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine May 26–31, 2016 1,002 ± 3.1% 4% 30% 14% 3% 3% 19% 27%
Public Policy Institute of California Archived August 10, 2019, at the Wayback Machine May 13–22, 2016 996 ± 4.3% 8% 27% 19% 3% 6% 22%
SurveyUSA May 19–22, 2016 1,416 ± 2.7% 9% 31% 22% 9% 7% 7% 15%
Public Policy Institute of California May 13–22, 2016 996 ± 4.3% 8% 27% 19% 3% 6% 6% 31%
Hoover Institution May 4–16, 2016 1,196 6% 26% 13% 6% 6% 43%
SurveyUSA April 27–30, 2016 2,400 ± 2.6% 10% 29% 18% 7% 8% 6% 22%
SurveyUSA March 30 – April 3, 2016 1,269 ± 2.8% 8% 26% 22% 5% 7% 24%
The Field Poll Archived April 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine March 24 – April 4, 2016 1,400 ± 3.2% 4% 27% 14% 2% 5% 48%
Los Angeles Times March 16–23, 2016 691 10% 33% 15% 8% 34%
Public Policy Institute of California March 6–15, 2016 1,710 ± 3.6% 9% 26% 17% 6% 11% 31%
The Field Poll December 15, 2015 – January 3, 2016 730 ± 3.6% 3% 27% 15% 3% 1% 44%
The Field Poll September 17 – October 4, 2015 694 ± 4.3% 6% 30% 17% 3% 1% 34%
Los Angeles Times August 29 – September 8, 2015 1,500 ± 2.8% 10% 26% 17% 35%
The Field Poll April 23 – May 16, 2015 801 ± 3.5% 5% 19% 8% 1% 58%
Hypothetical polling
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rocky
Chavez (R)
David
Dreier (R)
John
Estrada (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Adam
Schiff (D)
Ashley
Swearengin (R)
Meg
Whitman (R)
Other Unde-
cided
Emerson College Archived November 7, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 2–8, 2015 881 ± 3.2% 9% 1% 1% 23% 2% 4% 13% 7% 41%
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rocky
Chavez (R)
Del Beccaro/
Sundheim (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Adam
Schiff (D)
Ashley
Swearengin (R)
Antonio
Villaraigosa (D)
Other Undecided
USC Archived March 2, 2015, at the Wayback Machine February 18–24, 2015 1,505 ± 2.7% 6% 5.5%[166] 28% 5% 9% 19% 2% 27%
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Bono (R)
David
Dreier (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Adam
Schiff (D)
Antonio
Villaraigosa (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[167][168] February 6–8, 2015 824 ± ? 14% 19% 34% 4% 16% 14%
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kamala
Harris (D)
Adam
Schiff (D)
Ashley
Swearengin (R)
Antonio
Villaraigosa (D)
Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Archived February 4, 2015, at the Wayback Machine[169][170][171] January 27–29, 2015 600 ± 4 28% 4% 31% 18% 19%
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Xavier
Becerra (D)
Rocky
Chavez (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Condoleezza
Rice (R)
Loretta
Sanchez (D)
Antonio
Villaraigosa (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[172] January 22, 2015 627 ± ? 3% 2% 34% 33% 4% 9% 15%
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Eric
Garcetti (D)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Neel
Kashkari (R)
Tom
McClintock (R)
Linda
Sánchez (D)
Jackie
Speier (D)
Tom
Steyer (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[173] December 29–30, 2014 401 ± ? 7% 27% 12% 28% 6% 6% 14%
468 22% 12% 29% 8% 8% 4% 17%

Results

Results of the primary election held June 7:
  Harris
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Sanchez
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Wyman
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
Primary results[174]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kamala Harris 3,000,689 37.9%
Democratic Loretta Sanchez 1,416,203 17.9%
Republican Duf Sundheim 584,251 7.8%
Republican Phil Wyman 352,821 4.7%
Republican Tom Del Beccaro 323,614 4.3%
Republican Greg Conlon 230,944 3.1%
Democratic Steve Stokes 168,805 2.2%
Republican George C. Yang 112,055 1.5%
Republican Karen Roseberry 110,557 1.5%
Libertarian Gail K. Lightfoot 99,761 1.3%
Democratic Massie Munroe 98,150 1.3%
Green Pamela Elizondo 95,677 1.3%
Republican Tom Palzer 93,263 1.2%
Republican Ron Unz 92,325 1.2%
Republican Don Krampe 69,635 0.9%
No party preference Eleanor García 65,084 0.9%
Republican Jarrell Williamson 64,120 0.9%
Republican Von Hougo 63,609 0.8%
Democratic President Cristina Grappo 63,330 0.8%
Republican Jerry J. Laws 53,023 0.7%
Libertarian Mark Matthew Herd 41,344 0.6%
Peace and Freedom John Thompson Parker 35,998 0.5%
No party preference Ling Ling Shi 35,196 0.5%
Democratic Herbert G. Peters 32,638 0.4%
Democratic Emory Peretz Rodgers 31,485 0.4%
No party preference Mike Beitiks 31,450 0.4%
No party preference Clive Grey 29,418 0.4%
No party preference Jason Hanania 27,715 0.4%
No party preference Paul Merritt 24,031 0.3%
No party preference Jason Kraus 19,318 0.3%
No party preference Don J. Grundmann 15,317 0.2%
No party preference Scott A. Vineberg 11,843 0.2%
No party preference Tim Gildersleeve 9,798 0.1%
No party preference Gar Myers 8,726 0.1%
Republican Billy Falling (write-in) 87 0.0%
No party preference Ric M. Llewellyn (write-in) 32 0.0%
Republican Alexis Stuart (write-in) 10 0.0%
Total votes 7,512,322 100.0%

General election

Fundraising

The following are Federal Election Commission disclosures through the reporting period ending March 31, 2016.

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Kamala Harris (D) $9,749,024 $4,759,048 $4,989,977 $78,900
Loretta Sánchez (D) $3,251,186 $921,291 $2,329,895 $209,217

Debates

Dates Location Harris Sanchez Link
October 9, 2016 Cal State LA, Los Angeles, California Participant Participant Full debateC-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[175] Safe D (Harris) September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[176] Safe D (Harris) September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[177] Safe D (Harris) September 2, 2016
Daily Kos[178] Safe D (Harris) September 16, 2016
Real Clear Politics[179] Safe D (Harris) September 15, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kamala
Harris (D)
Loretta
Sánchez (D)
Would
not vote
Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 2,712 ± 4.6% 52% 31% 17%
Insights West Archived November 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 4–6, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 50% 28% 22%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2016 2,655 ± 4.6% 51% 32% 17%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2016 2,528 ± 4.6% 51% 31% 18%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2016 2,316 ± 4.6% 51% 31% 18%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2016 2,284 ± 4.6% 51% 30% 19%
SurveyUSA October 28–31, 2016 747 ± 3.7% 47% 27% 26%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 2,505 ± 4.6% 50% 30% 20%
The Field Poll Archived November 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 25–31, 2016 1,498 ± 3.2% 47% 23% 13% 17%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times October 22–30, 2016 697 ± 3.7% 48% 31% 9% 12%
PPIC Statewide Survey October 14–23, 2016 1,024 ± 4.3% 42% 20% 18% 20%
SurveyUSA October 13–15, 2016 725 ± 3.7% 45% 24% 31%
Hoover Institution – Golden State Poll October 4–14, 2016 1,228 ± 3.3% 41% 22% 37%
Sacramento State/CA Counts Archived October 24, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 7–13, 2016 622 ± 7.0% 49% 24% 7% 20%
SurveyUSA September 27–28, 2016 751 ± 3.6% 40% 29% 31%
PPIC Statewide Survey September 9–18, 2016 1,702 ± 3.5% 32% 25% 24% 19%
Insights West Archived August 11, 2019, at the Wayback Machine September 12–14, 2016 515 ± 4.3% 42% 28% 3% 28%
The Field Poll Archived October 1, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 7–13, 2016 1,426 ± 3.2% 42% 20% 12% 26%
SurveyUSA September 8–11, 2016 712 ± 3.7% 44% 27% 29%
SurveyMonkey USC/Los Angeles Times September 1–8, 2016 4,212 ± 2.0% 30% 16% 16% 38%
Sacramento State/CA Counts August 15–24, 2016 915 ± 4.0% 51% 19% 6% 25%
SmithJohnson Research Archived October 28, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 17–19, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 41% 15% 8% 36%
PPIC Statewide Survey July 10–19, 2016 1,056 ± 3.5% 38% 20% 28% 14%
The Field Poll Archived August 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 8 – July 2, 2016 956 ± 3.2% 39% 24% 15% 22%
SurveyMonkey USC/Los Angeles Times June 9–10, 2016 1,553 ± 3.5% 47% 22% 26% 5%
The Field Poll Archived June 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine May 26–31, 2016 1,002 ± 3.1% 40% 26% 14% 20%
PPIC Statewide Survey Archived August 10, 2019, at the Wayback Machine May 13–22, 2016 996 ± 4.3% 34% 26% 24% 15%
Gravis Marketing April 7–10, 2016 2,088 ± 2.1% 29% 19% 52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kamala
Harris (D)
David
Dreier (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[167][168] February 6–8, 2015 824 ± ? 47% 42% 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Eric
Garcetti (D)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[173] December 29–30, 2014 869 ± ? 20% 35% 46%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kamala
Harris (D)
Antonio
Villaraigosa (D)
Other Undecided
USC Archived March 2, 2015, at the Wayback Machine February 18–24, 2015 1,505 ± 2.7% 45% 27% 3% 24%
Public Policy Polling[167][168] February 6–8, 2015 824 ± ? 45% 23% 33%
Public Policy Polling[172] January 22, 2015 627 ± ? 41% 16% 43%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Adam
Schiff (D)
David
Dreier (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[167][168] February 6–8, 2015 824 ± ? 43% 42% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Antonio
Villaraigosa (D)
David
Dreier (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[167][168] February 6–8, 2015 824 ± ? 46% 44% 10%

Results

United States Senate election in California, 2016[180]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kamala Harris 7,542,753 61.60%
Democratic Loretta Sanchez 4,701,417 38.40%
Total votes 12,244,170 100.00%
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Harris won 47 of the 53 congressional districts, including thirteen held by Republicans. Sanchez won 6, including one held by a Republican and five held by Democrats.[181]

District Sanchez Harris Representative
1st 40.3% 59.7% Doug LaMalfa
2nd 26.2% 73.8% Jared Huffman
3rd 37.6% 62.4% John Garamendi
4th 36.7% 63.3% Tom McClintock
5th 29.8% 70.2% Mike Thompson
6th 32.8% 67.2% Doris Matsui
7th 34.7% 65.3% Ami Bera
8th 44.9% 55.1% Paul Cook
9th 41.0% 59.0% Jerry McNerney
10th 42.9% 57.1% Jeff Denham
11th 29.4% 70.6% Mark DeSaulnier
12th 21.3% 78.7% Nancy Pelosi
13th 19.1% 80.9% Barbara Lee
14th 29.1% 70.9% Jackie Speier
15th 30.2% 69.8% Eric Swalwell
16th 51.2% 48.8% Jim Costa
17th 32.0% 68.0% Mike Honda
Ro Khanna
18th 26.2% 73.8% Anna Eshoo
19th 40.9% 59.1% Zoe Lofgren
20th 33.8% 66.2% Sam Farr
Jimmy Panetta
21st 56.7% 43.3% David Valadao
22nd 47.3% 52.7% Devin Nunes
23rd 45.7% 54.3% Kevin McCarthy
24th 38.3% 61.7% Lois Capps
Salud Carbajal
25th 39.9% 60.1% Steve Knight
26th 39.2% 60.8% Julia Brownley
27th 37.9% 62.1% Judy Chu
28th 33.9% 66.1% Adam Schiff
29th 47% 53% Tony Cárdenas
30th 33.5% 66.5% Brad Sherman
31st 42.8% 57.2% Pete Aguilar
32nd 48.6% 51.4% Grace Napolitano
33rd 29.1% 70.9% Ted Lieu
34th 44.6% 55.4% Xavier Becerra
35th 49.8% 50.2% Norma Torres
36th 43.8% 56.2% Raul Ruiz
37th 25.7% 74.3% Karen Bass
38th 50.9% 49.1% Linda Sánchez
39th 45.9% 54.1% Ed Royce
40th 56.4% 43.6% Lucille Roybal-Allard
41st 47% 53% Mark Takano
42nd 45.4% 54.6% Ken Calvert
43rd 33.3% 66.7% Maxine Waters
44th 45.4% 54.6% Janice Hahn
Nanette Barragán
45th 41.1% 58.9% Mimi Walters
46th 58.7% 41.3% Loretta Sánchez
Lou Correa
47th 42.3% 57.7% Alan Lowenthal
48th 43.6% 56.4% Dana Rohrabacher
49th 39.7% 60.3% Darrell Issa
50th 45.1% 54.9% Duncan Hunter
51st 56.6% 43.4% Juan Vargas
52nd 36.5% 63.5% Scott Peters
53rd 40% 60% Susan Davis

Analysis

Harris stepped down from her Senate seat on January 18, 2021, two days before her inauguration as Vice President. This makes Harris the first US Senator elected to a full six-year term since Barack Obama in 2008 to not finish what would be her sole term. On December 22, 2020, California governor Gavin Newsom appointed California secretary of state Alex Padilla to serve the remainder of Harris' term.[182] Although Harris no longer occupies this Senate seat, she became President of the Senate on January 20, 2021, by virtue of her election as vice president.

Harris is the second incumbent US Senator from this seat to be elected vice president, the first being Richard Nixon in 1952.

See also

References

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  2. ^ a b c d Ballhaus, Rebecca (January 8, 2015). "The Contenders: Who Will Run for Barbara Boxer's Senate Seat?". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved January 8, 2015.
  3. ^ Myers, John (June 8, 2016). "Two Democrats will face off for California's U.S. Senate seat, marking first time a Republican will not be in contention". Los Angeles Times.
  4. ^ a b c d e "Barbara Boxer re-election run looking unlikely". SFGate. September 7, 2014. Retrieved September 7, 2014.
  5. ^ a b "Who will become California's next governor and U.S. senators?". Los Angeles Times. November 10, 2014. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  6. ^ Sean Sullivan (January 12, 2015). "Kamala Harris to run for Boxer's Senate seat". Washington Post.
  7. ^ French, Lauren; Bresnahan, John (May 12, 2015). "Sanchez to challenge Harris for California Senate". Politico. Retrieved May 12, 2015.
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v California Secretary of State Office. "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices, June 7, 2016 Presidential Primary Election" (PDF).
  9. ^ "Notice to Candidates – United States Senate" (PDF).
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External links

Official campaign websites